By OTIENO OTIENO

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Kenya's former prime minister Raila Odinga has spent the past three weeks trying to reassure his supporters that his retreat or exit from national politics, in the event he becomes the African Union Commission (AUC) chairman next year, would not create a leadership vacuum in the opposition.

On Thursday, he told a membership recruitment rally for his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in the northern Kenya country of Wajir that he would entrust the political party’s leadership to his two deputies Wycliffe Oparanya and Ali Hassan Joho if he were to take up the job at the Addis Ababa-based AUC.

Mr Oparanya and Mr Joho are political heavyweights in their own right, having served two terms each as county governors and members of parliament.

Either man would, however, have a considerable challenge uniting a political party that has perhaps the most diverse or multiethnic support base in the country behind him.

Read: Kenya ruling coalition happy to see Raila off to Addis

A spin-off from the ‘No’ movement that defeated a government-backed constitutional referendum in 2005, ODM has been the dominant political party in at least four of the country’s eight major regions – Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi.

It also enjoys a significant following among the historically marginalised communities in Rift Valley and Northern Kenya.

The problem for Mr Odinga’s prospective successors is that much of that has been down to the charisma and organisational acumen of the man they will be seeking to take over from.

Also, none of them boasts control of a major ethnic voting bloc — a popular platform often used by Kenyan leaders to launch their careers in national politics, build political parties or bargain for positions in political alliances. The former prime minister, the scion of Kenya’s founding vice-president Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, has particularly mastered this political playbook, making surprise moves at every turn to reinvent himself and forge new alliances in search of power.

Mr Odinga’s latest rapprochement with President William Ruto — including winning government backing for the AUC candidature — after seeking to deligitimise the latter’s presidency for over a year has triggered jitters in the opposition Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party about an imminent fallout.

Some political allies of former vice-president Kalonzo Musyoka, the presumptive opposition presidential candidate in 2027, recently accused ODM of plotting to abandon the coalition initially of 23 parties formed in the run-up to the 2022 elections to back Mr Odinga’s candidature.

Read: Ruto hopes he will face Kalonzo in the 2027 race

They cited public statements attributed to politicians close to Odinga quoting Musyoka’s ability to take on President Ruto given the former vice-president’s perceived preference for diplomacy over aggressive politics.

The former prime minister has in the past sought to calm anxiety about his moves, saying he would have no problem endorsing Mr Musyoka for the presidency in the next elections, if he were to be nominated by the coalition.

But the parallels being drawn between his political truce with Ruto -- publicly dramatised by the duo visiting Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni together at his Kisozi country home on February 26 -- and the famous Handshake with then President Uhuru Kenyatta six years ago are unlikely to inspire confidence in Musyoka’s supporters.

Like the March 2018 Handshake, the new unlikely Ruto-Raila political bromance could also shake up the opposition and trigger major political realignments.