The 2018 peace deal offers best guarantees to South Sudan parties
President of South Sudan Salva Kiir (R) and the country's Vice President Riek Machar attend a power-sharing deal between the South Sudanese arch-foes on August 5, 2018 in Khartoum, Sudan.
New clashes this week show the fragile nature of peace in South Sudan and the lingering mistrust between the parties. In sweeping actions, the residence of First Vice-President Dr Riek Machar was surrounded by troops while several figures from his SPLM-IO were arrested and detained.
President Salva Kiir’s moves followed the eruption of clashes in Upper Nile, where members of the White Army militia, clashed with government forces after the SPLA central command ordered a change of guard in the area.
The developments reflect an old problem that could potentially derail delicate efforts to craft a lasting peace in the country that has been at war with itself since December 2013, and a disturbing lack of commitment to peace.
The clashes in Nasir are symptomatic of a much bigger problem. President Kiir seems to be unaware that he is running a coalition government. He has made frequent changes within the government that potentially undermine the peace agreement that has maintained a semblance of peace since 2018.
Last month, he sacked two vice presidents and the head of the National Security Service. Earlier he had dismissed health minister Yolanda Awel Deng and Western Equatoria State Governor Gen. Alfred Futuyo Karaba.
The actions which appear to be an attempt by Kiir to consolidate power, attracted a rebuke from Deputy President Riek Machar, who pointed out that such unilateral decisions were in violation of the power-sharing terms of the 2018 peace agreement.
But they were not isolated. They conform to a pattern of dismissals dating back to May 2024, when Kiir first replaced Joseph Nguen Monytui the governor of Unity State, with Riek Tap Long. Two months later, he sacked Finance Minister Daniel Awow Chuang and replaced him with Marial Deng Ring.
At one level, Kiir’s actions could represent genuine responses to what the president perceives as threats to peace. The White Army, at the centre of the current crisis, was at one point allied to Dr Machar. But there is no evidence that the White Army is currently under the control of SPLM-IO.
Far from being helpful, unilateral actions such as the attack against the White Army, are likely to sow more discord than they solve. Any alteration to the delicate balance of power that was put in place by the 2018 peace agreement, can incentivise reckless actions and add delays to its full implementation.
The 2018 agreement might not be perfect, but it is what anybody committed to South Sudan peace has for now. Frequent reshuffles and firings of key government officials create uncertainty that can in turn fuel instability.
Just like his nemesis, President Kiir needs to exercise some restraint, consult more widely and make decision making inclusive. This will mitigate the risk of simple misunderstandings escalating into full-blown conflict.
The arrests of key figures in the coalition and threatening the personal security and freedom of Dr Machar, a key partner, could undermine and derail current efforts at peace, such as the Tumaini Initiative.
It also stalls the transition process including government reforms, the integration of military forces and the severally postponed elections, now due in 2026.
Ultimately, security for President Kiir and the parties to the agreement and South Sudan in general, is to be found in implementing the peace agreement to its letter and spirit.
