Tanzania’s opposition parties are expected to capture new parliament seats in a dozen to 15 regions, along with critical new power to redraw constituency maps and influence local elections for five years to come.

With general election results starting to come out this Monday, political analysts are predicting that Chama cha Mapinduzi will emerge again as the largest party alongside a sharply increased representation of opposition parliamentarians.

Seven of the biggest prizes for opposition parties are Mara, Kagera, Kilimanjaro, Kigoma, Shinyanga, Arusha and Rukwa. CCM is expected to lose some seats in all these regions as opposition parties push hard to gain members.

CCM meanwhile hopes to take away some opposition-controlled constituencies but analysts contacted by The EastAfrican predicted opposition parties would succeed in holding on to those constituencies which they still commanding.

Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema), Civic United Front (CUF), United Democratic Party (UDP) and Tanzania Labour Party (TLP) could capture constituencies in Hai, Bariadi East, Vunjo, Kigoma North, Mpanda Central and Bukoba Urban, Karatu and Tarime.

Dr Azaveli Lwaitama, political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam said that CCM know they have tight contests in at least 15 constituencies where their majority is threatened.

Dr Lwaitama said the places where CCM has an opportunity to make inroads into opposition territory will depend on the individual candidate’s acceptance to the voters and those who are not aligned to the groups within CCM.

“I believe the opposition is strongly positioned to gain in parliament because voters are particularly angry this year about the economic situation and we also have new young voters,” he said.

In the outgoing parliament, CCM controlled the House with 254 seats; CUF held 22; the TLP and Chadema held five each, and the UDP, two. Seven seats were vacant.

At present, opposition parties are aiming to break the CCM stranglehold by securing votes from workers as well as student voters in 239 constituencies countrywide.

According to Dr Lwaitama, Chadema is likely to capture the Nyamagana seat where the incumbent Lawrence Masha is facing strong opposition from Ezekia Wenje Dibogo of Chadema.

In Kigoma North, the incumbent, Zitto Kabwe from Chadema, is likely to retain his seat while in Moshi Urban incumbent Philemon Ndesamburo of Chadema will mostly likely also retain his seat.

In Mpanda North, CCM’s Sebastian Simon Kapufi is facing a strong challenge from incumbent Said Amour Arfi who defected to Chadema from CCM and is likely to keep the seat.

The electorate has been closely observing the candidates to monitor to what extent they can be trusted. The records of individual MPs have been subjected to unusual scrutiny by the public and all the major parties have had to offer alternative reform proposals to ensure that corruption, a key issue in the election, is eliminated from parliament.

According to Dr Lwaitama, for the CCM presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete to win the election, he will need to command six Lake Zone regions where there is large population with a strong educational background.
The battle for control of parliament focused on a handful of toss-up races.

Personalities have come to the forefront in this election campaign. Whereas each elector can only vote for his or her candidate standing in their constituency, the impact of the personalities has been the focus of many voters.

Ramadhani Feruzi, deputy secretary general of CCM in Zanzibar, says that CCM could make surprise gains in those areas and it will be a mistake to count the ruling party out.

Mr Feruzi said CCM policies are major factors as the party is focusing on rebuilding the economy alongside the danger of tampering with a strategy that is working well albeit slowly.

CCM is claiming that they are at present in the lead, as they are expected to be. What they did not expect was that it would be the opposition who would be pushing them.

With several contentious parliamentary races to decide, CCM is praying for an outright victory rather than a situation in which it may have to depend on opposition party support to pass critical legislation.