When Donald Trump returns to the helm of American power on January 20, 2025, there could be a dispute about American foreign policy. This is owing to his reputation in disrupting the status quo.
During his first presidential term, Trump's foreign policy approach was uneven. This might be linked to the chaotic environment of the Trump White House, where he appeared at odds with his administration, resulting in a lot of personnel changes and inconsistency in foreign policy posture, ultimately undermining his ability to execute some of his foreign policy ambitions.
While Trump's foreign policy perspective is based on illiberal nationalistic isolationism, he is unlikely to ignore the more competitive nature of international relations and Africa's expanding links to alternative trade partners, including China, Russia, and other American competitors. As a result, we anticipate a combination of opportunities and difficulties for the continent.
Trump's foreign policy pronouncements are essentially consistent with his first term, including illiberalism, isolationism, and nativism.
The America First motto, which contradicts the existing multilateralism, will result in his presidency taking an insular approach.
Trump's America First policy stance implies that interests and commitments to other countries and international institutions are secondary and pursued only insofar as they align with Washington's grand strategic objectives.
Second, Trump's foreign policy will take a transactional approach, using coercion, such as economic sanctions, to pressure other international participants. At the same time, this strategy indicates a readiness to connect diverse issues to win economic concessions.
Third, Trump will most likely undermine the myths and the power of American exceptionalism. Trump 2.0 will result in a more Maga-friendly administration than existed in 2017.
As a result, Trump will likely cleanse bureaucrats and military professionals who oppose his ideas by reclassifying civil service posts as political slots.
Regarding climate change, America's geopolitical struggle with China, as well as the market implications, will cause Trump to rescind the majority of the major climate action initiatives reinstated by the Biden administration.
Furthermore, Trump will greatly upset the international climate financing framework, which Washington is a key contributor to.
Despite its America First foreign policy, Africa has various opportunities. First, Africa's strategic relevance in the 21st century has increased.
Russian and Chinese entities are increasingly becoming more in control of the African supply chain for minerals essential to new technology.
African states are an important regional bloc that protects China and Russia from international isolation for alleged human rights violations, and African states strongly support China's foreign policy on matters such as its internal policies in Hong Kong, and surrounding South China Sea conflict arbitration, and Taiwan.
As a result, while Trump may exhibit little interest in Africa, he is unlikely to uproot Washington from the continent. Trump 2.0 may be similar to Trump 1.0, in which his government continued many of its predecessors' beneficial initiatives.
Africa's geopolitical dynamics cannot allow Trump's America First agenda to bring the region closer to Russia and China.
Second, African states that are tired of Washington lecturing them on US social and ideological policies such as abortion and pro-LGBT measures may gain from Trump's emphasis on basic African issues like security, economic involvement, and human rights.
Trump 2.0 will likewise face significant obstacles. First, the America First policies will target African countries with little strategic importance to the US.
For example, during Trump's first term, the US expressed interest in bilateral trade agreements rather than the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).
This Agoa agreement allows certain items from qualified African countries to enter the US market duty-free. This legislation enables some products from 32 Sub-Saharan African countries to be imported duty-free.
This will have a detrimental impact on countries that benefit from the Agoa. Although it may benefit countries that are able to reach agreements with his administration, it may also lead to fragmentation in US-Africa commercial relations, harming smaller economies with less bargaining leverage.
Second, Trump publicly opposes multilateral organisations such as the United Nations and the African Union, preferring to exert influence through bilateral agreements with favoured strongmen. As a result, Trump's trade conflict with China may have a greater impact on relations with Africa.
Third, Trump's protectionism would result in a stronger currency, making it difficult for some African economies to access global capital markets.
Fourth, the Trump presidency will reduce financing. In many regions of Africa, such changes might be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and options are heavily subsidised by US programmes.
Aside from efforts to undermine international institutions, a Trump 2.0 administration would target specific UN initiatives that benefit Africa, particularly in health and education. Then there is climate change. For example, just as during his first term, Trump might withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
Reduced American support for climate initiatives and the rollback of progressive “green” legislation can potentially undermine global climate goals and exacerbate environmental deterioration in vulnerable regions such as Africa.
The second Trump administration might approach the African countries through the lens of transactional diplomacy, focusing on US security interests, economic opportunities, and countering China’s growing influence in the continent.
It will likely de-emphasise long-term humanitarian and governance efforts, reflecting broader priorities to minimise US financial and military commitments in Africa.
Abdisaid M. Ali, a former Foreign Affairs minister of Somalia, is Chairperson of Lomé Peace and Security Forum.
