A United Nations forecast of possible political upheavals and natural disasters in the coming months cites the risk of a coup attempt in Burundi and a “worrying” rate of fatalities from a cholera outbreak in Tanzania.

Concerns about El Niño’s humanitarian impact on East Africa are also expressed in the “Alert, Early Warning and Readiness Report” published on Tuesday.

The UN task force that makes the twice-yearly set of projections says “the risk of a new coup attempt remains extant” in Burundi due to deepening divisions within the country’s army.

“Crackdowns on dissident soldiers will widen the divide still further,” the UN team predicts.

Repressive actions

It also expects repressive actions by the government to spread beyond the capital city, Bujumbura.

“Rwanda could intervene militarily in Burundi under the pretext of hunting down FDLR members, yet this remains a less likely outcome,” the report adds in a reference to the armed group of Rwandan Hutu that has operated mainly in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the past 20 years.

The flow of displaced people out of Burundi will likely continue, the report says.

It expects most will cross into Tanzania, which already hosts more than 100,000 Burundian refugees.

Tanzania will also have to grapple with a spreading cholera outbreak, the UN forecasters say.

Heavily contaminated

The disease has reached Dar es Salaam, “where the water sources are heavily contaminated,” the report notes.

Cholera is also present on Zanzibar and in most regions of Tanzania, the assessment adds.

With El Niño threatening to cause flooding in many parts of East Africa, the cholera outbreak could spread to other countries, the report suggests.

It notes that a strong El Niño event in 1997/98 contributed to a surge of 200,000 cholera cases and 12,000 deaths in the sub-region in those two years.

“Many areas within Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are prone to flash flooding, mud slides, lightning strikes and water-borne and animal health diseases,” the report observes in a section on the anticipated effects of heavy rainfalls linked to El Niño.

The Kenyan government is preparing for the onset of El Niño, the UN team notes.

But it adds that “with the recent devolution of power, there is no clarity on responsibilities and triggers, and limited capacity at the county and sub-county level.”