Uganda’s Central Bank Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime Mutebile has had a tumultuous few weeks, a role he seems to have swapped with the Uganda shilling — the local unit is now stabilising, but the reverse was true eight months ago when the Governor was rumoured to have resigned.

At a time when the Ugandan economy is pressed by inflationary and currency pressures, it needed no further shocks in the shape of uncertainty over the stewardship of the country’s Central Bank.

President Museveni — who Mutebile has differed with over public spending — has come in support of the governor, as some MPs sought to punish him for his outspoken views.

Mutebile last week said he is still in charge “for the long haul” but that came after he had been let off lightly by cabinet for his role in the controversial pay out of Ush142 billion (about $60 million) to compensate businessman Hassan Basajjabalaba, whose management contracts for a number of city markets had been rescinded by president Museveni a few years back.

However, a dark cloud still hangs over the head of the man that has presided over Uganda’s macroeconomic stability for more than two decades. Breaking ranks with the executive, the ruling party legislators’ caucus still wants Mutebile hanged, if for no other reason, than to prove that government officials that hail from the same [western] region of the country as Museveni are equally culpable when it comes to matters of punishing and kicking graft suspects out of office.

“I can assure you that I am in this office for the long haul. Only the president can dismiss me under the constitution on three grounds — insanity, dishonesty and inability to deliver and there’s no case for removing me on any of those grounds. You should tell the markets to remain calm and not worry about the ramblings in parliament,” said Mutebile.

Parliament’s list

Top on parliament’s list for those favoured by the political leadership is Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, who has been let off the hook many times at the orders of Museveni; but several cabinet ministers from the west of the country also seem untouchable.

Now Mutebile, but for how long? But Mutebile is a different kettle of fish. His sacking, or resignation, comes at a price. For instance, the last time the grapevine was rife with rumours of Mutebile’s resignation was back in July last year, in the aftermath of his interview with the prestigious UK newspaper Financial Times, in which he berated President Museveni’s lavish spending of $740 million on fighter jets, against earlier assurances that the executive would keep a tight grip on finances.

Mutebile had spent weeks trying to steady a plunging local unit against the dollar, and when it started coming out that he had thrown in the towel, that week, the shilling plummeted to 2,710 from trading at just over 2,400.

His deputy, Dr Loius Kasekende, is an astute economist and could do the job, but the financial markets appear divided whichever way Mutebile’s fate goes.

Currency traders, for instance, sounded upbeat, while stockbrokers appeared more apprehensive about the fallout from Mutebile’s political troubles on stock market performance. Investors are hardly panicking over the governor’s political troubles because they feel sure about his continued stay in office in light of the president’s willingness to save his neck. They appear confident under the notion that this political saga will eventually end on a positive note similar to the outcome of the oil farm down agreements.

“The interbank market looks very active with commercial banks trying to cover their short term dollar positions. Some of the offshore players are also exiting their positions in favour of better returns in the Kenya and Nigeria markets and this has kept the shilling in weak territory” said a currency trader at Standard Chartered Bank Uganda who requested anonymity.

Additional reporting by BERNARD BUSUULWA