Migration has undoubtedly been at the centre of significant international discourse over the past decade. It has been the subject of political debate in many countries and has affected outcomes of major elections in America and across Europe. In fact, it was a significant contributor to the Brexit outcome in the United Kingdom.

Over the past year, there has been significant debate on the migration policies of both Tanzania and Kenya. In contrast, Rwanda and Ethiopia appear to be opening up their borders and relaxing business traveller requirements, particularly for fellow African nations. All this debate and divergence begs the question: Shouldn’t migration simply continue to grow with continued advances in connectivity and in the footsteps of globalisation? The answers are complex and it is important to look at some of the data and facts around migration, and distil the future outlook from some of the emerging trends.

The latest report on International Migrant Stock for 2019 published by the UN estimates that there are currently 271 million international migrants worldwide, of which roughly at least 164 million are labour migrants. Migrants therefore represent roughly 3.5 per cent of the world population. A 2016 study by McKinsey Global Institute, estimated that migrants contributed around 9.4 per cent of global GDP. It is therefore, essential to keep the data front of mind to ensure that the economic benefits are well understood.

A Worldwide Immigration Trends report by Fragomen released in October 2019 pointed to a few key trends. Firstly, protectionism, which includes methods such as eliminating migration categories such as limiting the use of short-term work permits as has been done through the abolition of the Special Pass in Uganda. Other methods include heightened eligibility criteria for work permits such as limiting the professions available for work or increasing employer obligations such as maintaining certain ratios of local to foreign nationals, training and understudy obligations or labour market tests. Whether these are positive or negative changes is subjective. Nevertheless, the outcome of these is usually reflected in competing terms vis-à-vis business constraints on hiring or deploying talent, or on the other hand addressing government priorities and local labour market needs.

Tanzanian adjudication standards have become stricter resulting in more rejections with outcomes relying more on discretion or judgement, while on the other hand, Rwanda adopts a more structured approach for designated roles that are available for work permits and one that is frequently updated with a view on labour market requirements.

These are of course complex issues requiring multifaceted solutions and will likely remain a key trend that will continue to shape business’ ability to hire and deploy foreign talent and skills.

Secondly, the global competition for talent is only increasing, largely driven by technologies such as Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, which will significantly shape our lives in yet more unimaginable ways, and manufacturing, and also considering sustainable energy movements and issues such as climate change.

Business models of global companies like Uber and Amazon or Jumia and M-Pesa services have all changed how we access services or buy products in ways that were unimaginable not so long ago.

Looking at the workplace, Generation Z is demanding different ways of engagement through temporary or flexible arrangements, being globally mobile and serving multiple employers based on choice. Some governments such as those in the Middle East are starting to adapt towards these needs including catering to freelancers with unique skills.

Thirdly, digital transformation of immigration processes continues at pace with implementation of online application processes. For instance, all countries in East Africa have introduced online application systems, many of which are still in their nascent stages. There are some excellent examples of digitisation such as Ethiopia’s entry visas and Rwanda’s overall immigration programme. This can only be expected to improve and eventually lead to enhanced processing as systems mature. A key outcome expected from this will be more integrated government systems nationally with possible regional implications as well, which will eventually enable governments to manage compliance and track foreign nationals’ status more effectively,

Finally, it is also worthy to mention the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration which is a voluntary and non-binding framework for improving migration governance and effectiveness. It calls out for decisions to be made based on data, engagement with all stakeholders with a view to eventually enhance and realise the benefits to migration for all stakeholders. Fragomen has been supporting the business mechanism in playing a key role towards bringing a private sector mentality to governments, both at the UN level and within regional and country levels.

In East Africa, this dialogue has also been initiated through the International Organisation of Migration. Going forward, this will be important to ensure adequate frameworks exist for shaping migration policies with a balanced view. There continues to be much in the way of opportunity to enhance and strengthen frameworks in this region by engaging with business to understand labour market realities, adopting intra-company transfer permits to facilitate highly-skilled mobility where it’s needed, along with improving and allowing for consistent adjudication standards.

While many of these trends play a significant role in shaping business immigration across East Africa, opportunities exist to align government priorities vis-à-vis employment opportunities for nationals and business needs to address effective engagement of skills in a highly competitive world to grow business. The goals of such collaboration should be defined under a collaborative win-win approach given that business success can generate greater economic opportunities for all while effective and long-term labour market policies can create skills geared towards business needs.

Murtaza Khan is the managing partner for Fragomen Middle East and Africa