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Uganda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among African countries likely to be hit by extreme temperatures if climate targets are missed, a new Oxford University report, says.

The global analysis concluded that African countries not only had the highest cooling requirements historically, between 2009 and 2018, but will also face the highest surge in heat exposure if the planet warms by 2ºC.

Besides Uganda, the other African countries at risk include Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Mali, South Sudan, Nigeria, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad, and Cameroon.

According to the report, Africa will see the most extreme increase in temperatures overall if the world overshoots climate targets, experiencing the highest need for cooling in a 2.0ºC scenario.

Read: Insight into Africa’s share in heavy burden of climate change

For their analysis, the authors used the concept of “cooling degree days,” a method widely employed in research and weather forecasting to ascertain whether cooling would be needed on a particular day to keep populations comfortable.

They modelled the world in 60 km grids every six hours to produce the temperature averages in the study, a process that makes the results some of the most reliable globally.

According to the study, other countries that are not traditionally prepared for increasing heat will also be severely impacted by rising temperatures if climate targets are missed.

“These conditions will pose further stress to the continent's socio-economic development and energy networks, issues that require much additional research given the limited studies of this rising threat in the African context,” Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and leader of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling, said.

“It is also a clear indication that Africa is bearing the brunt of a problem they did not create, which should further strengthen calls for climate justice and equity. Cooling demand can no longer be a blind spot in sustainability debates,” he added.

Read: Climate change adaptation should be Africa’s priority

Likewise, Dr Nicole Miranda, Senior Researcher at the University of Oxford and member of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Cooling, said: “Our findings show that nations already facing heatwaves and extreme temperatures like those in the tropics will see a major increase in extreme temperatures if the global mean temperatures rise from 1.5ºC to 2.0ºC. This is particularly true for Central African countries, with the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso and Mali suffering the highest increase with more than 250 additional cooling degree days.”

Extreme heat can lead to dehydration, heat exhaustion, and even death, especially in vulnerable populations.