By AGGREY MUTAMBO

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Raila Odinga has always been an enigma in Kenyan politics. His performance abroad? Debatable, even when he was assigned by the African Union.

But, on Thursday, he said he was going for the African Union Commission Chairperson seat. One diplomat initially gave a brutal rating of a Raila candidacy but tampered it with an ‘if’.

“It is very important in that business that the candidate come from the East African region. I just wonder what the appetite is for him. He will need 34 votes,” said the diplomat who is involved in some of the African Union programmes.

The election is due early next year but the programme to replace the incumbent, Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad, is set to begin soon as candidates express their desire and file the applications.

In Kenya, some already saw a Raila candidacy as a project by the government of President William Ruto to provide a suitable exit for a politician who has been a vocal critic of its programmes and has contested for presidency five times in vain.

Read: Kenya ruling coalition happy to see Raila off to Addis

If he wins next year, the next General Election in Kenya in 2027 will find him with two years on his term, a trapdoor of some sort: At the AU, former Chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma refused to contest a second term in 2017, eyeing South African presidency. She lost both.

It will expose him to further political humiliation if he loses in a race where losers hardly recover their political careers elsewhere. Nairobi hopes he wins and officials are preparing a special team to market Odinga, who will also be provided with state resources to campaign, sources say.

Candidates need endorsements from their respective governments, something Raila already has, and will need to enter a series of horse-trading with neighbours or countries who belong to the same regional economic blocs such as the EAC or the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

The current AU Deputy Commission Chair, Dr Monique Nsanzabaganwa, is from Rwanda, which is grouped among Eastern Africa countries. Raila’s immediate headache is to rally East African neighbours where Nairobi has suffered outright rejection (as in Sudan) or has trading disputes (like with Uganda).

Raila told a news conference on Thursday his previous stint as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development gave him a good viewpoint to “learn about every country”.

Faki praised “Raila’s strong commitment to the ideals of Pan-Africanism and African integration” when he appointed him in 2019.

But that stint ended controversially last year, after Nairobi requested the AU to sack him, then Kenyan diplomats humiliated him further by sharing the termination letter on social media. Still, Raila downplayed it, arguing he had, in fact, asked out of the job months earlier.

Raila worked for the AU before. In January 2011, he flew to Abidjan as the AU mediator to resolve the political crisis between Laurent Gbagbo and Allasane Ouattara in a post-election dispute. Gbagbo’s side accused him of bias and he quit the role, which Washington had pushed for, including hiring a jet for him.

Read: Intrigues that cost Kenya’s Raila top AU job

Contesting the AUC position means Raila banks on domestic and regional experience like this one. But it also means he re-enter the calculations often witnessed at elections at the AU. On Thursday, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, the current AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, said Raila will help the continental body work better.

“The AU, if it will serve the purpose that is meant to serve, requires the right person at the right time. We need a person who has experience, who understands the situation we are in, who comes from a background that can make a difference,” Obasanjo said.
“I have no doubt in my mind that my friend could be the right candidate. That, of course is subject to views, feelings, position and presentation of our leaders in the East African sub-region.”

We understand Obasanjo had been one of the top contacts who had been sending feelers across the region on the feasibility of a Raila candidature. He also admitted to having helped reach a political truce between President William Ruto and Raila, both of whom were fierce rivals at the 2022 General Election.

With domestic rivalry sorted out, Raila will still need something more: His acceptability abroad. Each African Union member has one vote.

But “coup states” like Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger are suspended. Unless they are re-instated this year, they won’t vote.

So far, we don’t know if anyone else in the region will go for the seat but the grapevine names former Uganda vice-president Speciosa Kazibwe and former Tanzania president Jakaya Kikwete, as well as former Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta as possible contenders.

“People who have held the position of head of government either at prime minister level or at the presidential level, will be able to knock at the door of incumbent prime ministers and Presidents without much ado. Such people will probably be the right person, along with other attributes,” Obasanjo argued.

“Such a candidate shouldn’t be a candidate for the country, should be the candidate of the region.”

The African Union Commission Chairperson is the topmost official of the continental bloc. It is like the CEO of the AU Secretariat, elected every four years, and their mandate renewable once.

Read: Roles AU Commission chairperson performs

The holder has overall responsibility for the Commission’s administration and finances. He is also supposed to promote and popularise the AU's objectives and enhancing its performance. Most importantly, he is supposed to consult and coordinate with key stakeholders like Member States, Development Partners, and regional economic blocs.

According to Rule 38 of the AU Rules of Procedure applicants must have a good track record in government, parliament, international organisations or other relevant sectors of society.

But more important is key selection principles which include “equitable regional representation, gender parity, predictable rotation, attracting and retaining Africa’s top talent, accountable and effective leadership and management, and transparent and merit-based selection,” according to the established tradition at the AU.

That means countries will trade their votes for corresponding support. In the last election in which a Kenyan contested for this post, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed found herself competing for voting interests: Djibouti had submitted a deputy chairperson candidate and chairpersons and deputies must not come from the same region. Still some neighbours changed their choices overnight after rivals offered irresistible incentives.

Some countries in the region could vote for the first and second round but switch sides when their chosen one fails to garner the two-thirds majority. Ms Mohamed would later accuse neighbouring countries of betrayal.

Candidatures for the Office of the Chairperson of the Commission and his/her deputy are often circulated to Member States at least three months before the election.