Jubbaland crisis worries border communities

Jubbaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe has remained defiant amid aggressive moves by the Federal Government of Somalia, including indicting him for treason and deploying troops to the southern state.

Following Madobe’s re-election by the region’s House of Representatives, the federal government rejected the process as illegal.

This escalation has raised concerns beyond Somalia, particularly in Kenya’s northeastern counties, which share cultural ties with Somalia.

Clan elders in Garissa County, which borders Jubbaland, have called on Nairobi to mediate the political crisis. Osman Ibrahim Abdi, a local elder, expressed fears that tensions in Jubbaland could spill over into Kenya.

“We are neighbours to Somalia, and the current developments in Jubbaland are deeply concerning as they may severely affect us,” he said. “We urge President William Ruto to intervene before the situation worsens.”

President Ruto and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have maintained cordial relations since taking office two years ago, reversing previously strained ties.

While Kenya has historically collaborated with Jubbaland to combat al-Shabaab, it is unlikely to openly back Madobe.

Read: Madobe wins third term as president of Jubbaland

However, Kenyan officials have emphasised the importance of a stable relationship between Somalia’s federal government and its states to sustain gains against al-Shabaab.

After Madobe’s re-election, Somali President Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre responded by airlifting Somali National Army (SNA) units to Ras Kamboni, a town near the Kenyan border.

In response, Jubbaland deployed its Dervish Force, preparing to defend its jurisdiction against what it views as aggression from Mogadishu.

Somalia, divided into five federal states—Jubbaland, Puntland, Galmudug, South West, and Hirshabelle—allows these states to maintain local defence forces under current laws. However, tensions over jurisdiction and resource sharing have frequently led to conflicts between the federal government and the states.

Madobe’s re-election on 25 November was declared null by Mogadishu, with federal prosecutors indicting him for treason, an offence punishable by death in Somalia. This has heightened fears of a confrontation between the federal army and Jubbaland forces.

Kenyan elders warn of potential refugee influxes similar to those seen during Somalia’s 1991 civil war, which placed significant strain on resources in Kenya’s North Eastern Region.