Lourenco’s gamble: Interests in Angolan leader’s quest to broker peace in Congo

On Monday, the Angolan presidency announced that a delegation from the DRC had arrived in Luanda for direct negotiations with M23, with the rebel group expected to join later that day.

However, the M23 rebels abruptly pulled out of the talks, accusing the European Union of undermining the peace process through sanctions imposed on its members. The group also blamed the Congolese government for refusing to agree to a ceasefire. Despite Angola’s efforts to facilitate discussions, the planned negotiations did not materialise as scheduled.

Angola’s interest in Congo

Analysts believe Angola’s involvement in the DRC peace process is driven by both strategic and humanitarian concerns. João Gonçalves, an Angolan expert in African affairs, argues that Luanda is deeply invested in pacifying its neighbour due to shared history and economic interdependence.

“But Angola suffers more,” Gonçalves stated in a local TV talk show on Monday, emphasising that Angolans and Congolese have familial and historical ties beyond mere diplomacy.

Beyond sentimental reasons, Angola and the DRC share a 2,500-kilometre land border, the longest in mainland Africa. Additionally, both countries are part of the Lobito Corridor, a transport initiative that could facilitate access to mineral-rich regions in Zambia, DRC and Angola. Initially backed by the US under President Joe Biden, the corridor has attracted interest from South Korea and the African Development Bank (AfDB), but its success hinges on regional peace and stability.

A history of refugee exchange

Angola has been significantly affected by the ongoing DRC conflict, hosting approximately 57,000 refugees, half of whom are Congolese, according to government data. These numbers fluctuate depending on the intensity of violence in the DRC. Historically, during Angola’s own civil war, the DRC provided refuge for thousands of Angolans. This reciprocal relationship underscores the interconnected nature of the two nations’ stability.

Lourenço’s personal involvement

Since taking office in 2017, President Lourenço has been actively engaged in mediating peace efforts in the DRC. Speculation has arisen regarding his personal family ties to the Congo, though he has never confirmed such claims.

Luanda has hosted multiple meetings involving Congolese political leaders, Rwandan representatives, and other key stakeholders in the eastern DRC conflict. The African Union (AU) has endorsed these efforts, recognising Lourenço as a leading figure in the Great Lakes Region’s peace process and facilitator of the Luanda Process.

Recent diplomatic efforts and setbacks

Last week, President Lourenço hosted his Congolese counterpart, Félix Tshisekedi, for political consultations in Luanda. He also met with a delegation of Congolese religious leaders, led by Fulgence Muteba, President of the National Episcopal Conference of Congo – highest organ of the Catholic church in DRC.

Despite these efforts, the conflict persists. In his dual capacity as AU chairperson and mediator, Lourenço called for a ceasefire in eastern DRC from midnight on March 16, 2025. His appeal, however, went unheeded.

Speaking at an AU Peace and Security Council meeting in Addis Ababa, he reaffirmed Angola’s commitment to preventing the “balkanisation” of eastern DRC and resisting any attempts to overthrow the Congolese government through military means.

“…we have decided not to fold our arms and to insist on finding peaceful solutions,” he said.

What lies ahead for Angola’s mediation role?

Political commentators hold varying views on the potential outcomes of Angola’s mediation. Osvaldo Mboco, a political analyst, believes Angola’s diplomatic efforts could yield positive results in the short, medium, and long term.

Meanwhile, José Gama suggests that President Lourenço may continue his mediation efforts, driven by the prospect of enhancing his political legacy.

However, there are concerns that any success in the DRC could be leveraged for domestic political gains. Some critics speculate that Lourenço might use his achievements in foreign diplomacy to justify extending his presidency beyond the current second and final term.

The SADC-EAC factor

A new challenge for Angola’s mediation efforts is the appointment of peace facilitators by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC). A meeting of foreign ministers from both blocs on Monday resolved to finalise the appointments by March 30. The roles and responsibilities of these facilitators remain unclear, raising the possibility of either complementing or conflicting with Lourenço’s mediation efforts.

As the situation unfolds, Angola’s role in the DRC peace process will be tested, with significant implications for regional stability and Lourenço’s political standing.