Why was Kiiza Besigye—the man who has almost singlehandedly carried the mantle of Uganda’s opposition for years — missing in action in the public demonstrations that rocked Kampala last week? 

The absence of the biggest gun of Uganda’s opposition politics has stocked several theories that could define the next phase of Uganda’s politics.

First, there are tell-tale signs of a fractured opposition in the race to finding a successor — not just in Dr Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) but also across the entire opposition.  

The protest came three long weeks after the February 18 election, but even before the results were announced, opposition leaders led by Dr Besigye were already calling for civil uprising against what they called a sham election exercise that would hand incumbent Yoweri Museveni a decisive 68 per cent victory.

Instead, it was minions Samuel Lubega and Olara Otunu who were in action last week, attracting the ire of security services out in full force.

The contest for the presidency has always been between Museveni and Besigye since 2001.

The rest of the actors are very weak, particularly in regard to their parties’ structures and capacity to organise and reach voters.

Because of this, any meaningful challenger to Museveni would still have to come from FDC, Uganda’s best organised party after the ruling National Resistance Movement.  

Political analysts read an attempt by the new actors like Olara Otunnu of the Uganda People’s Congress and the former independent presidential candidate Sam Walter Lubega to make themselves relevant and take over the mantle from Dr Besigye.  

After three successive defeats, and not eligible to stand in 2016 on an FDC ticke going by the party’s rules, Besigye has been overexposed and now needs to take the backseat, to allow another politician to steer the ship.

Indeed there has also been a cacophony of noises over succession from within the FDC camp which the fiery politician might have interpreted as his cue to leave.  

“Statements of his party officials may have shocked Besigye to realise that there is lack of agreement on the way forward. They have raised issues of succession and others disagreed with him on protests as the way forward. So it would have been unwise of him to take part in this protest, well knowing that he won’t be in charge for long,” said Dr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, professor of history and development studies at Makerere University. 

FDC spokesman Wafula Ogutu however denies this, saying neither the debate over succession nor the issue of protests against Museveni’s re-election held the FDC president from leading last week’s protests.

Without clarifying, Mr Ogutu told The EastAfrican that his party’s next course of action will be approved by one of the party’s highest organs. 

Half-hearted protest

“Dr Besigye could not take part in the protests because it has not yet been discussed. There will be a possibility of FDC responding to a rigged election, and there are many options available for the party to do that. But the party’s National Executive Committee has not yet discussed or approved the issue of protests,” he said.  

The fact that the opposition were all agreed that the presidential election was rigged, but have only staged one half-hearted protest, is an indictment of its organisational capacity.

But instead of shaking the centres of power, last week’s demo turned out to be a whimper that petered off within minutes when the police intervened with tear gas and live bullets.  

It is believed that all this time, the opposition lacked leadership and any attempts to inspire serious protests now will have no consequence because most of the population has almost switched off.  

“A demonstration needs a trigger. Unless there is one, calling for a demonstration on its own may not make the kind of statement the opposition was looking for. This should have happened in the immediate aftermath of the election, not many days later. Trying to make a statement when the population is no longer angry may be of no consequence,” said Dr Ndebesa.  

This has not been lost on the FDC politicians too. Already, Joyce Ssebugwawo, a senior party official who recently won lower division elections in Kampala, issued a statement to the effect that she was ready to work with the elected Museveni government, yet her party contends that Museveni was elected in a rigged election.

But most shockingly, Ms Ssebugwawo also called for a freeze on any attempts at street protests.  

In addition, when Dr Besigye maintained calls for an uprising, another party official, MP Abdu Katuntu, retorted that protests are not engineered in boardrooms but from the streets.  

It is such statements that present a clear rift emerging in the party — and this might envelope the entire opposition sooner or later — on the way they intend to engage the government.

The thinking is that the opposition took too long to realise they needed to get onto the streets. 

“I don’t agree with that. We don’t operate on impulse; we watch what is happening, discuss and take decisions based on consensus,” said Mr Ogutu.  

Broadbased government

Another emerging theory that might shake the opposition is based on reports that Besigye is being courted by the ruling party to work with President Museveni in a broadbased government setup.

This has been mooted even within the ruling party as a progressive idea that might give Museveni’s next government more legitimacy even among those who do not support the ruling party.  

On its own, this alone could further drive a wedge between Besigye and other key players in the opposition.

Officials of FDC say the possibility of a Museveni-Besigye government is out of the question because “we don’t see any legitimacy in the executive and government Museveni is going to form.”

Besigye himself has ruled out a “return to the fold” to work under Museveni, saying that would be to betray the population.     

Besigye has dismissed the possibility of working with Museveni as a cartel of the elite.

“The whole idea is not to form a cartel that the parties at the top unite and leave the population suffering,” said Besigye. 

If the Otunnu and Lubega inspired protests had pulled off a major shakeup of the power centres, the two would have become the runaway leaders of the opposition.

But as it is, their clout to influence massive civil action is as negligible as the combined number of votes they polled—less than 180,000.

In that case, Museveni will be smiling as the search for a major opposition force to unseat him continues to falter.