When leaders in the East African region sat down to discuss ways of ending Somalia’s instability last year, they decided a military attack on the militants.

For many of them — like Kenya, which sent into troops to Somalia in October last year — it made sense as the instability in its northeastern neighbour continued to be an economic, political and security headache for the country.

But now, the incursion has come to haunt East African countries’ standing in the international arena. East African countries are leading the continent among the world’s most vulnerable countries, topping the “failed states index” issued by a US-based think tank and published by the Foreign Policy Magazine.

Violence linked to Kenya’s “entanglement” in Somalia as well as the row between Sudan and South Sudan are among the reasons cited for the  poor rating for countries like Kenya and Ethiopia.

Out of the 177 countries analysed by the Fund for Peace, the 10 East African countries have all degenerated in terms of management of refuges and internally displaced persons, uneven development, economic decline, security apparatus, economic growth and human rights, except Tanzania, which has improved by one point.

Somalia topped the global list for the fourth year running, followed by Sudan at position three. Ethiopia is at position 17, Burundi (18), Uganda (20), Eritrea (23), Rwanda (35), Djibouti (53) and Tanzania the least failed in the region at position 66, one of the best ranking in Africa.

South Africa and Ghana are the most positively rated in all of Africa. Finland is said to be the least failed state. The United States is assigned the 159th spot, one grade better than the United Kingdom’s.

Kenya is again ranked number 16 among 177 countries evaluated by the Fund for Peace. Kenya was at number 34 on the failed states index back in 2006 but instability following the 2007 presidential election caused it to be relegated to the 13th spot in the 2010 rankings.

The new rankings polled at least 130,000 publicly available sources to analyse 177 countries and rate them on 12 indicators of pressure on the state during the year 2010 — from refugee flows to poverty, public services to security threats.

Taken together, a country’s performance on this battery of indicators tells us how stable — or unstable — it is. And the latest results show how much the 2008 global economic crisis and its ripple effects everywhere, from collapsing trade to soaring food prices to stagnant investment, are still haunting the world.

Indicators used

The other indicators include mounting demographic pressure, the state of refugees and IDPs, group grievances, human flight, uneven development, economic decline, deligitimisation of the state, the level of public services, human rights, security apparatus and external intervention.

Africa’s rankings are expected to deteriorate further this year, with several countries scheduled to have or having already held elections through 2011 and this year. As much as elections can contribute to democratic progress, they are often a flashpoint for conflict — conflicts that invariably send already fragile states back up the ranks of the index, said Foreign Policy magazine.

Uganda’s incumbent President Yoweri Museveni won re-election in February, but the opposition has cried foul and his inauguration was met with violent protests. President Museveni has begun sending signals that he may eventually relinquish control.

In Nigeria, steady in the rankings this year at number 14, post-election rampages in April killed as many as 800 people. Sudan’s closely watched referendum in January on an independent southern state was  free of bloodshed, but the country continues to hover on the brink of new violence.

The common denominator among some of the top ranking countries is that they are constantly engaged in war or political instability, either from within or influenced by neighbours, security analysts said.

Kenya has made progress in state-building in the past two years, the Fund for Peace said, citing the approval of a new constitution and the International Criminal Court’s indictment of suspected instigators of the post-election violence.

“Still, Kenya’s entanglement in Somalia, where it sent thousands of troops late last year, has resulted in several attacks and kidnappings along the Kenya-Somali border, introducing new pressures in a country still struggling to recover from a half-decade of turbulence,” adds the analysis.

“Kenya also hosts the world’s largest refugee camp, teeming with Somali drought victims,” says the analysis.

Uganda ranks number 20 in this year’s index — one spot higher (worse) than in 2011.

The ranking says: “The world has of late taken note of Joseph Kony, the Ugandan warlord and leader of the apocalyptic, cult-like Lord’s Resistance Army. Although Kony certainly spread chaos throughout Uganda in past years, he has since left and is thought to be hiding in the Central African Republic.”

In October, US President Barack Obama sent 100 military advisers to Uganda to bolster its fight against the LRA, and in March the activist group Invisible Children began a viral social media effort to raise awareness about Kony’s crimes. 

Instead of warlords, the real threat to Uganda may be the spread of nodding disease, an incurable neurological affliction that affects thousands of children in the region. In the political arena, however, things are looking better. The analysis found Kenya had performed poorly in terms of management of refuges and internally displaced persons, (IDPs), uneven development, economic decline, security apparatus, economic growth and human rights.

The chairperson of the Kenya National Commission of Human Rights, Samuel Tororei, disagrees with the blanket ranking of countries from absolute factors without looking at the progress these countries have made.

“A failed state is when the governance institutions are dysfunctional, which is not the case in Kenya,” said Dr Tororei. 

“Kenya has the most liberal Bill of Rights in the world and our institutional and legislative processes are being put in place to improve the situation. Are we making progress? Yes, but there are still shortcomings in that human rights are not yet protected to a satisfactory level,” said Dr Tororei, who cited the establishment of the Commission on the Administration of Justice and the Independent Police Oversight Authority.

Extrajudicial killings

Still, Kenya is grappling with the question of human rights violations, especially on the issue of extrajudicial killings by police. The recent Amnesty International report noted that there were incidents of unlawful killing and torture and other ill-treatment by the police and other security personnel.

Sudan has remained at number three from last year owing to the tension with its new neighbour, the Republic of South Sudan, and the civil wars in Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile and the continued human-rights abuses in Darfur.

Again Ethiopia, which occupies position 17 after Kenya, has been facing accusations of persecution of the opposition, suppression of press freedom and freedom of speech. It is virtually at war with neighbouring Eritrea and fighting rebellion in the south and east. Ethiopia dropped from number 20 last year to number 17.

If Ethiopians are looking for someone to blame for their three-spot leap on this year’s list, they may justifiably look to their neighbour to the east, Somalia.

Continued instability in that country has had spillover effects in Ethiopia, which in 2011 sent troops across the Somali border in an effort to stem the rising influence of Al Shabaab. During the most intense period of a devastating combination of drought, famine, and instability in Somalia, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that some 23,000 refugees were arriving each month in Ethiopia, straining resources.

“The drought also took its toll of the Ethiopian economy, which has experienced runaway growth in recent years but slowed slightly in 2011,” said the Failed States Index. “While the Ethiopian government has moved to institute some reform in the agriculture sector —  which employs 85 per cent of workers and accounts for 41 per cent of total output — those changes have been incremental at best and hardly sufficient to stand up to 2011’s record-breaking dry spell,” says the Index.

Considered a post-conflict success story following the end of civil war in 2000, Burundi has more recently been lurching dangerously back toward instability since a disputed election in 2010, which led several disgruntled political opposition groups to take up arms. The ruling party, the National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy, and a reconstituted rebel group, the National Liberation Forces, have attacked each other in a series of targeted killings.

The country suffered its worst massacre in years this past September when 40 people were killed in an attack at a bar near the Congolese border. Journalists and civil society leaders have also faced persecution.

Burundi which improved slightly from number 17 last year to 18, was recently accused by the latest Amnesty International Report of harassing, unlawfully killing and arresting opposition members from the National Liberation Forces (FNL). Uganda dropped from position 21 last year to 20 this year, owing to the continued threats from Al Shabaab and the Lord’s Resistance Army and the harassment of the opposition since last year’s elections.

Rwanda, which is facing accusations of less freedom of expression and harassment and arrests of journalists who are critical of the government, went a step backwards from 34 last year to position 35 this year. Djibouti has significantly dropped from position 60 last year to 53, while Tanzania has improved slightly to position 66.

Fred Oluoch and Kevin J Kelley