By OTIENO OTIENO

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Thursday’s declaration by Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga that he would be seeking to be the next African Union Commission (AUC) chairman next year has sparked speculation that he is retiring from national politics.

The anticipation of an Odinga retirement is fuelled by the fact that as AUC boss, if he succeeds, he would not be eligible to run for the presidency a sixth time in the 2027 election unless he leaves before the end of his four-year term in Adis Ababa, the AU headquarters.

The veteran politician, who will be 82 in 2027, has in the past also come under pressure from some elements within his Azimio One Kenya Alliance coalition to endorse a younger candidate to face President William Ruto in the next election.

Read: Ruto hopes he will face Kalonzo in the 2027 race

Short of a confirmation by Mr Odinga himself, many political analysts will be hesitant to bet on an exit by a politician described as ‘an enigma in Kenyan politics’ by his Nigerian biographer Babafemi Badejo.

But for his rivals in national politics like President Ruto, who is understood to be backing the opposition leader’s candidature, even a few weeks’ absence from the scene would be welcome.

Orchestrating Odinga’s exit through a busy AU job would be a major political coup for Ruto, whose allies have in the past pushed for the withholding of the opposition leader’s State pension perks to try to force him out of national politics.

He is entitled to a monthly pension equivalent to 80 percent of his last salary, security, medical insurance and a diplomatic passport, by virtue of having served as prime minister between 2008 and 2013.

Ruto allies, including ruling coalition MPs, were furious with the former prime minister’s leading role in the anti-government protests that shut down the economy in Nairobi and other towns.

Since he emerged as a political force in the 1990s, Odinga has dictated the country’s politics, whether as an influential opposition party leader or a powerful outsider in a coalition government.

He has unsuccessfully contested elections against four of Kenya’s five presidents – Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto – running three of them close. He has recently kept both his political allies and rivals guessing with his resurgent mobilisation activities to enrol members into his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party.

Read: 4 years of tension for Kenya parties eyeing 2027 votes

President Ruto would surely be glad to see the back of Odinga.

Although he claims he has been rigged out in four elections and challenged the outcomes of the past three in the Supreme Court, his best shots at the presidency were seen to be in 2007 and 2022 when he trailed the respective winners – Kibaki by about 200,000 votes.

While 2022 was widely expected to be his last presidential bid, according to media reports of the negotiations around the choosing of a candidate for the Azimio coalition’s candidate in that year’s election, he has recently kept both his political allies and rivals guessing with his resurgent mobilisation activities to enrol members into his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party.

His elder brother, Oburu Oginga, a senator and a former member of the East African Legislative Assembly who is so often the sounding board for the opposition leader’s political moves, last week said Odinga was not too old to run for presidency in 2027.

With none of the opposition leaders currently vying to succeed Odinga boasting his national following and mobilisation ability, the former prime minister was still being seen by many in Azimio as well the ruling Kwanza coalition as Ruto’s strongest challenger.