A hotly contested by-election that has been billed as a litmus test for Kenya’s Deputy President William Ruto, and an imminent falling-out in the ruling Jubilee Alliance over a corruption scandal could shape the country’s politics ahead of the 2017 General Election.

Political leaders from the ruling Jubilee and opposition coalition CORD — Coalition for Reform and Democracy — have retreated to their bases to begin putting their houses in order as they prepare to form new alliances in 2017, The EastAfrican has established.

In the March 7 by-election, DP Ruto’s United Republican Party (URP) is fighting Independence party KANU for the Kericho senatorial seat.

A win for URP would confirm that the deputy president can still deliver the Rift Valley bloc to the ruling Jubilee Alliance, and give him the credibility to run for the presidency on a Jubilee ticket come 2022. A loss would not only jeopardise his chances for 2022, but could also prompt URP’s partner, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) party to look elsewhere for a candidate who guarantees it a solid voting bloc to enable him to retain power.

Merger

Mr Ruto’s situation is further complicated by the reluctance by some leaders from his Rift Valley political backyard to dissolve URP and merge with other parties to form the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP).

Matters were made worse last week when a former Cabinet Secretary Anne Waiguru, implicated Mr Ruto’s key allies — majority leader in Parliament Adan Duale, Senator Kipchumba Murkomen and personal assistant Farouk Kibet — in the unfolding National Youth Service scandal involving the loss of $7.8 million.

Mr Ruto’s supporters claim it is part of a bigger scheme to make the DP look unsuitable for the presidency in 2022.

The sudden upsurge of Kanu — through candidate Paul Sang — has raised eyebrows, with the elite from Rift Valley suspecting a hidden powerful hand outside the presidency that is determined to make the DP appear like he has lost his grip on the support he offered President Kenyatta in 2013.

According to Yatich arap Namba, a local opinion leader and a former contestant of the Baringo Central seat, Ruto supporters suspect that this hidden powerful hand does not want the DP to contest the presidency in 2022.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s allies on the other hand are still grappling with internal dissent over attempts to form JAP. All the parties under the Jubilee coalition are expected to fold up by mid-March to pave the way for JAP.

'Firing the last bullet'

On the other hand, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Wiper — the main coalition partners in CORD have been busy in strategy meetings weighing the options that are likely to deliver victory in the elections.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM has begun reviewing its election manifesto. This is a pointer that Mr Odinga is still keen on “firing the last bullet” next year, having made three attempts in previous elections with no success.

His running-mate in last elections Kalonzo Musyoka is separately organising his party Wiper in readiness to renew the political marriage, pushing Mr Odinga to support him this time or reach out to other parties for alliance-building.

According to Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar Hassan, who is the Wiper secretary-general, the party will from June establish campaign units in the 47 counties across the country to drum up support at the grassroots.

“We have seen new forces emerging, which means that we must strengthen the party to remain relevant,” said Mr Hassan.

ODM chairman John Mbadi told The EastAfrican that the party will rely on its structure to spearhead campaigns.

The party has divided the country into three parts, to maintain a firm grip on its strongholds — Nyanza, Western and parts of Nairobi — as well as to see smooth primaries. The party will also have a keen interest in battle grounds where rivals also have an influence — Nairobi, Kajiado and Kisii.

The third category is regions where ODM has little support — which include Central and Eastern regions, where President Kenyatta and Mr Musyoka are the political kingpins respectively.

Reawakened old networks

The emergence of another force in the vote-rich Rift Valley is also likely to change the political equation. Given that the DP has not been a darling of the former president Daniel arap Moi, there is a growing perception that the latter has reawakened his old networks with the objective of having his son, Baringo Senator, Gideon succeed President Kenyatta.

The Governor of Bomet, Isaac Ruto, is perceived as an agent of the powerful forces, but he has always maintained that his beef with the DP is that he decided to disband URP without consultations.

Micah Kigen, the ODM deputy chairman, Keiyo and Marakwet County said that Mzee Moi may not be the factor currently but agrees that there are powerful forces fighting Mr Ruto within the alliance.

“In the history of Kenya, deputy presidents are normally careful not to be seen to be overshadowing their bosses. But Mr Ruto comes out as an abrasive go getter in a manner that scares the president’s handlers,” said Mr Kigen. “Most of his supporters in Rift Valley are retreating to re-chart their path; they might form another party, remain in URP or go back to Kanu.”

Mr Kigen, however said that most people are not sure of the position of Gideon Moi, whom they suspect is angling for number two position which will still take them back to an alliance with TNA.

The younger Moi has maintained that he will contest the presidency in 2017 but critics say he is just positioning himself as an alternative number two to President Kenyatta in case the alliance with Mr Ruto does not work out.

That the DP continues to face the trial at the ICC when the president is off the hook, is also causing discomfort in Rift Valley. Governor Ruto recently warned President Kenyatta not to bank on Kalenjin votes in 2017 if the case against the DP is still continuing.