The dawn of Donald Trump’s second term heralds a tumultuous era for the European Union, as its leaders grapple with seismic shifts in trans-Atlantic relations.
The EU, long accustomed to a reliable partnership with the United States, now faces the daunting challenge of navigating an unpredictable alliance under Trump’s radical policies.
With tariffs poised to escalate, a vow to halt the Ukrainian conflict, a push for deregulation, and a call to restore traditional family values, Trump’s administration threatens to redefine the very fabric of US-EU relations.
If these ambitions come to fruition, they will signify a profound transformation in the alliance historically anchored by shared ideals, economic synergy, and strategic collaboration.
During his first term, the Trump administration announced tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, citing national security concerns.
These tariffs affected numerous European exporters, leading to a swift response from the EU, which imposed retaliatory tariffs on American products.
The EU viewed these measures as unjustified and harmful to the principles of free trade. Nonetheless, the tariffs strained economic relations between the US and the EU.
European leaders expressed concerns about the potential for a trade war and its impact on global economic stability. The tariffs also led to increased uncertainty for businesses operating across the Atlantic, affecting investment decisions and supply chain management. There is no sign that Trump will not repeat his imposition of tariffs on EU goods.
Beyond trade, Trump’s earlier policies also had significant implications for geopolitical and security issues. The US and the EU have long cooperated on a range of international challenges, including counterterrorism, non-proliferation, and regional conflicts.
However, Trump’s approach to foreign policy then led to divergences on key issues. He was ambivalent towards Ukraine, especially in the context of Russian aggression.
While the EU has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, Trump’s administration sent mixed signals, at times appearing reluctant to confront Russia.
This created uncertainty about the US’s commitment to European security and its role in Nato. Indecision whether to support Ukraine or not would complicate matters not just for Ukraine but the EU.
Trump’s frequent criticism of Nato and his demands for increased defence spending by European allies also caused friction in his first term.
While European countries recognised the need to enhance their defence capabilities, Trump’s rhetoric was perceived as undermining the unity and cohesion of the alliance.
This led to debates within Europe about the future of transatlantic security cooperation and the need for greater strategic autonomy. Unfortunately, even in recent times, Trump still criticises Nato, notwithstanding its critical importance to the western alliance.
His persistent critique raises concerns about the future of collective security in Europe and the broader transatlantic relationship.
Trump argues that Nato's burden-sharing is unequal and that European allies should contribute more to their defence. While some of his points resonate with European publics, his approach often seems to undermine the alliance's cohesion and shared purpose.
The EU’s regulatory approach to technology and data privacy also became a point of contention during Trump’s presidency. The EU has implemented strict regulations, such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), aimed at protecting consumer privacy and ensuring fair competition.
European regulators have frequently imposed fines on US tech giants for practices deemed anticompetitive or in violation of data protection laws.
This regulatory environment created tensions, with US officials and companies arguing that the EU’s actions were disproportionately targeting American firms. The Trump administration criticised these measures as barriers to innovation and free enterprise.
In this term, Trump's administration may see a unique twist with his close ally, Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly Twitter), potentially influencing policy directions.
Musk's significant leverage in the tech industry could translate into demands for the EU to soften its stringent regulatory stance, particularly regarding technology and data privacy laws.
Musk's influence might push for more lenient regulations to foster innovation and growth for American tech companies operating in Europe.
This could further complicate the already delicate balance of transatlantic relations, as the EU remains steadfast in its commitment to upholding robust consumer protections and fair competition standards.
The growing importance of technology in global geopolitics further complicated US-EU relations. Issues such as AI, cybersecurity, and digital sovereignty became central to discussions about the future of the transatlantic partnership.
While both sides acknowledged the need for cooperation in these areas, differences in regulatory frameworks and strategic priorities pose a great challenge.
Environmental policies and climate change represented another area of divergence between the Trump administration and the EU.
Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in his first term was met with dismay by European leaders, who viewed it as a setback for global efforts to combat climate change.
He is likely to do the same at a time when we are experiencing environment-related incidents such as the Los Angeles apocalyptic fires.
Yet these are issues that are dear to the EU. The divergence in climate policies highlighted broader differences in approaches to environmental sustainability and global leadership.
Even though the EU could engage with subnational actors, such as US states and cities, the impact of these policy differences will be monumental.
Despite the challenges, the future of trans-Atlantic relationships will continue just like in the earlier conservative domination by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.
The EU, much like the US, could be moving towards a far-right trajectory, driven by the rising tides of nationalism and populism within several member states.
This shift may lead to a recalibration of EU policies that align more closely with conservative principles, potentially altering the direction of its socio-economic and political landscape.
While this trend might echo the Reagan-Thatcher era's emphasis on deregulation, free-market policies, and strong national defence, it also raises questions about the future of European integration and the EU’s commitment to liberal democratic values.
The rest of the world would simply have to adapt to this emerging dispensation, with countries recalibrating their foreign policies to engage with a more conservative and possibly more insular EU.
Simultaneously, the EU's internal shifts might influence its approach to global challenges, from climate change to digital governance, potentially bringing it more in line with a Trump-led US administration.
However, the core trans-Atlantic relationship, despite its evolving nature, will likely continue to be anchored by deep-rooted historical, cultural and economic ties.
Both regions must navigate this complex interplay of continuity and change to ensure a stable and prosperous partnership in an increasingly multipolar world.
While Trump's second term may present unprecedented challenges for the EU, the resilience and adaptability of the trans-Atlantic relationship should not be underestimated.
Shared history and mutual interests will likely serve as a foundation for navigating the complexities ahead. As both sides strive to reconcile their differences and find common ground, the enduring bond between the US and the EU remains crucial for maintaining global stability and prosperity.
Prof Bitange Ndemo is Kenya’s Ambassador to Belgium and EU.
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