In less than two weeks, the Somali extremist group al Shabaab, thought to be on the run after losing its leader Ahmed Godane in a US airstrike in September, and being pushed out of its last major strongholds by the African Union force, Amisom, dropped its deadly business card off in Kenya, not once but twice.

On November 22, they stopped a Nairobi-bound bus in Mandera, took the non-Muslim travellers aside and shot them at close range through the backs of their heads.

As Kenya was still coming to terms with the atrocity, al Shabaab struck again. In the same Mandera County on December 2, they attacked a quarry camp. Again, they picked out the non-Muslim workers, and executed them.

This time, Kenya reeled. President Uhuru Kenyatta, seeking to restore confidence, asked his Minister of Internal Afffairs Joseph ole Lenku and the police chief David Kimaiyo to jump off the cliff, and he brought in a new team to deal with the crisis.

What is al Shabaab’s game? First, it has said the attacks were in retaliation for Nairobi’s crackdown on allegedly extremist mosques in the Coastal town of Mombasa.

Second, it has been demanding that Kenya withdraw its troops, who are now part of Amisom, from Somalia. Though Kenyatta is firm that Kenya will not leave Somalia, clearly the number of those who think it should is rising.

Some things, though, don’t add up. Though Kenya kicked al Shabaab out of the lucrative port of Kismayu, Kismayu was by no means its biggest loss — the capital Mogadishu was.

The Ugandan and Burundian troops landed in Mogadishu in 2007, and by the time Kenyan troops entered south Somalia in late 2011, the al Shabaab had lost most of Mogadishu.

Mogadishu is important because it’s where the symbols of Somalia sovereignty and the structures of the state are being rebuilt, and to which foreign missions are returning.

Al Shabaab actually wants all of Somalia and Mogadishu back, and attacking Kenya seems to be the easiest way to do so.

Uganda and Burundi are landlocked. Mombasa is Uganda’s main export and import route. If you want to bring Uganda to its knees, squeeze Mombasa. However, Burundi is not as reliant on Mombasa. For it, Dar es Salaam port is the lifeline.

Well, Tanzania has the same potentially explosive Muslim-Christian mix as Kenya.

However, having grown up on a diet of “social harmony,” Tanzania would not stomach the Muslim vs Christian animosity that al Shabaab is trying to stoke in Kenya.

Tanzania has the leverage with Bujumbura to get Burundi to end its Mogadishu presence.

However, the fear factor to get Dar to play that card has to be very high. Unlike Mombasa, Dar es Salaam is the economic heart of Tanzania. If it had to go through the attacks and conflict that Mombasa has witnessed over the past three years, it would be too huge a blow.

I think that if the alternative were to have extremists turn Dar into Mombasa with its empty tourist hotels, Tanzania’s course of action is clear — it will beg Burundi to leave Somalia.

The problem for Kenya, then, is that it is a dividend-rich target for al Shabaab. By hitting it, al Shabaab kills four birds with one stone – it hammers Kenya, starves Uganda and spooks Tanzania, which in turn will pull Burundi’s ears.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is editor of Mail & Guardian Africa (mgafrica.com) Twitter: @cobbo3