A power-sharing deal similar to that crafted in Kenya after the 2007 election chaos is one of the options on the table in attempts to resolve the Burundi political crisis.

Sources close to the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) said a government of national unity or a transition government could help pull Burundi out of the “dangerous situation” precipitated by President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a controversial third term.

Speaking on the sidelines of a ICGLR meeting in Kampala on June 5 on the impact of the electoral violence in Burundi on peace and security in the Great Lakes Region, the sources said they were afraid Bujumbura could resist the options after regaining control of the country following a failed coup.

Key among the options is to get the government of embattled President Pierre Nkurunziza to negotiate with the opposition and form a government of national unity in which it could be required to cede some power.

Alternatively, they suggest creating a transitional government for at least three years. While this leaves Nkurunziza’s powers intact, it obliges him to prioritise national reconciliation, preparation and conduct of elections that every interested party would deem credible — a task some analysts say he has already failed at.

Such an arrangement would also aim to buy time to establish regional and international guarantees for both processes and the country’s power brokers, whose backing is crucial for any deal to pass through, let alone be held up.

“The president is not the all-powerful person in Burundi. There are other more powerful personalities. Guarantees are therefore necessary to get everyone on board to end the current impasse. This arrangement has worked before in Kenya,” said a senior diplomat who is part of the consultations. 

Kenya formed a Grand Coalition government in 2008 after a bitterly contested presidential election led to ethnic clashes that left more than 1,000 people dead and several displaced.

“Burundi is dealing with a very difficult issue but it is not intractable. Those who would like to see things not deteriorate should aim at consensus building among all the parties,” said Prof Mwesiga Baregu, a leading expert on peace and security in the Great Lakes region.

“There should be no preconditions. All positions should be put on the table. Emphasis should be on consensus so that there is no winner or loser. Every Burundian should feel they got what was the best possible, not necessarily what they wanted,” added Mr Baregu.

“A return to violence in Burundi not only has destabilising consequences nationally but is likely to jeopardise peacebuilding efforts in other countries in the region. In particular, refugees and the internally displaced persons create increasingly insecure populations and, as a result of porous borders, create regional security threats,” said Dr Arthur Bainomugisha, who heads Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (Acode), a thinktank that was a joint convenor of the Kampala meeting.

According to the ICGLR analysis, the crisis in Burundi is likely to trigger confrontations along ethnic lines or give succour to destabilising forces whose damage the region had reduced greatly.

On May 31, the heads of state of the East African Community, who are leading the mediation, asked the country’s leadership to extend its General Election for at least one and a half months in order to consult all stakeholders on how to end the political impasse.

READ: EAC urges Burundi election delay, halt to violence

The elections have since been postponed but no new dates have been set as the National Independent Electoral Commission (Ceni) grapples with lack of quorum and money. Some commissioners fled the country for fear of reprisals if they were seen to be opposed to the third terms.

READ: Burundi crisis: Electoral body lacks quorum, funds to hold polls

The EAC Heads of State Summit conspicuously evaded Nkurunzinza’s insistence to contest for a third term, which is the primary source of protests in Burundi that have been running since April 26.

“The positions of the opposition and the executive are totally irreconcilable under the current circumstances,” said Ambeyi Ligabo, who directs the democracy and good governance programme at the ICGLR.

Burundi opposition leaders are calling for a change of the current negotiation mediator Said Djinnit, the UN Special Envoy to the Great Lakes Region.

“We appreciate the effort the UN is putting into bring back peace to Burundi but we call on Ban Ki-Moon to appoint another envoy who can bring both sides together,” said Francois Nyamoya secretary general of Movement for Solidarity and Democracy party. Mr Nyamoya also said Mr Djinnit calls them to meetings without providing an agenda beforehand.

Willy Nyamitwe, President Nkurunziza’s advisor, said the president’s term could be discussed. However, opposition leaders and the civil society have insisted that Nkurunziza’s third term is not negotiable since it violates the Constitution and the Arusha Accord.

The negotiations facilitated by the United Nations Electoral Observation Mission in Burundi together with EAC, Comesa and ICGLR that started Friday are expected to resume next week.

The Heads of State Summit directed the ministers of foreign affairs of the EAC partner states and the republic of South Africa to engage all stakeholders in Burundi and continuously report on the progress to the summit, which among other activities will start next week to restore a conducive environment to conduct peaceful, free and fair elections.

The parliamentary elections that were to take place on Friday, June 5, were suspended for the second time in order to give dialogue a chance at defusing the ongoing instability in the country.

The operations of Burundi’s elections management body could be crippled after some of its senior staff fled the country and the EU and the influential Roman Catholic Church withdrew support for the elections.