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Borrow and be merry, for tomorrow we die (or become filthy rich from oil funds)

Thursday June 13 2019
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The new budget, like those of previous years, is heavily dependent on borrowing, to the tune of over 50 per cent. ILLUSTRATION | JOHN NYAGA

By JOACHIM BUWEMBO

The age of economic enlightenment is with us. And who ever imagined we would see it in our lifetime?

Everyone had thought that understanding the country’s trade balance, annual budget deficits, management of the public debt and relating the cost of living index to the dynamics of the capital market and the fluctuating value of the national currency would remain the preserve of economists for a long time to come.

But all citizens of Uganda – voters and Members of Parliament alike – now only need a couple of hours to comprehend the annual national budgetary proposals, analyse them and move on to other things.

In years gone by, budget proposals would be debated for weeks, even months after the finance minister had read the budget speech. Then we went all modern. The proposals are publicised before the budget speech. They are debated, discussed and harmonised. So once the budget is read, it is ready for implementation. Smart or what?

This time last year, there was some debate over the introduction of the new taxes on social media and mobile money transfers.

But now, the general national appreciation of complex economic phenomena is so developed that the proposals for the 2019-20 financial year were rapidly understood and accepted by all, and we are ready for implementation. There were hardly any voices of ignorant MPs disturbing our peace with objections to this and that, requiring the brilliant Ministry of Finance officials to spell things out to them.

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Now everybody understands everything instantly. So when the budget is read this week, it will be a mere formality, and then we shall march on to the promised year of 2020, when our great nation is expected to attain middle-income status.

The new budget, like those of previous years, is heavily dependent on borrowing, to the tune of over 50 per cent. There are reasons for this and the now economically savvy population seems to understand them, which is why no serious reservations are being expressed – even though the debt-to-GDP ratio is hovering around a dangerous 50 percent.

Through their elected representatives, 40 plus million Ugandans have endorsed the heavily debt-based budget. The endorsement is also a vote of confidence in the government’s capacity to manage the debt despite its previous record of debt management.

Of course some foolish fellows in the World Bank are trying to tell us to slow down on our borrowing. That is to be expected. They probably underestimated our determination to develop infrastructure using loans from different sources. We shall watch their faces turn green with envy when our debt portfolio doubles to hit the $20billion mark in less than a decade.

Joachim Buwembo is a political and social commentator based in Kampala. E-mail: [email protected]

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