The elimination of trade barriers, which has been at the heart of the drawn-out World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks for the past 14 years, appears set to be consigned to the back burner at the Nairobi Ministerial Conference this week, dampening hopes that Africa will gain competitive access to key markets in the near future.

The conference in Nairobi, a first in Africa since one under the WTO’s forerunner the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was held in Morocco in 1994, had raised expectations that trade issues critical to Africa’s development, such as the removal of subsidies on agricultural exports by European countries, would take the centre stage.

But preparatory meetings in Geneva have ended up with three issues to be discussed at the Nairobi Ministerial Conference (WC10) after members failed to close ranks on contentious issues that would have helped Africa trade more with the developed world.

“Africa’s hope has been in the successful conclusion of the Doha Round, because it is in Doha where trade negotiations aimed at lowering trade barriers began. The intention was to reduce trade barriers around the world and thus facilitate increased global trade,” said Darlington Mwape, Zambia’s former representative to the WTO and one of the organisers of the Trade and Development Symposium, which will be held parallel to the MC10.

Less divisive path

The items on the agenda appear to address geopolitical interests and the impact of the environment and infrastructure on trade — a less divisive path than the often emotive subject of levelling the playing field.

That means that Africa will just be a pawn as the UK, US and Japan debate on whether India, Brazil and China should be grouped as developing countries together with African members.

Redefining that group as developing, would grant African countries better access to developed markets, who fear that a wholesale removal of domestic trade incentives would leave them reeling under cheap products from China and India.

That fear is behind the West’s call that the Doha Development Agenda be replaced with a more modern agenda looking at trade issues such as food security, energy, enterprise, competition, e-commerce and currencies.

The turn of events has left WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo appealing to delegates to show political will and flexibility during the negotiations to reach outcomes that are beneficial to all members.

But sources at the WTO office in Geneva said there is still a possibility that Africa’s interests such as cheaper industrial goods, services, trade facilitation and development rules could be accommodated after the key issues are exhausted.

“This will depend on the political will and the conclusion made from the discussions of the agenda issues,” said the source.

At the last Ministerial Conference in 2013 in Bali, Indonesia, members adopted a package aimed at streamlining trade, allowing developed countries more options for providing food security, boosting least-developed countries’ trade and fostering general development of member states.

MC10’s key aim is to help producers, buyers and sellers engage fairly in global markets. Due to capacity constraints experienced in both developing and least developed countries, the initial objective of the Doha agenda has not been achieved. These countries suffer supply side constraints that can be addressed through negotiated special and differential treatment mechanisms.

The Doha declaration promised major reforms in agriculture, particularly reduction in subsidies and tariffs for developed countries and special terms for developing countries.

“These are the issues Africa is pushing for, which are not included on the agenda since they have been classified as contentious,” said a WTO official, adding that there were fears that the Doha Round will be “closed” without an agreement.

“This premature conclusion will then give rise to an alternative agenda, the so-called 21st century issues: Investment, transparency in government procurements, trade facilitation and competition policy,” he said.

Unlikely to be concluded

Mr Mwape said the Doha Declaration was unlikely to be concluded in Nairobi, but hopes that there will be an agreement on the preferential rules of origin that bar African countries from exporting more goods made from imported components.

He also expects a push for more latitude under a services waiver and transparency on anti-dumping and fisheries subsidies.

“Members are agreed to continue to negotiate all the issues of the DDA. In short, the ball will not be dropped in Nairobi,” Mr Mwape said.

He said that the proposals to be made in Nairobi have focused on transparency, but with a difference: Some members such as the European Union would limit the Nairobi outcomes to WTO transparency, and specifically to a proposed mechanism to check dumping.

But he noted that WTO members’ positions regarding possible Nairobi outcomes remain sharply divided. A number of delegations have expressed concerns that the proposals for due process and transparency are too ambitious, given that the “recalibrated” outcome being sought in Nairobi, and that it is too late to make amendments.

“Some of the delegations favour WTO transparency outcomes, if any are to be achieved. Others, however, have cautioned that the transparency proposals could impose unacceptably burdensome obligations on developing countries, and are unnecessary, in light of the existing tools.”