East Africa faces a maize shortage of up to 30 per cent this year, blamed on unfavourable weather conditions and Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease, the East Africa Grain Council has warned.

In Kenya, annual production is expected to fall to 2.52 million tonnes from 3.6 million tonnes in 2014. According to Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, maize production stood at 40.3 million bags in 2014 during both the short and long rains, compared with 2013 when 38.9 million bags were harvested.

Uganda’s annual production will fall to 1.9 million tonnes in 2015 from 2.7 million tonnes in 2013 and 2014, according to FAO, while in Rwanda, a 30 per cent fall in production will translate into 336,000 tonnes down from 480,000 tonnes in 2014.

According to FAO’S global information and early warning system on food and agriculture, the long rains season (February to June) were below average across the region in the first month, requiring some replanting of maize.

In Tanzania, BMI Research forecasts unpredictable weather conditions that may see grain production slow this year because farmers had not planted a lot of maize in the current season.

According to the US Foreign Agriculture Service, Kenya produced 2.8 million tonnes of maize in the year ended June 2014 and forecasts the same this year. Consumption is expected to increase by 2.7 per cent to 3.75 million tonnes, with the shortfall being met by imports, it said.

Experts at the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute reported that Kenya’s maize growing areas registered a 10 per cent decline last year during the long rains season of March to May, as the Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease affected the crop — a trend that could be repeated this year.

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According to Janet Ngombalu, regional manager for market information and communications at the East Africa Grain Council, “The region could lose up to 30 per cent of maize production this year, with  the risk of the disease spreading to South Sudan, Ethiopia and Burundi.”

In Busoga region, the leading maize producer area in Uganda, production could drop by 40 per cent as a result of the Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease. The country’s 2014/2015 total maize production from all seasons is expected to be average, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FewsNet), a USAid-funded activity.

Domestic prices are anticipated to follow seasonal trends, decreasing after harvests and increasing as stocks are depleted, but they are expected to remain relatively low, said FewsNet.

Spread of the disease

The Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease is mainly spread by a vector, transmitting the disease from plant to plant and field to field. Affected maize is identified as having progressively yellowing leaves and stems with rotting cobs and in some cases stunted plant growth.

According to Joel Ochieng, senior research fellow and leader at the College of Agriculture and Vet Sciences at the University of Nairobi, the disease is a new invader in the region and it may take a long time to come up with a definite cure. It was first discovered in Kenya in 2011, spread to Uganda and Tanzania in 2012, then to Rwanda in 2013.

According to scientists, the disease is difficult to control for two reasons: It is caused by a combination of two viruses that are difficult to differentiate individually based on visual symptoms; and the insects that transmit the disease-causing viruses may be carried by wind over long distances.

“It will take many trials before a final solution is found across the region; meanwhile, burning and destroying the crops remains the only option as we carry out trials,” said Dr Ochieng, adding that the disease may spread to neighbouring countries. The disease spreads rapidly during the long rains.

In Rwanda, FAO predicts that erratic rains in the March-May season will affect maize production. The long rainy season (February to May) started on time, but rainfall amounts have been below average during the first half of March, requiring some replanting of cereal and bean crops.

“Although rains resumed towards the end of March with above-average amounts in northern and central districts, significant soil moisture deficits still persist in the Eastern Province. Close monitoring of rainfall amounts and distribution during the remainder of the season is warranted as this will determine the overall performance of the 2015 season crop production, to be harvested by early June,” reads the report.

The Tanzania Meteorological Agency predicted that there would be less rain from March to May.

“The Tanzania government is buying maize from its farmers to cushion against a foreseen drop in production and this will partly impact on Kenya, which imports maize from the country,” said Ms Ngombalu.

Tanzania said it had, through the National Food Reserve Agency, given the go-ahead for getting a loan of Tsh20 billion ($11.93 million) from CRDB bank to buy part of the 500,000 tonnes of maize from farmers facing storage challenges.

Meanwhile, following the bumper harvest experienced in the country last year, the government has appealed to individual traders and agencies to buy and export surplus maize.

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“Kenya was set to import 900,000 tonnes of maize from Uganda and Tanzania in March, but that may not be possible after the deadly Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease was reported in the two countries,” said Ms Ngombalu.

Increased informal trade across the EAC could see member states put stringent measures to control outflow of the grain as traders and farmers search for better prices, leaving Kenya to source outside the region.

A ban on genetically modified maize however locks out any imports into Kenya from the US — the world’s biggest maize exporter.