Last time he competed against Yoweri Museveni, the Forum for Democratic Change president was nominated while behind bars and spent half the campaign period shuttling between jail and the courts. This time, he faces the incumbent backed by a loose coalition of four political parties and a pro-monarchy pressure group under the Inter-Party Co-operation banner. He spoke to MICHAEL WAKABI about his 2011 victory strategy

What is your assessment of the campaign trail so far?

Our programme is on schedule. Our rallies have been successful although fear and intimidation has reduced the numbers of those in attendance. Our biggest challenge has been in Bunyoro where we have been banned from airing our rallies on radio stations. In Masindi, our airtime was cancelled at the last minute without apology. In Hoima, we were flatly denied the opportunity. We intent to follow up the matter through the courts.

You have rejected the Electoral Commission in the past. Do your views still stand?

Yes. The commission is neither independent nor competent. It organised the 2006 elections which the Supreme Court ruled as not being free and fair. Nothing has changed. The commission has not demonstrated impartiality in the run up to the campaign — the voter update exercise, display of registers and other duties. We shall keep our fingers crossed, unsure of what the future holds, in the remote hope that the commission will miraculously reinvent itself and conduct a fair election.

Sections of the opposition proposed a boycott of the polls. Why are you forging forward despite these concerns?

A boycott is a very contentious matter. In order to be effective one would need complete unanimity, which is difficult to achieve. Remember the dictatorship functions through proxies so there are people who masquerade as opposition members just to give legitimacy to what is perceived to be the state of affairs. Also, with a flawed system an election provides an opportunity to expose it and rally people to push for change.

What do you make of the defections from other parties to the ruling party?

They don’t come as a surprise at all. The political elite in this country is largely unprincipled, opportunistic, greedy and often preys on the leadership of the opposition then compromises it not only through bribes but through blackmail, terror and intimidation as well. Some people who cross over do it out of coercion for safety reasons. Unfortunately, the government spends colossal amounts of taxpayers money to win their support — money that should have been used to provide basic services to the ordinary people. But this works against it. So whereas you have one or two leaders from the opposition defecting to NRM, hundreds of thousands of disenchanted people cross over to the opposition.

Initially, IPC raised a lot of hope but now appears shaky. Will it stay united?

The alliance was built in two stages. The first objective was to push for electoral reforms. Along the way we decided it was beneficial for all of us to have a common electoral platform where we could jointly field our candidates and share our scarce resources. We have moved on quite well so far, but like any other organisation where people come from different backgrounds, areas of contention are inevitable. However, these have not distracted us from our mission.

You have made bold statements concerning the Buganda Kingdom. How deliverable are your promises?

There is nothing bold or unique about my stand. Some people think that a federal system of government is needed only by the people of Buganda which is not the case. The Odoki Commission which gathered views across the country in the mid 1990s showed that 65 per cent of the people supported a federal system. The other issues Buganda wants resolved are minor — such as debt owed by the central government and recovering kingdom property still being held by the government. If you have a debt what is contentious about that? The problem comes in when one is unwilling to pay.

Museveni has been wooing voters in the north— a known opposition stronghold. Do you feel threatened by his action?  

Museveni is just desperate. He is doing everything he can to turn his fortunes around. The differences between the people of northern Uganda and the NRM regime are irreconcilable. They have been marginalised for 25 years and have suffered the effects of a prolonged war that the government should have ended a long time ago. It is going to take generations to heal northern Uganda.

What is your strategy for retaining your strongholds while breaking new ground in places like western Uganda?

Western Uganda has been a problem largely because of patronage networks. While Museveni was marginalising the north, he was concentrating on the south. Western Uganda is neglected. They lack basic services. Our platform becomes appealing as right from the word go we have been telling the electorate what makes the system faulty and proposed what needs to be done to change it.

Our message is that we must trim the cost of public administration, we must shed this patronage system and revert money back to the people. We must invest in areas such as agriculture where the majority of people derive their livelihood, education, health and infrastructure. These are issues people now realise will guarantee their economic wellbeing and stability.

The IPC has not been able to field candidates to contest for all positions at the lower levels government. What does this leave it in terms of capacity to organise and mobilise people at the grassroots?

I have heard rumours that we got only 40 nominees. That is not true. We have 64 nominated candidates for district chairperson. In some areas other opposition political parties have fielded their candidates. Where we feel the candidate is strong, we don’t field our own.

In other areas we tactfully agree to support an independent candidate depending on the politics governing the district. The challenge here is the intimidation and buying of candidates. You have your candidate and they give him Ush50 million ($21,691) and tomorrow he does not register. But that does not change what is happening on the ground. Sometimes it angers the people even more.

For example in 2006, I won in every district of West Nile but all the chairmen are NRM. It simply shows that there is a problem which is not related to support for the NRM. And that is why people who don’t think that it is important to remove Museveni are mistaken.

Museveni is the system. The system is a neo-patrimonial regime where Museveni is the patriarch. He determines everything, he is the almighty, he terrifies everybody and he is the source of all money. So you cannot talk about changing the system without changing the patriarch. Therefore even if we had no chairperson at all but Museveni lost the election, all those things would change.

Some people claim you are simply focused on regime change and lack an agenda beyond that.

That is a ridiculous claim. After every election, Museveni has abandoned his own manifesto and tried to implement what we propose. He proposed to introduce payment for medical services through cost sharing, what happened? Instead he tried to implement what we proposed — the abolition of graduated tax. Then without prior arrangement he abolished it leaving local governments bankrupt. As part of his manifesto, he also said he would abolish payment of university education, but abandoned it. I think Museveni has nothing new to offer Ugandans. He has failed to do so in 25 years. Only someone who is unusually optimistic would trust that Museveni is capable of changing anything in Uganda today.

It has also been suggested that you are too emotional, too angry a man to lead a country?

All that is spin and doesn’t come as a surprise. Our enemies attend our rallies and pick segments where I am strongly emphasising a point then use them to disparage me. But those are simply acts of desperation. Our support on the ground is mounting. If our rivals think such spin and manoeuvres will help them, they are just wasting their time.

What are your options in case you don’t win?

That wouldn’t be a problem so long as the process is free and fair. After all, you go into an election to either win or lose. The verdict in 2001 was that the process was neither free nor fair. It was the same in 2006. In such a case you cannot say I lost. You can only lose in a free and fair election.

Would you be willing to contest against Museveni again In case you lose?

I have said it before. We are keenly watching the election process. If NRM steal our votes we shall not go to courts because even after finding the election was flawed it did not offer any solution. So we will weigh other options. If we have three rigged elections in a row, then I will rule out elections as the solution to changing our government.

In case Museveni retains power, what’s the future of Uganda?

Museveni has been an illegitimate president for five years. If he perpetuates that illegitimacy, it could spell doom for the future of Uganda.