By FRED OLUOCH

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Africa’s ages-old tales of illegal change of power seemed to subside after a while, but new data shows an upsurge of unconstitutional changes of governments since 2020.

A report published this week by UN Development Programme (UNDP) indicates that coups of the past may be feeding putsches ofsw today as military chiefs retain enormous influence to undermine democracy.

The UNDP says a majority of citizens who live in countries where there have been unconstitutional changes of government and democratic transition states have very little trust in military rulers turning themselves into civilian governors.

The report, Soldiers and Citizens: The Need for Democratic Renewal in Africa, is a collection of 8,000 civilian interviews across Africa.

Among the respondents were 5,000 African citizens who lived through coups or equivalent events in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan. Their views were contrasted against those of 3,000 citizens from countries on a path of democratic transition or consolidation, The Gambia, Ghana, South Sudan and Tanzania.

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UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said that besides the resurgence of coups in 2020, there has also been a growing number of “constitutional coups,” in which leaders revise constitutions to change term limits by allowing for third-, fourth- and even fifth-term mandates.

“Coups, by any definition, undermine constitutional rule, entrench bad governance, and create conditions that undermine human rights, civic freedom, and by encouraging future coups.

Multiparty break

The African Union has, since 2017, established a charter forbidding unconstitutional changes in government. Yet the continental bloc seems unable to stop the continual amendments of constitutions that retain leaders in spite of protests.

Currently, Central African Republic is facing uncertainty after the sitting president decided to push through removal of term limits. In Senegal, President Macky Sall’s initial decision to run for a third term caused violent protests. Last month, he rescinded the decision.

Between 2020 and 2022, Africa experienced six “successful” military coups — two of which were coups within coups, meaning military factions mutinied after an illegal takeover. There have been three attempted coups, despite the lull from the 1990s, when the continent embraced multipartyism.

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Overall, there have been 98 such incidents since 1952 in Africa. The main triggers of these coups are frustration with the performance of government, leaders interfering with term limits to extend their stay in office or plot to die in office, and a history of military involvement in politics such as in Burkina Faso, Chad and Sudan.

Other are declining civic confidence in transitional governments partly explained by limitations in the delivery of inclusivity, and rigged elections that bring about state fragility and questions of legitimacy of the rulers.

Bankole Adeoye, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, says African states should agree to push against undemocratic seizure of political power through inclusive governance.

“Africa is overlooking the voices of citizens — especially women and youth — must be heard, loud enough to resonate with change and inspire impact. There are many cases where the fabric of society is being excluded and is thereby left behind in the political sphere,” said Mr Bankole.

The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance is supposed to guide that. But AU’s traditional style of avoiding interference in internal matters has helped build impunity. The continental body usually sends observers to elections across its members but hardly assesses fairness of elections beyond peace calls.

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The UNDP survey coincided with the official launch of the new Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions, an initiative by the AU Commission and UNDP.

Among the key findings of the survey is that 41 percent of citizens living under both military rulers and those undergoing transition were dissatisfied with current levels of safety.

The citizens who recently lived through an unconstitutional change of government expressed a heightened appetite for change and positive transformation from the recent turmoil.

“Dealing with arms doesn’t establish schools, institutes or provide services. We just want a civil government,” said a male discussant in a focus group for this survey in Nyala, the capital of Darfur, Sudan, in February 2023.

That discussion was held before Sudan descended into its current war, which has seen Darfur fall back to old deadly skirmishes.
According to participants in the soldiers and citizens qualitative research in Sudan, one of the reasons the military gets involved in running the country is to serve its members’ interests, privileges, and social status. These incentives were unanimously described in the focus group as key causes of the October 2021 coup in Sudan.

Overall optimism and dissatisfaction were measured across several indicators such as whether respondents thought the recent political transition had a positive impact on their country; optimism or lack of it that service delivery, security, and economic circumstances would soon improve.

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Some 24 percent more UCG respondents felt excited about their country’s direction of travel than participants. In the democratic transition state such as South Sudan.

“Respondents living under governments that came through unconstitutional changes showed greater optimism and less skepticism than counterparts in countries in transition, indicating that they are willing to take a leap of faith. Yet the findings also conveyed the personal turmoil of living through a coup,” said the report.

The people who felt dissatisfied with levels of security and public safety were more likely to state that in some circumstances, a non-democratic form of government can be preferable — confirming the pertinence of security to government legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

A lack of inclusive economic growth and political participation was recorded in four out of the five UCG countries under review Chad, Guinea, Sudan, and, to a lesser extent, Mali.

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In some cases, the survey says, immediate factors triggering UCG events were clearly distinguishable. For instance, in Chad, the death of long-standing president Idriss Déby led to a transfer of power to his son, Gen Mahamat without the consent of the people.

In Burkina Faso, fatal attacks on security personnel allegedly prompted both coups. This echoes trends from other settings where coups were popular at first and suggests that support for coup leaders may be interpreted as a reaction against the status quo, rather than a wholehearted endorsement of incoming military rule.

In Guinea and Burkina Faso, crowds turned against the same leaders they had cheered into power less than a year earlier. “This sensitive interplay between hope, delivery, and expectation contributes to the risk of prolonged turbulence in transitional contexts,” the survey says.

Against this backdrop, the recent resurgence in coups has sounded a warning note. It raises the spectre of democratic backsliding, turbulence, and the close involvement of the military in political life.

“These trends signal new appetite to question the status of democracy as an optimal form of government, given the failure of leaders (including some who had been democratically elected) to provide for citizens’ needs and aspirations, is a critical proximate factor,” the report said.