Despite the presidential bid by former prime minister Amama Mbabazi which has upped the political temperature ahead of the 2016 elections, the opposition remains cautious, still viewing him as disruptive and a symbol of the ruling party’s intolerance of dissenting views.

The opposition says Mbabazi’s candidature will split some National Resistance Movement votes whether he chooses to stand as an independent candidate or join the recently formed coalition of the opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA).

This means the former premier will kill the chance of having an outright winner in the first round and allow alliances to be formed for the run-off. 

“Mbabazi’s political future will be realised if he manages to strike a coalition with the opposition. The reason he is hanging in there is probably because he is looking at how many people he can walk away with from the NRM,” said Gerald Karuhanga, an independent youth MP.

There is a possibility that Mbabazi will end up in the opposition coalition though not as its flagbearer, or run as an independent because his chances of winning against Museveni within NRM are slim. 

But Ken Lukyamuzi, president of the Conservative Party, which is a part of the DA said: “We are not comfortable about making Mbabazi or former VP Gilbert Bukenya our flagbearer because they are still attached to the other side. NRM can easily give a trillion shillings to any of those two to drop the bid challenging Museveni. NRM can also revive atrocious charges against any of them and take them to prison and the opposition will remain without a candidate.”

Mbabazi has so far gained traction as the issues he raises to reinforce his presidential bid rekindle the thinking against the sitting government and demystify the mysterious posture adopted by Museveni, especially with regard to succession and addressing deficiencies in the ruling party.

“On this note, Amama Mbabazi is a threat to Museveni. The deficiency in the ruling party is not difficult to ascertain,” said NRM legislator Simon Mulongo.

“Besides, Museveni is known not to take opponents lightly. He usually exhibits signs of scare and acts in haste to avoid any surprises.”

It is emerging that NRM is likely to hold a delegates conference after which the party’s flag bearer will be nominated the next day. This is intended to disadvantage Mbabazi, who, it is not clear as yet, if he will be allowed to attend the conference.

Although the NRM parliamentary caucus declared President Museveni as sole candidate for 2016 presidential elections, Mbabazi’s bid is a destabilising factor especially given his influence due to the central positions he has occupied in government.

As former director general of External Security Organisation, minister for security, minister of state for regional co-operation, minister for defence, prime minister and secretary general of the ruling party, Mbabazi leaves behind a strong influence that Museveni must worry about.

It emerged last year that Mbabazi had developed a clandestine campaign network within the party and this remains worrisome to Museveni. This has given President Museveni a double task of identifying a new taskforce while weeding out the Mbabazi elements.