The announcement of the latest round of sanctions by the Obama administration against Rwanda for the latter’s alleged involvement in recruitment of child soldiers to bolster the ranks of the Congolese rebel group M23 has elicited harsh words from the highest echelons of power.

The move to withhold support to the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) by the United States is seen as part of the human rights agenda of the Obama administration.

Kigali’s sympathisers have been quick to conclude that the Obama decision in regard to Rwanda was driven by the influence of such rights groups as Human Rights Watch (HRW), Amnesty International and other bodies within the United Nations.

Of late, the powers that be in Kigali have upped their rhetoric against “witchhunt” from some centres of global influence based in the West. Institutions such as HRW and its leader Kenneth Roth have been on the receiving end of a relentless attack on what is perceived in Kigali as their activism against the government.

And it is not just human rights organisations that have borne the brunt of Kigali’s ire when it comes to defending its image. Filip Renytjens, long regarded as the foremost scholar on Rwanda, has in recent days been subject to ridicule from Kigali.

Whereas many of these Western organisations and researchers in the academy are convinced that they are committed to documenting the facts on the ground, based on scientific research, the supporters of Kigali see a group of people using their privileged institutions to carry out activism against the RPF government.

It is from this corps of researchers that institutions such as the United Nations draw on when they want expert reports about issues of the world and, in this case, Rwanda in particular.

Rwanda maintains that it offers no support to the rebellion in eastern Congo. More so, it is hard to believe that the Rwandan army would conscript child soldiers. The reputation of the RDF certainly does not give any indicators to such possibilities.

When a group of young students fled to Uganda and were given protection by the UNHCR, they claimed that they were running away from being conscripted into the M23. Kigali proffered a contrasting version of the events. But it is from such allegations and other instances that a body of “evidence” is developed and action taken, just as we are seeing in the sanctions against the RDF.

Whatever the case may be, the people running the show in Kigali still come off as overly sensitive to any kind of criticism or questioning in regard to what they are doing. Whenever anything unfavourable to the establishment gets into the mainstream, a barrage of responses of all kind is now always expected.

Is honeymoon nearly over?

Is it worth it? Why is it that Kigali is unable to ignore, or mildly dispute, whatever accusations are levelled against it when others barely pay attention. It is a puzzle that will need someone with great insight into the regime’s psychology to figure out.

Going back to the issue of sanctions, many watchers of events in Kigali have been quick to conclude that Rwanda’s honeymoon with the West is nearing its end. That it is on the ropes. That in the aftermath of the genocide, Western moral guilt created a situation whereby Kigali would rarely be questioned whatever its transgressions but with the passage of time the West’s moral guilt is wearing off and Kigali is transforming from a strategic asset to a great liability.

What is certain is that the short-term implications of a changing attitude in Western capitals towards Kigali may not be of great significance and may come to pass if the current leadership gives up power easily in 2017 and departs the stage with moral victory unexpected of an African leadership with a revolutionary background.

But in case the current regime chooses to prolong its stay in power beyond 2017, it will lose the legitimacy it has enjoyed. Unless it has strategic geopolitical important roles to play, it may be on the defensive for a long time.

Frank Kagabo is an Erasmus Mundus graduate student of journalism, media and globalisation at Aarhus University, Denmark, and Swansea University, the UK, specialising in war and conflict reporting. E-mail: [email protected]; Twitter: @kagabo.