Kenya’s next presidential election is still more than two years away, but the battle lines are already being drawn, with major presidential contenders seeking to build fresh coalitions and new aspirants declaring their interest in challenging the old guard.
In a country where electioneering never truly ceases, the heightened political activity and realignments are unsurprising.
No governing political party or coalition has survived to contest the next election in the same form or identity since the dethronement of the independence party, the Kenya African National Union (Kanu), in 1992.
President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition appears set to face a similar fate in 2027, amid a bitter falling-out within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) - the largest party in the governing coalition - triggered by the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October.
In addition to the UDA fallout, ongoing shifts in Kenya’s political landscape are being driven by the anticipated exit of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga from local politics and public excitement over a potential shift in voting patterns following the Gen Z protests in June and July.
Former Interior Cabinet Minister Fred Matiang’i and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah are exploring potential candidatures, hoping to capitalise on a wave of public discontent with the political elite in the aftermath of the protests.
The rise of an assertive youthful cohort of digital activists aiming to delegitimise the current political class on social media platforms such as X, WhatsApp, and TikTok has led to speculation that a significant number of voters may prioritise issues over party and ethnic affiliations in the next election.
While Matiang’i and Omtatah perceive themselves as having a fighting chance, they will have to contend with widespread voter apathy among this demographic and the fierce resistance likely to be mounted by a political establishment feeling threatened by the Gen Z movement.
Mr Odinga, who narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election to Ruto in his fifth unsuccessful bid, has ostensibly retired from local politics to focus on his campaign to become the next African Union Commission (AUC) Chairman.
In October, he handed over the leadership of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Kenya’s largest opposition party, to Kisumu County Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o.
However, Odinga’s shadow continues to loom over the country’s politics amid speculation that his party might forge a pre-election alliance with President Ruto’s UDA.
These rumours began in February when the President endorsed Odinga’s bid for the AUC chairmanship and intensified in July with the inclusion of five ODM members in the reconstituted Cabinet following the Gen Z protests.
Additionally, ODM-affiliated Members of Parliament supported the impeachment motion against Gachagua, the former Deputy President, in October.
The emerging alliance between Ruto and Odinga is sending ripples through the opposition Azimio One Kenya Coalition, which backed Odinga’s presidential bid in 2022.
Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, presumed to be Azimio’s candidate for the next election, has been forced to pivot, with the coalition’s future increasingly in doubt.
Last week, former Justice Minister Martha Karua, who was Odinga’s running mate in the last election, announced that her party, Narc Kenya, was withdrawing from Azimio.
This leaves Musyoka’s Wiper Democratic Movement and the Democratic Action Party – Kenya (DAP-Kenya), led by former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa, as the coalition’s main partners.
The Jubilee Party, led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, is nominally part of the coalition, but the majority of its MPs have shifted their allegiance to President Ruto.
Left with a weakened coalition, Musyoka is now courting Gachagua for a political alliance to bolster his anticipated presidential bid.
Discussions about a Musyoka-Gachagua pact reportedly featured at a forum held to welcome the former Vice President’s Akamba community into a cultural grouping called the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru Association (Gema).
Some participants at the forum are believed to be proxies for the two politicians.
Gachagua remains ineligible to run for any elective office for ten years due to his impeachment unless he succeeds in overturning the ruling in court.
Nonetheless, he retains significant political influence in the Mt Kenya region and is expected to play a pivotal role in determining which candidate secures the backing of the country’s largest voting bloc.
