The recent agreement between the Somalia government and the Jubbaland administration has improved the security situation in Kismayu but the fight for resources between the clans remains a major challenge.

READ: In Kismayu, fragile peace or a gathering storm?

It has also downplayed the previous tension over concerns that the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) — serving under the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) — were getting sucked into local politics and behaving like an occupational force.

According to Dr Muhammed Ali, a specialist on conflict in the Horn of Africa, the agreement was a positive political development that cooled earlier suspicions between Kenya and the government of Somalia over the real intention of the intervention and has been a major blow to Al Shabaab, which sought to use the division to portray the Amisom forces in the south negatively.

The agreement saw to it that the recognition of the Jubbaland administration led by Sheikh Ahmed Madobe will allow gradual integration of Jubbaland’s militia into the Federal government while Jubbaland maintains its own police force.

READ: Somali Prime Minister disowns Jubaland ‘presidents’

It also included the transparent management of revenues from Kismayu port and airport, which has been the main bone of contention between Kenya and the Somali Federal Government. Mogadishu was initially opposed to the Jubaland government on suspicion that it was an attempt to carve out a Kenya-friendly enclave.

These developments are a major relief to Kenyan Amisom forces, even though the rivalry between the Ogaden and the Marehan clans over the control of resources still remains a threat to the peacekeepers. 

However, there has been concern that some elements within the Somali Federal Government have been covertly supporting the campaign to kick Kenya out of Kismayu, to the extent that they could be willing to collaborate with forces of instability, including Al Shabaab.

Former deputy Speaker of the Kenya National Assembly, Farah Maalim Mohammed, said that the port of Kismayu is very lucrative because of its revenues from port taxes and levies on arms and other illegal imports.

He argues that the recent terrorist attack on Kenya’s Westgate Mall was a result of religious bigotry and Kenya’s presence in Somalia, but it could also have been because some clans perceive Kenya as a major obstacle to their once thriving trade.

Thus, Kenyan peacekeepers in Kismayu sometimes find themselves caught up in inter-clan competition for power and resources. Historically, the Marehan dominated the politics of south Somalia given that former president Siad Barre was from the same clan, but the majority Ogaden have since emerged wanting more say in the affairs of the region.

In July, a UN Monitoring Group report alleged that Kenyan troops in Kismayu were facilitating the illicit trade in charcoal despite the export ban, and that a section of Kenya’s military, politicians, and well-connected businessmen were profiting from the illicit trade in Somalia. Kenya has since denied these allegations.

The report argued that even though Kenya under Amisom and Madobe’s Ras Kamboni militia took over Kismayu, Al Shabaab still retained a share of the charcoal business after it lost control of the city. The monitors estimated charcoal exports from Kismayu alone to be worth $16 million per month.

READ: Trouble in Somalia over world’s largest charcoal stockpile

While Amisom has secured Kismayu, Al Shabaab still retains control of the majority of Somalia and remains capable of striking Mogadishu as well as Nairobi through terrorist attacks.

Kenya still faces questions on whether the intervention in Somalia was worth it. Kenya’s entry into Somalia in October 2011 was designed to destroy Al Shabaab and create a buffer zone, but later there were concerns from Mogadishu that it was a plan to secure Kenya’s economic interests by creating a semi-autonomous friendly region in southern Somalia.

Dr Ali said the intervention has produced some positive results because Jubbaland was awash with violence and lawlessness that spilt over to Kenya in terms of small arms and refugees.