The latest discovery of a massive reservoir of underground water in Turkana, northern Kenya has the potential to transform the country from its current water deficient status into one of the few water surplus nations in sub-Saharan Africa. This also gives Kenya the opportunity to retain its regional and continental clout.

Until the discovery, Kenya had been the most water-scarce country in East Africa, with water availability at only 792 cubic metres per person per year — even lower than arid Somalia, which, at 1,672 cubic metres, is under relatively less water pressure due to its smaller population.

Rwanda, too, is facing water scarcity at 977 cubic metres per person per year; Uganda’s availability stands at 2,085 cubic metres, Burundi at 1,553 cubic metres and Tanzania at 2,266 cubic metres per person per year.

Hydrologists have set 2,000 cubic metres per person per year as the level where a country is considered water-stressed. Under 1,000 cubic metres, the situation is critical, and the country is considered water-scarce, like Kenya.

This puts Kenya in such a precarious position that in December 2011, The EastAfrican predicted that by 2050, the lack of water in the country would greatly diminish its stature in East Africa, so much so that it could cease to exist as a country (“East Africa in 2050: Nations Will Die, New Borders Will emerge”, The EastAfrican, December 17-24, 2011).

We envisaged a scenario where East Africa’s borders would be redrawn and countries with sufficient water resources would emerge as the new regional superpowers. Under this scenario, present-day Kenya would be taken over by South Sudan and Tanzania.

But last week’s discovery gives Kenya a chance to retain its clout. Africa is the world’s second driest continent after Australia, holding just 9 per cent of global freshwater resources, despite being the second-biggest continent.

For African countries, securing water needs is already an urgent priority for governments, and is likely to become even more critical in the face of increased population growth and harsh weather linked to climate change.

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Geopolitics

The aquifer discovered in the Lotikipi basin is believed to hold more than 207 billion cubic metres of fresh water, more than enough to meet the needs of not only inhabitants of Turkana but the whole country. The other smaller aquifers discovered hold about 43 billion cubic metres, bringing the total groundwater discovered to about 250 billion cubic metres.

The country’s water usage, according to the Environment, Water and Natural Resources Ministry, stands at around three billion cubic metres per year, only about 1.2 per cent of the amount of water discovered.

“It is a major discovery and will help position Kenya better in the East African region given the fact that our neighbours are better endowed in water resources,” said Environment Cabinet Secretary Judy Wakhungu.

John Nyaoro, Director of Water Resources at the ministry told The EastAfrican that Kenya’s water consumption is expected to rise to 10 billion cubic metres by 2030 and 15 billion by 2050. Mr Nyaoro added that if well managed, the giant reservoir and other smaller recently discovered ones, have the potential to supply the country with freshwater for decades.

“Our studies show that the smaller Lodwar aquifer is recharged by the Turkwel River, and we expect that 90 per cent of recharge for the larger Lotikipi aquifer comes from water in Kenya; some refill could also be coming from South Sudan and Ethiopia,” said Mr Nyaoro.

“In much of Kenya, when it rains, it floods, but the water quickly disappears into the ground. We expect to find even more groundwater because we believe Kenya has massive groundwater supplies,” said Mr Nyoro.

He further said that water extracted from the Turkana aquifer will be pegged on the rate of recharge.

“The safe yield — the amount of water that can be extracted without depleting the aquifer — will only be 70 per cent of the 3.4 billion cubic metres that refills the aquifer every year,” he said. “With proper management, this aquifer could last for posterity.”

Globally, groundwater provides about a fifth of the planet’s water needs and half its drinking water. In Africa, groundwater is essential to supplement the surface water resources on a continent that is increasingly affected by recurrent drought.

The continent is endowed with large and often under-utilised aquifer resources, predominantly in the large shared sedimentary systems of the Sahara and Central and Southern Africa.

Aquifer resources often represent the only source of drought security and life sustenance for large populations in arid and semi-arid areas.

The biggest aquifer in Africa is the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System which lies under virtually all of Egypt, much of eastern Libya, and significant areas of northern Chad and northern Sudan.

The aquifer provides much of the water in these desert countries, particularly in Libya, which hardly has any surface water at all — 95 per cent of the water Libya needs comes from the ground.

In the vast Algerian Sahara, people for thousands of years have been digging wells and connecting the wells by tunneling canals under the desert rock, creating a vast system of underground man-made rivers.

No refilling

According to the Africa Water Atlas 2012 published by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep), estimates vary on the amount of water that the Nubian aquifer holds, with the lower estimate being a massive 150 trillion cubic metres — 600 times as big as the Turkana find.

But the Nubian aquifer is as finite as an oil well — the water seeped into the ground when the Sahara was much wetter, about 20,000-25,000 years ago, but no significant refilling of the aquifer is happening under today’s climate conditions.

According to Unep, experts generally agree that the system has not been in equilibrium for thousands of years and that groundwater levels were already declining well before artificial extraction began. Today, drawing water from the system can be considered “water mining,” or a rate that exceeds recharge. The “fossil water” in the Nubian aquifer could run dry in as little as 100 years, according to some estimates.

Although aquifers are a source of excellent quality water because of their isolation from surface pollution, and repeated filtering of water through many rock layers, there is a lack of legal frameworks to regulate their management, even though they often extend across the boundaries of many states.

And although in Africa there are detailed estimates of the water resources of rivers shared by two or more countries, no equivalent estimates exist for transboundary aquifers. But managing these resources is critical.

Underground water is recharged by surface water, which relies on forests. But the water towers in many aquifer recharge zones are threatened by accelerated land degradation and climate change.

Increasing extraction

Furthermore, over-extraction is causing many aquifers to dry up around the world. In Punjab, the water table has dropped by 10 metres since 1973 and the rate of decline is accelerating on both the Indian and the Pakistani sides of the region. It is a similar story for the northwestern Sahara aquifer system, shared by Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, where water extraction increased ninefold between 1950 and 2008.

In 2010, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, which share the Guarani aquifer, took the proactive step of being among the first countries to sign a treaty to protect a trans-boundary aquifer, a move which was welcomed by environmentalists.

The Kenyan government has set aside Ksh8 billion ($94 million) in the current financial year to implement irrigation projects throughout the country.

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A one million-acre irrigation and food security project at Galana at the Coast has been identified as the flagship project with some Ksh3.6 billion ($42 million) earmarked for the first phase. Water scarcity has always been an impediment in developing a vibrant irrigation sub-sector in the country.

Prof Wakhungu said the government is planning a multipurpose exploitation of the precious liquid and will develop infrastructure for domestic, industrial and agriculture use.

“Apart from domestic use, the water will also be used to develop the sectors that drive our economy, namely agriculture and manufacturing,” said the Cabinet Secretary.
The water discovery could also help reduce intermittent conflicts in the drought-prone northern areas over water and pasture, which leave dozens dead every year.

Rivalry between communities in the region has in the recent past become fierce with groups using sophisticated weapons their fight to control in resources.

Reported by Christine Mungai and Jeff Otieno