Uganda is projecting a six per cent rise in tea production this year on the back of increased use of fertilisers and acreage but climatologists are predicting sharp drops in output in the coming years.

Uganda Tea Association executive secretary George William Sekitoleko said production would increase to 64 million kilogrammes, up from 59.4 million kilogrammes last year. Tea export earnings are now on average about $100 million.

But scientists said a progressive rise in temperatures, which will be evident by 2020 and peak in 2050, would lead to increased attacks from pests and diseases and lead to steep decline in tea production in Uganda.

Overall climate will become less seasonal, with temperature in specific districts, increasing by about one degrees celsius by 2020 and 2.3 degrees celsius by 2050, said a report by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).

Areas that will retain suitability — the capacity of the crop to produce acceptable yields — will decrease by 20–40 per cent, compared with today’s suitability of 60–80 per cent, the study, “Future climate scenarios for Uganda’s tea growing areas,” says.

“If average temperatures rise by an expected 2.3 degrees Celsius by 2050, some of Uganda’s most lucrative tea producing areas could be completely wiped off the map,” said the study funded by the UK-based Cafédirect Producers’ Foundation and German Society for International Co-operation.

“Our tea depends on good weather and it has remained favourable. We have not had any setbacks so far but if the predictions become true it will be very unfortunate,” Mr Sekitoleko said.

Crucial industry

Tea is now Uganda’s second most important agricultural export earner after coffee. It is grown in warmer, relatively low altitude areas.
The industry, which produces some of the highest quality teas in the world, employs over 60,000 small farmers, and supports the livelihoods of up to half a million people.

Tea is mostly produced in Mpanga, Igara, Mabale, and Kayonza but the production area could be reduced to a narrow band of “marginal suitability”.

However, the report says neighbouring Kenya, where Uganda sells most of its tea through the Mombasa auction, will not suffer as much. A study by CIAT released in June 2011 also showed the likely impact of climate change on tea production in Kenya, which also showed suitability take a serious hit.

The report advises for climate assessments for possible alternative crops like cassava, banana, pineapple, maize, passion fruit, and citrus fruits.

“Helping farmers find practical, productive and profitable alternatives is a great way of spreading the risk of tea production,” said Dr Peter Laderach, a CIAT climate scientist on the team.

He advised against the shift uphill into cooler, more suitable zones for tea production because it could result in the clearing of forests and protected areas at a significant environmental cost.

The results of the study will be disseminated to farmers, policy makers and other interest groups in Kenya and Uganda to ensure action from all stakeholders.

The Cafédirect Producers’ Foundation has met with farmer groups from Uganda and Kenya to discuss the implications of the CIAT reports, and to encourage their involvement in developing sustainable options for adapting to climate change, and reducing the environmental footprint of tea production.

“Most tea farmers in East Africa are aware that the climate is changing,” said Programme Manager Kenny Ewan. “The report has certainly helped us to show farmers some of the science behind their local knowledge.”

The Foundation is encouraging smallholders to develop their own, locally appropriate, adaptation and mitigation methods. For instance they can reforest hillsides and protect water sources, as well as planting kitchen gardens.

They are also advised to introduce more resilient tea varieties.