Uncertainty as another transition phase starts in South Sudan

Kiir has reshuffled his government in preparation for the new extension, removing long-serving Vice President James Wani Iga and replacing him with Dr Benjamin Bol Mel.

He also removed Hussein Abdelbagi Akol, now Minister of Agriculture, from the list of five vice presidents and replaced him with Josephine Lagu. 

Read: South Sudan reshuffle: Kiir sacks vice presidents in latest purge

Despite the usual revolving door, the transitional government faced the challenge of implementing key provisions of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), such as security sector reforms, the adoption of a constitution and a national census.

The holding of elections in December 2026 remains in doubt, given the trust deficit and the proliferation of rebel groups.

South Sudan's former ambassador to China, John Andruga Duku, who is a close ally of Kiir, says there is no guarantee that elections will be held in 2026 because of three main factors.

The first is the serious trust deficit among the political elite, regardless of which party they belong to. The second is the tendency to reward rebels with cabinet posts or promotions within their ranks. The third challenge, according to Mr Duku, is that politicians across the board are afraid of elections and feel safer under extensions.

“The politicians do not want to accede to the will of the people through elections, because some of them operate briefcase political parties that stand no chance of winning constituency seats, let alone the presidency,” he said.

According to the latest report of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), the official body mandated to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the R-ARCSS, much work remains to be done in thematic chapters such as governance, security, humanitarian, economic, transitional justice and constitution-making.

“The chapters on governance and security are two key areas which are intended to underpin the stable future of South Sudan. Success in this area in particular involves creating the structures of government in which the Parties to the Agreement share power and responsibility in a proportional and agreed manner; and creating a unified national Armed Force and security forces of South Sudan. Putting into practice the power and responsibility sharing and establishing structures of government in the ten states has been slow,” the report says.

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With the clock ticking, Akol Miyen Kuol, a South Sudanese political commentator, says the new Transitional Government of National Unity will not deliver on its promises on time for many reasons, including a lack of political will on the part of the governing partners to implement the agreement, failure to draft a new permanent constitution, formation of a new unified national army, and financial, technical and economic constraints.

“To ensure the full and timely implementation of all the remaining provisions of the revitalised peace agreement, there must be public pressure on the parties to set a timeframe for the implementation of all the remaining provisions of the deal,” Mr Kuol said.

Mr Duku says that failure to implement the agreements and hold elections on time would be political suicide because the people of South Sudan have made it clear that they are tired of extensions and want a chance to elect their leaders.

“The last extension in September 2024 was very unpopular and the people rejected it. It was only after President Kiir pleaded with the people that he needed time to silence that the people grudgingly accepted. However, the people with the guns are not part of the Tumaini peace talks,” he said.