How the latest crisis in South Sudan exposes weaker monitoring ways

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) this week admitted that the instruments of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), have not worked, especially the security arrangements.

Igad Executive Secretary, Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, observed during the 43rd Extraordinary Summit on Wednesday, that the mechanisms established to oversee security arrangements, such as the Joint Defence Board, have fallen into disuse, and confidence within the Presidency as established by the agreement has been gravely undermined.

"Moreover, progress on critical reforms, including drafting of a new constitution and preparations for elections, remain stalled, casting doubt on the practicality and chances of successfully realising the objectives of the transitional roadmap within the stipulated timelines," said Dr Workneh during the summit held virtually.

South Sudan was unrepresented in the meeting although an official explained that their scheduling requests had clashed with a busy calendar for other leaders in the bloc.

Kenyan President William Ruto and Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni as well as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed were also unable to attend, sending representatives instead. Sudan had earlier suspended cooperation with Igad and had been expected to skip the summit.

The meeting was attended by Djibouti President, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who is the current chair of Igad Heads of State, Somalia president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ethiopia, Foreign Minister, Dr Gideon Timothewos, Kenya’s National Security Adviser, Dr Monica Juma, Uganda’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs (International Affairs), Henry Oryem Okello.

Read: Igad attempts to cool tensions in South Sudan

Others included; Moussa Faki, the outgoing chairperson of the African Union Commission; Mohamed Abdi Ware, Igad Deputy Executive Secretary, the Igad Special Envoy for South Sudan, Ismail Wais, Joram Biswaro, Special Representative of the chairperson of the African Union Commission in South Sudan and Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in South Sudan.

The summit is being held virtually and will attempt to address concerns that emerged last when a militia clashed with South Sudanese forces in Upper Nile, the eastern state in South Sudan.

That group was linked to First Vice President Riek Machar and his party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-IO). It saw a number of his allies detained in what authorities said was a “conflict with the law.” Machar himself remains under house arrest.

Kiir, Machar and several other representative of armed groups formed a coalition government known as the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) after Igad mediated a peace deal they signed in 2018. The agreement was known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

However, cracks have often emerged among the ranks of the coalition. The TGoNU has been extended three times, the result of failed deadlines set by South Sudan to transition to a formally elected government.

The leaders at the Igad meeting admitted to the growing lack of trust among the Parties to the R-ARCSS, further eroded by recent incidents, and formed a Ministerial Sub-Committee to immediately travel to Juba to assess the situation and initiate an inclusive dialogue among parties.

On Monday, South Sudan President Salva Kiir dismissed three more ministers in the latest Cabinet reshuffle likely to escalate the situation.

In a presidential decree broadcast on TV, Kiir removed Ruben Madol Arol as minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs and replaced him with Wek Mamer Kuol, a former deputy Cabinet minister.

Awut Deng Acuil was relieved of her duties as minister of General Education and Instruction, with educationist Kuyok Abol Kuyok set to assume the role.

Joseph Mum Majak was dismissed as minister of Trade and Industry. Both Deng and Madol have held ministerial positions since 2020, while Majak was appointed Trade minister in July 2024.

Read: South Sudan army surrounds Riek Machar’s house, detains allies

The President did not provide reasons for their dismissals. The latest Cabinet purge came in the wake of armed confrontations in Nasir, including an attack on a United Nations aircraft, which resulted in the deaths of UN personnel and dozens of soldiers on March 7.

The continued conflict in Nasir, Upper Nile State between the South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) and the White Army militias has the potential of spreading to other areas controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposing (SPLM-IO).

Dr Workneh said the developments in Nasir serve as a critical indicator of the nation’s vulnerability to violence, despite the capital Juba maintaining an outward semblance of calm.

“The latest outbreak of violence, compounded by the detention of prominent opposition figures and a widening political divide in the capital Juba, has provoked grave concern across the region,” he said.

The SPLM-IO military and political figures arrested last week included Gabriel Duop Lam, Co-Chair of the Joint Defence Board and Deputy Chief of the SSPDF, as well as senior government officials Puot Kang, Minister of Petroleum, and Stephen Par Kuol, Minister of Peacebuilding (who has since been released).

As things stand, Igad’s Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) has been unable to enforce the ceasefire. There has been fighting in SPLM-IO controlled areas such as Upper Nile, Abyei, Twic, Western Equatoria and Jonglei.

While eight people out of the 21 people who were arrested together with the Minister of Petroleum, Puot Kang Chol have since been released, the SPLM-IO cadres within the SSPDF remain restless over fear of arrest.

SSPDF spokesperson Major General Lul Ruai Koang announced midweek that several SPLM-IO military personnel that had been integrated into the SSPDF have deserted and gone into hiding. Appeals by the army leadership for their return to work have not been obeyed.

Rajab Mohandis, a civil rights activist and member of the People’s Coalition for Civil Action, said that the appeal is likely to be ignored because the detentions, coupled with the heavy security deployment around Dr Riek Machar’s residence, signal a deliberate targeting of SPLM-IO figures. That, he argued, erodes any semblance of trust in the government’s security apparatus.

Read: Uganda says special forces deploy in Juba amid tensions

“It is naïve to expect officers who have seen their superiors detained under murky circumstances to simply return to work under the assurances of the same institution that facilitated those arrests.

‘The precedent suggests that compliance may not guarantee safety; instead, it may expose them to the same fate as their detained colleagues,” said Mr Mohandis.

South Sudan’s security sector remains deeply fractured along political and ethnic lines, with trust in state institutions low. The National Security Service (NSS) confirmed plans for further arrests, reinforcing the perception that political and military purges are underway.

The biggest challenge is the inability to unify the armed groups in line with the R-ARCSS provisions. The agreement had provided that 83,000 Necessary Unified Forces had to be completed by May 2019, eight months after the signing. Six years down the line, only 53,000 forces have been graduated, but most lack basic arms.

Mr Mohandis says that instead of being unified, the forces continue to fight among themselves, while those from the opposition continue to face arrests and detention, “showing that unification is a lost cause, symbolic and cosmetic”.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called for the urgent unification of South Sudanese Security Forces as the fundamental pillar in the 2018 peace agreement.

“The delays in implementing this aspect of the agreement have contributed to uncertainty and insecurity,” Mohamud said during the summit of Igad, adding that continued engagement between President Salava Kiir and Dr Machar is vital for national unity and the full implementation of the peace process.

“Peace South Sudan stands at a crossroads. It can either continue down a path of division, conflict, and suffering, or it can choose peace, reconciliation, and national unity,” he said.

The Igad Secretariat recommended six measures to be taken immediately in order to restore peace in South Sudan, top of which was to release detained leaders.