By AGGREY MUTAMBO

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Said Abdullahi Deni, the leader of Puntland State, was not in the list of Somalia’s presidential contenders – until late last month.

However, for months, there was talk in Somalia’s political circle that he could either be a king maker or try to be the king himself in the delayed presidential polls, now scheduled for May.

Support

And even the initial confirmation that the Puntland state leader will be running for Somali Presidency came from his close ally, Jubbaland leader Ahmed Madobe.

“My brother Said Abdullahi Deni is going to run for the post of the federal president and needs the support of all of us,” Madobe told an audience over dinner on March 20 in Garowe, the capital of Puntland state, according to a dispatch from his office then.

Both Madobe and Deni have faced familiar relationships with the federal government. They both accuse President Mohamed Farmaajo of trying to undercut their leadership in their respective federal states

Madobe’s second term was once ‘nullified’ by President Mohamed Farmaajo, but later admitted on an interim tenure. And although he seems headed for the full four-year term since 2019, he faces occasional opposition in some districts in Gedo.

‘Bringing change in Somalia’

For Deni, his federal state, one of the five in Somalia, is the oldest. Set up in 1996, it influenced the creation of others, mostly curved out of the initial 18 administrative regions in Somalia. It has relatively stable institutions, including a lower rate of terrorist attacks. But still, Deni accuses Farmaajo of trying to undo his successes in Puntland by fuelling local feuds.

“We have been under siege by the central government as well. We have faced unprecedented efforts by the Farmaajo government to take power away from the people at regional and local levels and to consolidate it in the hands of a few,” his office said on Monday in a statement.

“Somalia cannot afford 5 more years with a government that is at war with our country’s constitutional order. President Deni is running for president in order to correct this dangerous course we are on,” it said, adding that him running for the post is meant to defend the rule of law, recover fragile institutions, and protect Somalia’s federal system.

Puntland contenders

Deni isn’t the only new entrant in the race.

Omar Sharmarke, a former Prime Minister, has also said that he will be running for president. This could complicate the race as incumbent Farmaajo, Deni and Sharmarke all come from Puntland.

So far, two former federal Presidents, two former Prime Ministers, several former Ministers and other new faces have announced presidential bids. The candidature this time could surpass that of 2016, where two dozen contenders entered the race though several of them dropped out before the polling day.

But there is something Deni brings into the game, according to Somalia political analysts. He runs a federal state that carries a significant number of representatives in the bicameral House.

“In Deni's candidacy, Farmaajo has the most serious challenger from his own backyard. In tribal [clan] terms, between them, Farmaajo and Deni share 77parliamentry votes, the biggest chunk of which Deni had a hand in picking,” said Adam Aw Hirsi, a Somali political analyst.

He was referring to Somalia’s indirect elections where elected members of Parliament hold a joint session to vote for the president in a secret ballot.

However, the election of MPs is highly influenced by federal state leaders who have to handpick candidates in a loose clan balancing act.

With Puntland allocated 77 MPs in parliament, Deni is already banking on them to weaken the incumbent, Hirsi argued. In addition, Deni’s victories have lately been in first-time contests.

“In realpolitik, Deni is a deft solicitor and a serious campaigner. In the last presidential election cycle, without any trappings and other means to speak of, and with a sitting prime minister and a former prime minister from his own clan in the game, Deni garnered 18 parliamentary votes,” Hirsi said of the last regional polls held in 2016. 

“In Puntland where he is now the president, Deni won against the Goliath of the Somali Federal Government. Back then, Villa Somalia supported a well-moneyed but an unknown rookie politician.”

Deni’s networks and experience in federal politics may work for him, according to Abdimalik Abdullahi, a Somali researcher and political analyst. He was MP and minister and was involved in the 2016 campaigns.

“[He] is believed to be financially strong,” Abdimalik added. Somalia’s past political scenes have been easier for those with money, networks among local groups and foreign entities as well as good positioning within their clans.

Promises

Like other contenders, Deni is promising to do better than Farmaajo in saving Somalia where terrorists, poverty and drought have combined to almost flatten the country. At least five million people are now displaced inside Somalia, according to latest UN figures, and nearly a million are at risk of starvation. While drought and terrorism existed before Farmaajo, Deni says that poor policy has worsened the situation.

“Somalia is currently sitting at a crossroads where the progress made over the last 20+ years is in jeopardy.

“Terrorism is on the surge and atrocities are being committed against Somalis daily. The spectre of authoritarianism is hovering over the country again,” he said on Monday in his presidential pitch.

Deni, a former minister and MP, says he will use his experience in Puntland to boost security in the federal sphere. And the first step is to normalise ties with federal state leaders, he adds.

During his tenure as Puntland’s president, terror groups have been weakened mainly because better equipped security forces, he argues, adding that he also improved infrastructure.

Last year, Puntland piloted universal suffrage, a first in Somalia in 50 years.

Three districts elected representatives in municipal pilot polls. Western diplomats liked it. However, there were hitches as some voters could not reach polling stations. Deni believes that those were lessons to show that Somalia can hold direct elections in future. He wants to implement the same at federal level.

“President Deni stands for the presidency of Somalia; he is a leader who can save our country,” said his spokesman, Jama Deparani.

“Somalia needs people to vote and peace to prevail and both are his hallmarks.”

Deni says he will repair ties with neighbours and allies so they can deal with “common threats that we face including but not limited to transnational crime and terrorism, food insecurity, and climate change.” He is rallying opposition contenders to unite under one candidate.