Africa may be facing uncertainty in relating with the US under President Donald Trump, who takes back the mantle on Monday for the next four years.
Trump, in his first term, aroused controversy, labelling the continent in unfavourable language, but continued with some programmes established by his predecessors, such as the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar). Now, Pepfar may be in jeopardy after some Republican Congressmen claimed it had been used to procure abortions.
The claims arose from Republican Senator Jim Risch, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, that officials in the Joe Biden administration had allowed abortions.
“It is disgusting that the Biden Administration has allowed US taxpayer dollars to be used to perform abortions overseas. This is not only illegal – it cuts against deeply held American values,” Risch said on Thursday.
Pepfar began in 2003 under Republican President George W. Bush, backed almost equally on both sides of the divide. But abortion is a subject Trump has criticised and could likely strike down the programme, if evidence emerges that beneficiaries have used the monies to procure abortions.
Pepfar, over the past two decades, became one of the most important programmes for the poor in Africa in the management of Aids. It is not the only uncertain issue about Trump.
Trump has come up with an expansionist idea, seeking to annex Canada, Greenland and Panama. That may not only reflect expansionism but also protectionism: Panama is one of the most important trade routes in the world, offering a shorter passage through the Gulf of Mexico.
While Trump 1.0 sought to create trade agreements favourable to the US, he has also shown readiness to chuck anyone not toeing the line. He threatened to kick South Africa out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), whose renewal this year still hangs in the balance.
Some experts believe Trump’s foreign policy will prioritise transactional relations, in line with his American First mantra, and shift away from multilateral partnerships – with aid, trade, health and climate agreements now uncertain.
Trump’s focus, they warn, could be limited to how Africa fits within his broader geopolitical objectives, especially concerning his rivalry with China.
“The person Trump will be in the new era, this second season of his presidency will be quite the same as who he was before, putting America first,” said Dr Winnie Ruggut, programme lead at Africa Centre for the Study of the US, Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies, University of Nairobi.
“He will be more transactional in agreements that will be more like short term goals for the US, rather than the traditional ones such as the ones made by the Democrats, who are very keen on long term kind of engagements.”
Opinion is divided on whether Trump will maintain America’s renewed focus on Africa. It may depend on aligning US and African interests.
This is despite their diversity – and Washington’s push to counter Russia and China’s growing influence. There is the school of thought that Trump’s America First agenda, notwithstanding, Africa matters.
In Kenya, for instance, regardless of the US’s policy trajectory, Kenya is confident that it won’t change to its disadvantage and Trump is likely to explore a trade deal with Kenya, as he did during his first term.
Kenya began free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations in 2020 under Trump and Uhuru Kenyatta. The Biden administration did not continue the FTA talks; it instead launched the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (Stip) in July 2022.
Kenya held the eighth negotiating round under the Stip in Washington, DC from September 16-27, 2024, the last of the negotiations under Biden.
It is unclear whether Trump will continue with the Stip or revert to the FTA, and Kenya’s Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi hopes for its conclusion.
“The Stip actually started during Trump’s era. We had been having Stip negotiations up to last year. We hope that we have a conclusion. But if it doesn’t go that way, the FTA is still something we could negotiate,” said Mr Mudavadi, also the Prime Cabinet Secretary.
There are concerns as to whether Trump will renew Agoa despite many Republicans supporting it. The concerns arise from the fact that Trump hates free trade – let alone preferential, non-reciprocal access to the US market.
And it is not yet clear if the majority of Republicans in the new Congress supports him on this or has the courage to express their opposition if they don’t.
But Dr Rugutt is optimistic that while every American president establishes his own policies, many programmes continue beyond the end of presidents’ terms because they have solid bipartisan support in Congress.
“When it comes to what we expect from him, it might not all be gloom and doom. In my opinion, we could have more investors coming in. Investments that meet the interests of the US, including renewing Agoa, on renewable energy and others,” he said.
A number of US programmes, including the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), though threatened with budgetary cuts under the Trump administration, will continue.
The MCC on December 19, 2024 reviewed the countries that would continue to receive support and cited Tanzania, but with a caution that the local elections of November 2024 were marred by irregularities, a move that caught the attention of the MCC Board, which had pulled the programme out after electoral mess of 2016 in Zanzibar.
“Selection of Tanzania for FY 2025 recognised the progress that has been made in developing a threshold programme. However, in making the selection the Board expressed concern that the November 27 local elections were a missed opportunity to open political space and advance democratic reforms,” said the MCC Board in their ‘Report on the Selection of Eligible Countries for Fiscal Year 2025.’
In 2025, the MCC will continue to support countries in Africa, including Zambia, Togo, The Gambia, Senegal, and Cabo Verde.
“The Board also noted with concern reports of disappearances, political violence, and restrictions on peaceful assembly and press freedoms and urges the Government of Tanzania to protect democratic freedoms as the country prepares for national elections in 2025.”
As his administration sets out to deliver on his campaign promises at home and assert US leadership abroad, the US cannot afford to ignore Africa.
Kenya’s newly elevated status as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (MN-Nato) ally by Biden could offer Nairobi some bargaining chips in the international space.
Despite Trump’s America First policy and negative views on Nato, experts say he may temper his approach by focusing on strategic bilateral partnerships with MN-Nato allies like Kenya.
And given the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, US-Kenya bilateral engagements might move the needle towards securing commitment to America’s over $300 million funding pledge to the mission.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio, nominated as Trump’s Secretary of State, last week said that the answer to Haiti’s gang-fuelled security crisis will not come from US military intervention, but could still come from a multinational support effort spearheaded by the Biden administration, indicating that President Trump would stay the current US policy course on the Caribbean nation’s persistent emergency once he takes office.
“I do think it does begin with stability and security. You’ve got to establish some baseline security, and it’s not going to come from a US military intervention,” Rubio said during a confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Wednesday.
Funding Kenyan troops through a multinational support would be a tall order, given the Trump camp’s reluctance to fund the UN, and peacekeeping in particular – despite the US proposing the resolution to replace the Kenyan-led MSS with a UN mission.
But, whether Trump himself chooses to follow Rubio’s policy vision remains unclear. And getting the Kenyan mission to become a UN peacekeeping force requires the vote of the Security Council.
China and Russia, which have veto power, have both balked at the idea.
Trump’s administration will probably continue its security relations in East Africa and the Horn – largely due to Rubio’s visit to Kenya and Somalia in 2019, part of a bipartisan oversight mission for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
South Africa, which assumed the G20 chair on December 1, 2024, now faces a dual challenge of maintaining neutrality while addressing growing geopolitical divisions – seeking to build consensus among G20 members and an expanded Brics+ grouping while managing a more isolationist US under Trump’s leadership.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has been under constant threat of suspension from Agoa for more than two years because it’s chumminess with Russia, China and Iran – and its hostility towards Israel, which has deemed to be a threat to US foreign policy and national security interests, which would violate eligibility for Agoa.
Michael Waltz, Republican representative for Florida, led a push to review US-South Africa ties, a move Biden resisted. Waltz will be Trump National Security Advisor.
Scholars from the Centre for Strategic & International Studies, one of the world’s pre-eminent public policy institutions on foreign policy and national security issues, say it would not be in the US’s national interest to sever economic ties with SA.
“Any ostracisation of South Africa will likely push Africa’s hegemonic power into the orbit of Russia and China. This could provide the United States’ foremost geopolitical rivals with a competitive edge on a continent endowed with critical minerals and which is home to the world’s fastest-growing consumer market,” said Ryan Cummings, CSIS senior associate, Africa Programme.
“If such losses are to be avoided, both the US and South Africa may be forced into concessions that emphasize mutual interest.”
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