By JOACHIM BUWEMBO

More by this Author

Much of the just-ended year has seen Uganda seemingly itching to take on any provocation from the biggest powers on earth like the US, which has been piling pressure on the country following the passing of some legislation over gay activities.

So, it wasn’t surprising when Uganda recently ran to the regional court over Kenya Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority denying it a licence to import fuel through Mombasa and use the pipeline to transport it.

In the past, Kenya and Uganda have resolved more serious disputes without either side rushing to a court of law. But even if the court were to quickly grant Uganda’s prayer, Nairobi may still use administrative delays to block its operationalisation.

Read: BUWEMBO: We’re damned if fuel middlemen win, lose

So, what are Uganda’s options?

Kampala must be preparing for the eventuality of losing the case, or it could even be secretly hoping to lose, and then be justified and compelled to test and grow its ability to live without accessing the sea through Kenya.

Since the two countries nearly went to war in December 1987 over similar issues, Kampala has maintained a policy of using Dar es Salaam for a portion of its essential imports, however unprofitably and even at a loss, just in case things go wrong with Nairobi.

Kenya’s 2007 post-election violence that disrupted Uganda’s trade proved the value of the lesson learnt exactly 20 years earlier.

Another 16 years down the line, Kampala seems to be readying for another dose of Kenyan problems to help Uganda further reduce its reliance on the somehow unpredictable Kenya gateway to the world.

But can Uganda survive without its fuel being imported through Kenya?

Survive it can, but at what cost? Uganda reportedly imports 10 percent of its fuel through Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port and 90 percent through Kenya. If in the short run it manages to double the amount passing through Tanzania – more than that may require a major upgrade of Dar’s capacity, which is not an overnight undertaking.

Can Uganda survive the drastic 80 percent fall in its fuel supply? It may actually be easier to tell off the mighty US than Kenya, whose hostility may be felt more painfully by the Ugandan public.

Read: BUWEMBO: We aren’t disciplined enough to take on anyone

It gets even more complicated when you consider that Kampala’s immediate viable option to access the world if things go wrong with Nairobi is by air, an option that requires aviation fuel, whose steady supply comes through Kenya!

To that add the fact that Uganda’s population has got so reliant on petrol, which powers its one million boda boda bikes, two million cars, some 10,000 commuter minibuses, and on diesel for cargo truck haulage.

Besides, Uganda is not Tanzania – which has started to electrify its railway system. The few electric buses Uganda has so far manufactured and put on the road cannot even move a hundredth of the country’s internally travelling population.

So, surviving in the event of not reaching an understanding with Kenya would require a major public mindset change to drastically cut down on motor transport, like it happened during the Covid lockdown.

But the grounding of vehicles during lockdown came when “non-essential” movement was prohibited. General grounding of non-essential vehicles today would lead to an economic crisis and actual contraction of the economy. It could also cause a social crisis that the country of now softened or “spoilt” citizens cannot afford (moreover with only two years to the general election).

All this means we are more likely to end up with nothing changing after the impending hot-and-cold blowing in court. So, a business-as-usual outcome could be expected when the legal fight over Uganda's right to access the sea is done.

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail:[email protected]