East Africa is chaotic, yet, as numerous international and pan-African financial institutions frequently note, the region continues to weave its economic magic.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has consistently predicted that East Africa will be the continent’s fastest-growing economic bloc.

The most recent and detailed forecast for 2025 appears in the African Development Bank Group’s African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2024, published on 30 May 2024 during the Bank’s Annual Meetings in Nairobi. It states:

“East Africa, the continent’s fastest-growing region, will see real GDP growth rise from an estimated 1.5 per cent in 2023 to 4.9 per cent in 2024 and 5.7 per cent in 2025.”

The surprise is that East Africa—particularly the East African Community (EAC)—isn’t performing twice as well, given its vast potential. To truly shine, it must shed its destructive habits, starting with fostering greater peace.

In recent years, six of the 18 sub-Saharan African states with active armed conflicts were EAC members, accounting for roughly 33 per cent of such conflicts in the region.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Somalia, and South Sudan have endured high-intensity armed conflicts, while Burundi, Kenya, and Uganda have grappled with low-intensity, subnational skirmishes.

Beyond this, rampant corruption, governance failures, and political repression plague several EAC states. Yet the region boasts immense strengths it could leverage to rake in busloads of moolah.

For one, it has a decent share of arable land to revolutionise agriculture. Though Somalia, and to a lesser extent Kenya, drag it down, the EAC holds between 18 and 26 per cent of Africa’s arable land. The data here is shaky, and some generous estimates push this figure even higher.

The EAC is home to Lake Nalubaale/Nyanza (Victoria), Africa’s largest lake and the world’s second-largest freshwater lake by surface area, after Lake Superior in Canada and the US. Despite a handful of ships and mostly artisanal fishing, the lake sees little economic activity.

Yet, with its 1,000 islands, it could become the global capital of resort partying, tourism, and water sports. (Fun fact: Lake Bunyonyi in southwestern Uganda is 1,500 times smaller than Nalubaale but has 29 islands, giving it a far greater per capita wealth in islands.)

In these climate change-ravaged times, water is gold. Africa’s total renewable internal freshwater resources (internal river flows and groundwater from rainfall) are estimated at around 3,931 billion cubic metres. The EAC countries collectively hold 1,096.76 billion cubic metres—about 27.9 per cent of the continent’s inland freshwater.

Forests, too, have soared in value. Africa’s total forest area spans approximately 6.7 million square kilometres. The EAC’s combined forest area is roughly 2.46 million square kilometres—about 36.7 per cent of Africa’s forested land.

We owe much of this to the DRC joining the EAC; it alone accounts for around 27.1 per cent of the continent’s forest area, meaning the rest of the EAC is largely riding its coattails.

The EAC could also be a tourism titan. Consider the Pyramids of Giza (Egypt), Serengeti National Park (Tanzania), Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania), Victoria Falls (Zambia/Zimbabwe), Maasai Mara National Reserve (Kenya)—linked to the Serengeti’s migration—Table Mountain (South Africa), Kruger National Park (South Africa), Ngorongoro Crater (Tanzania), Zanzibar Archipelago (Tanzania), Sahara Desert, Okavango Delta (Botswana), Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (Uganda), Namib Desert (Namibia), Marrakech Medina (Morocco), and Virunga National Park (DRC).

Within the EAC, Bwindi and Virunga mean mountain gorillas—an arena where East Africa dominates entirely. Bwindi, Virunga, and Rwanda’s Volcanoes National Park host 100 per cent of the world’s mountain gorilla population.

The EAC also claims Africa’s five highest mountain peaks, though their icy summits are vanishing fast due to climate change. Mount Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) stands tallest at 5,895 metres, followed by Mount Kenya at 5,199 metres.

The Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda/DRC) house Mount Stanley, the third-highest at 5,109 metres, followed by Vittorio Emanuele Peak and Edward Peak, both in the same range.

Lower down, the Virunga Mountains (Rwanda/DRC/Uganda) feature a chain of volcanoes, including Mount Karisimbi (4,507 metres), while Mount Elgon (Kenya/Uganda), an extinct shield volcano, reaches 4,321 metres. Like the gorillas, this is another East African monopoly.

On renewable energy, roughly 27 per cent of Africa’s untapped non-solar renewable potential—hydropower, wind, geothermal, and biomass—lies within the EAC, based on an estimated 135 GW out of Africa’s 504 gigawatts.

This could range from 25–30 per cent depending on biomass estimates and project developments, driven by the DRC’s hydropower and Kenya’s geothermal, though tempered by weaker wind and biomass contributions.

The region is also a creative hub and a magnet for venture capital, largely thanks to Kenya’s star power. In 2023, Kenyan startups attracted £800 million in venture capital—28 per cent of all funds raised continent-wide.

EAC countries collectively secured 20 per cent of Africa’s $5.805 billion in tech funding that year, with Uganda securing $141.9 million, Rwanda $64.5 million, and Tanzania $25.8 million, all trailing behind Kenya.

For those, like Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, who champions growing populations, the EAC excels. Four of Africa’s 10 fastest-growing populations—Uganda, Burundi, DRC, and Tanzania—are EAC members.

East Africa might soon dominate Africa’s airways, too. Three of the top 10 African airlines—Kenya Airways, RwandAir, and Fastjet (Zimbabwe/Tanzania)—are EAC-based. If Ethiopia joins the EAC, Ethiopian Airlines, the continent’s leader, could shake things up. And if Air Tanzania and Uganda Airlines get their act together, it could be game over.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for East Africa to excuse its failure to become an economic powerhouse.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. Twitter: @cobbo3

It was almost the perfect year for the Women’s Run to take place in Dar es Salaam. IWD2025 fell on a Saturday, which would have allowed for us to convene at dawn in the rich neighbourhood’s open green space and enjoy some exercise together.

It didn’t happen, the holy month of Ramadan had begun and there is an unspoken understanding that we reduce our physical exertions then. Respectable reason to delay the event.

However, when the event organisers mentioned that this year the Women’s Run will also carry the theme of Clean Cooking, I had an adverse reaction.

Spent the whole day feeling bent out of shape over it — how dare they chain this event to our stoves, can we just have one (expletive deleted) day when we’re not being strangled by the focus on domesticity? The intensity of my fury shook me a little, so I had to call myself in for a chat about it.

I made myself take a beat and a cup of tea and asked my Self why I was having such big feelings this year? What was really going on?

And my Self honoured the request, drank the tea, had a nap and eventually told me: Because the corporations are doing their thing again and co-opting a deeply necessary political response to injustice for their own purposes.

Because it is not okay to reduce a women’s run to “cook clean” even if the intention is a good one: This particular intersection re-enforces the “mwanamke jiko!” problem in my stubbornly patriarchal society.

Because it took us this long to be able to exercise in public in Dar es Salaam without being pummelled to death by unsolicited comments from the sexists: these public walks are where people cheer athleticism in women!

So many “becauses” but the main one was the co-optation.

My Self told me that the anger had been brewing for a while. She has seen what happens to movements that get co-opted: it is just death, usually by Capitalism.

I asked my Self: Baby Girl, you have spent a lifetime studying the ways of Power as a social force, surely you can do better than throwing a tantrum at having your Special Day taken over by a couple of “well-intended” thugs?

My Self refused to speak to me any further as She had plans for the weekend that revolved around rejuvenation. She told me that “self-care is an act of Love, and Love is radical in 2025!” My dramatic Self has a habit of capitalising certain words for emphasis.

In due time, my Self grabbed a tampon to soak up the tears so that She could re-engage. If corporations, politicians and other actors are able to co-opt Women’s Day for their own profane uses, it is because nobody calls them out about it regularly, she said.

You used to relish being considered dangerous because you are a Feminist, she said. Maybe writing about it can start a conversation, she said. So here we are.

I am no longer split in two with agitation over Women’s Month 2025, I will be enjoying it in peace as I plot on how to co-opt or otherwise corrupt cynical and profiteering attempts to pink-wash products and services.

Besides, my Self and I are laughing in relief that at least we were not “gifted” a kanga with the President’s face on it for Women’s Day 2025. Can you imagine? Tcha!

Although I was born and raised near our capital city of Kampala and even nearer to the international airport of Entebbe, I had no need to wear pants fulltime until I went to school aged four.

Kindergarten was a later 1970s introduction. Such was newly independent African life, that many little boys also enjoyed independence from clothes in our warm weather.

Growing older, we realised the reason we weren’t stopped from running around the neighbourhood without clothes was that we had nothing worth covering then.

Watching the Ukrainian president last week as he stood his ground before a White House disciplinary committee (or lynch mob, depending on which angle you view the re-alignment of global politics from), it felt like seeing a group of Igbo brothers nodding in the background saying that Comrade Zelensky indeed deserves wearing trousers. Soon Africans will know which of their leaders qualifies to wear trousers.

At no other time after Independence did Africa need real men and women to guide it through the unjust jungle of global affairs.

The other day in Munich we saw European tears rolling when Vice President Vance indicated that US may no longer view Russia and China through Euro lenses. At least Zelensky neither wept nor caved in while being roasted in Washington.

How long will it take for a critical number of African leaders to identify and define what stakes the continent has in the oncoming storm?

Africa today is like a woman approaching middle age and running out of time to determine how to lead the rest of her life and raise sensible children.

She has been (mis)used by men who are now fighting themselves, and if she isn’t blind, sees her chance to determine her own destiny before they finish fighting and return to her, with a new formula for abusing her.

Read:  Africa presidents, look in the mirror to confirm it isn’t Trump you’ll see

And how apt that this is happening during the anniversary of the Berlin Conference when outsiders agreed on how to rob Africa without a single African at the table where the sharing was taking place!

There could be six or more options for Africa, four of them monogamous. Three possibilities would be to enter an exclusive relationship with America, or with China, or Russia.

Fourth would be to go monogamous with EU, but given the fast advancing years towards her menopause, Africa might find European indecision a big turnoff.

A fifth option would be a deal with Ukraine. Yes, many may not be aware that at the Soviet breakup 33 years ago, Ukraine was/is the second most powerful unit after Russia, of those that comprised the mighty Union in technology, military, economy and human resource development.

That Ukraine has remained standing and fighting since Russia attacked (some Americans now say Ukraine caused the war) is testimony to this. Let’s also add a footnote that the largest aircraft ever was built by Ukraine.

The Antonov An-225 Mriya, a real wonder of aviation engineering, was destroyed during the Russian invasion. Since Ukraine dreams of rebuilding the mass air transporter (its name means ‘dream’ in Ukrainian), Africa which lacks roads and railways could offer a partnership here to realise its African Continental Free Trade Area dream.

A sixth option would be opting for permanent celibacy (claiming independence or non-alignment). But given Africa’s limited technology and military capacity, this could be risky and she could end up like a village widow whose door can be kicked in by any villain.

Then to safeguard herself against such midnight attacks moreover abetted by some of her domestic staff (corrupt public officials), she may end up accepting protection from a not-so-honest guy, and the secrecy of the relationship would lead to lack of accountability on his part.

So a deal with a young man who is hard as nails and can build big airplanes for her can be a more viable option. But it takes people who have something worth covering in their clothes to make such tough decisions at a critical time for the continent.

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail: [email protected]

Auditor-General Nancy Gathungu has revealed in Senate that the system running the Social Health Insurance Fund (Shif) under the Social Health Authority (SHA) was unprocedurally acquired and is unconstitutionally operated. Its acquisition was single-sourced, shrouded in secrecy, and flouted public procurement laws.

The system cost a staggering Ksh104 billion (more than $950 million). That’s not all.

A percentage of contributions Kenyans make to the fund goes to shadowy providers and operators of the system. The Auditor-General cast doubt on the scheme’s lawfulness and effectiveness. 

These damning revelations come on the heels of public uproar over unavailability of services under the scheme. A patient who stormed the Health Ministry to protest that SHA was not working, and who was later abducted from a hospital for her derring-do, represents the frustration of Kenyans over the scheme.

Where was parliament when this scheme was being concocted ? Why didn’t relevant parliamentary watchdog committees launch their own investigation immediately the public began to complain? Why did parliament appropriate such a staggering amount for the SHA software ?

The answer is also the reason why parliament overwhelmingly passed Finance Bill, 2024, and cheered wildly when it was later withdrawn due to countrywide protests.

The reason is also why MPs supported the Adani airport deal and again cheered hysterically when it was withdraw after a US court indicted the corporation for illicit behaviour.

It is also the reason why parliament has not conducted an investigation into who murdered youth protesting plunder and misrule last year, and is continuing to abduct, torture, murder and “disappear” youthful critics of the regime.

Read:  Kenya slouching towards a police state

The answer in a nutshell is parliament long abdicated its constitutional mandate of safeguarding the public from excesses of the executive. It is no longer the people’s House. It is now the president’s House.

In a span of two years, we have witnessed abduction and murder of critics, thievery on an unprecedented scale, failure of or disquiet over flagship projects like Hustler Fund and Affordable Housing, high cost of living, Adani misadventure, fake fertiliser scam, continuation of deadly banditry in certain regions, the growth of a “culture of lies”, crises in health and education, foreign policy debacles, and now the SHA controversy.

In the spirit of King Midas, everything the regime touches turns to rust.

To adapt Winston Churchill, never in recent history has so much damage been caused to so many by so few in such a short period of time. 

Despite all the failures, many people have always assumed that the regime, at its heart, means well. They persuaded themselves that the regime would see the error of its ways and do better. No one wants to doubt that their government means well.

Even harsh critics want government to succeed. But the Auditor-General’s report mustnow force us to ask a painful question – has the regime ever meant well? Is it still logical or patriotic to assume the regime means well? Isn’t doing so living in a fool’s paradise? 

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political and social commentator.

Give it to Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta , one-time president of Kenya, just give it to him. He has the knack of sometimes making a serious point with such easygoing bonhomie you might even think he is only jesting, when he is actually in earnest.

This last one about Donald Trump cutting aid to our countries and people whining is one of them.

Uhuru puts it across with such simplicity: you do not pay taxes in America; it’s not your money, period; stop whining and instead ask yourselves what you are going to do to cover the deficit created by the end of the handouts that Trump has decreed, closing a another chapter of free lunches so beloved of our free-loading rulers.

It is concerning how much the people running our governments are prepared to go on bended knee to beg for the most rudimentary things, even when we really do not need them or we could have provided them from our own resources.

I have seen cases of very simple and cheap health campaigns carrying very loud and conspicuous billboards, just to remind us that our minds are enslaved and tied to that mental and psychological lethargy that does not allow us to see how we could have done whatever it is with our own resources, saving us the embarrassment of beggary.

Trump is back and for him that means America is back. Forget the megalomania for a moment, but remember America was not founded as an altruistic, do-gooder nation; rather it was established on the blood-soaked burial mounds of Native Americans, who were summarily exterminated and erased, and the Africans who were kidnapped and taken there as slaves.

Read:  However fantastical, world could be reinvented in Trump’s clamour

So, any attempt to see America as our benefactor must proceed from a serious misapprehension. Simply put, you are on your own, you have no rich uncle, and now you may want to remember what you were taught in primary school: cut your coat according to your cloth.
Stop living like you are rich, because you simply aren’t.

Those cars you are driven in, those luxurious foreign trips you take, the huge fraudulent deals you make on your countries’ resources… all these are not yours, but rather they are expenses you push onto your poor people who continue to suffer under you simply because they have failed to throw you off their backs.

It reminds me that Uhuru as his country’s minister of finance (before becoming president) abolished government cars and created a scheme under which senior officials got loans to buy and drive their own cars (Rwanda did pretty much the same thing) .

This was resisted in Tanzania, because it is more profitable for our officials to be driven in huge gas-guzzling government cars, which they can use to carry, say, firewood or charcoal without wear-and-tear concerns.

But then, strangely, under President Benjamin Mkapa and his infrastructure minister John Magufuli, the same bureaucrats thought up a scheme to give away (literally give away) government quarters to their occupiers because, it was said, they were too expensive to maintain!

In a couple of strokes of the pen, whole estates of state property on prime land across the country were given away for a song, and they have now become eyesores in our major cities as the new owners turned them into illicit beer shacks and auto-spare-parts shops.

Evidence abounds, too, that some of the recipients of this extraordinary government largesse were in fact not the recognised occupants of the said houses but the mistresses of those who made these bizarre decisions.

Maybe we should leave such matters to the future historians, who will be poring over records to determine who has been the most corrupt in our endless parade of brigands and blood suckers, but for the time being we are enjoined to find ways of plugging the holes in our budgets by Trump’s decision to plug the holes in his own exchequer.

It is his right to do so, absolutely, as it is our duty to stop the leaks (nay, gushes) from our own coffers. That is why I draw a lot of inspiration from what Uhuru has been telling us: Hey, people, it is his money he is withholding. It is not your money, and you have no right to whine.

So, if you have this heavy burden of keeping thousands of sick people who need life-saving drugs to keep on keeping on, do the done thing and put your money where your mouth is, Get rid of all those SUVs whose purchase price--- before it is even on the road --- is an appreciable percentage of a small ARV factory that could save a few of your people’s lives.

Do away with all those foreign travels in first class/business class and the fat allowances that go with them, and the Rolexes and the blings…. and you will find there is enough money for your schoolchildren’s desks, books and chalk.

In other words, be logical, make sense, behave like you mean what you say, that you care for your people. Simply put, jump off that long gravy train and you will find that Trump does make sense, at least on this one.

For the rest, tackle Trump where you can tackle him, like Gaza; or kick him on South Africa’s land issues, and you will make sense.

Jenerali Ulimwengu is chairman of the board of the Raia Mwema newspaper and an advocate of the High Court in Dar es Salaam.

This year I will score a self-designed gourmande hat-trick that I want to dub the Dar Special.

To kick things off, I celebrated Fat Tuesday with pancakes and mild debauchery in the form of cheesecake. This will be followed by wangling an invite to a Holi party, then the grand finale of Eid ul Fitr.

What a month, hey? And what a city to spend it in. While I was eating my Fat Tuesday pancakes, a colleague teased me about improving the quality and price of the meals that I buy because it is the month of Ramadan, and he can no longer demand his share.

A pretty mundane interaction, right? Except it isn’t.

When I was a kid, I jumped into a public swimming pool with a handful of other kids only to watch everyone else we had found there exit the pool hurriedly. It was somewhere in South Africa before 1994. Lacking the direct experience of my parents who lived through the last of colonialism, I wasn’t prepared.

I thought everywhere was a bit like Dar: A mixed chopped salad, if not a melting pot.

Travel is a great teacher and over time I learned that oases of competent cultural co-existence are not all that common. Dar es Salaam comes with a bit of a story, like all good cities do. “Founded” by Majid Bin Said — if you are comfortable erasing the Africans who already lived there as was the fashion at the time— it has been used as an administrative centre by successive regimes.

I think the arc goes: Locals minding their business, Sultan of Zanzibar, German, British, Tanganyika, finally Tanzania... and maybe one day, the Southern State of the East African Federation and onwards to the United States of Afrika.

Read: Life in Dar es Salaam during Christmas holiday

Up until now, countless people and dozens of cultures have made their way here bringing religious and cultural diversity. This is not a clean and friendly history written by Disney, but somehow over a century and some change we have figured out how to make it work with a bit of grace given to us by Utu.

Considering what it took us to get here — tolerance is a form of sacrifice, of love — it would be unpatriotic of me not to revel in this kaleidoscope of languages and cuisine, music. Hedonism has such an unnecessarily bad rap, you know? In Kiswahili, one of the expressions for actively enjoying life translates into “eating life” — yes, thank you.

Perhaps this is why Professor Doctor Honourable Minister Palamagamba Kabudi told us at excessive length using excessively formal Kiswahili that Singeli music was going to be officially recognised and promoted as a unique Tanzanian cultural product.

It is a brilliant move to recognise and celebrate an art form that is homebrewed out of youth unemployment, world-class drumbeats, disruptive resistance humour, lasciviousness and illegal alcohol.

Definitely not a transparent grab for young urban votes during an election year via the co-optation of a popular genre of music, nope.

In Singeli I hear the offspring of mdundiko and other endangered native genres that have always contrasted with and inspired more “polished” forms like taarab.

After my last sinia of holy day pilau has been devoured, the coloured powder has been washed from my hair and the smell of Catholic incense clears the air in April, it will be my patriotic duty to find a dive bar and lose myself all hot and sweaty in fast songs with louche lyrics. Least I can do for the joie de vivre in the port of peace. See you there?

Elsie Eyakuze is an independent consultant and blogger for The Mikocheni Report; E-mail: [email protected]

South Sudanese soldiers encircled Vice President Riek Machar’s home in the capital, Juba, on Wednesday, and several of his allies were arrested after an armed group loyal to him overran an army base in the country’s north.

Machar, whose political rivalry with President Salva Kiir has previously erupted into full-blown war, warned last month that the dismissal of several of his allies from government positions jeopardised the 2018 peace deal that ended South Sudan’s five-year civil conflict. That war claimed more than 400,000 lives.

While Machar’s struggles have a distinctly South Sudanese post-independence flavour, his predicament is also part of a broader African tradition—where presidents and their deputies often endure relationships defined by suspicion, power struggles, and outright betrayal.

Take Kenya, for instance. Last October, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was impeached, marking the first such removal of a deputy president in the country’s history. His alliance with President William Ruto had disintegrated within months, culminating in his ouster just two years after he took on Kenya’s second-most powerful role.

Ironically, Ruto himself endured a famously toxic relationship with his predecessor, former president Uhuru Kenyatta, in the four years before the 2022 elections that propelled him into power.

Sometimes, these rivalries turn deadly. Burkina Faso’s charismatic revolutionary leader, Thomas Sankara, once trusted Blaise Compaoré as his right-hand man.

They had seized power together in a 1983 coup. But Compaoré’s ambitions poisoned their relationship. On October 15, 1987, he orchestrated Sankara’s assassination and took control for himself.

This remains one of Africa’s most infamous cases of a deputy turning against their president.

Read: South Sudan defends detention of Riek Machar allies

Zimbabwe’s case is equally illustrative. Former president Robert Mugabe, Africa’s longest-serving leader, appointed Joice Mujuru—a respected liberation war veteran—as vice president in 2004, seemingly grooming her as his successor.

But as First Lady Grace Mugabe entered the political arena, she sought to sideline Mujuru. In 2014, Grace accused Mujuru of plotting to assassinate Mugabe. The ensuing smear campaign saw Mujuru unceremoniously ejected from the party and her vice presidency.

Then there is Somalia, where former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who lost re-election in May 2022, maintained a notoriously acrimonious relationship with his deputy, Mahdi Mohamed Guled.

In August 2020, a video surfaced purporting to show the two attempting to strangle each other during a heated press conference.

The story spread like wildfire, and given their well-known enmity, many found it plausible. It later emerged that the video had been doctored—an old political scuffle repackaged for dramatic effect.

For all the dramatic falling-outs, Africa has also had vice presidents who perfected the art of staying out of trouble. Few mastered it as well as Uganda’s Edward Ssekandi, who served as President Yoweri Museveni’s deputy for a decade. If Ssekandi ever disagreed with Museveni, he ensured the public never caught wind of it.

Museveni, who has been known to publicly berate his ministers and prime ministers, never turned his wrath on Ssekandi. Months would pass without Ssekandi making a public appearance, save for the occasional grainy photo on social media of him dancing alone in a dimly lit pub. When his tenure ended, there was no fanfare, no angry statements from his supporters, and no tearful television interviews.

Ssekandi reportedly walked away with a smile—and remains a much-loved figure.

His approach reinforced a crucial African political lesson: to survive as a vice president, one must either master the art of invisibility or wholeheartedly embrace the role of presidential cheerleader, bag-carrier, and flatterer-in-chief.

Of course, sometimes fate intervenes. Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan became president not because of any strategic manoeuvre but because his boss, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, fell gravely ill and died in office in 2010. The lesson? If you’re a VP, luck can be more useful than loyalty.

Then there’s the “sexually transmitted successor” strategy—Kenyan slang for those who ascend by family ties. Equatorial Guinea’s Vice President, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, enjoys a seemingly smooth relationship with his boss—who also happens to be his father, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.

Read:  South Sudan on edge as cracks emerge in ruling coalition

But beyond individual ambitions and betrayals, structural factors also shape these tensions. At independence, many African states adopted highly centralised systems where presidents wielded near-absolute power. Those who tasted such power grew paranoid about potential rivals. The vice presidency, by design, became a precarious position.

Additionally, many VPs are appointed not out of trust but to appease ethnic, regional, or political constituencies. If a vice president has ambitions of their own, they naturally seek to consolidate power, making them a threat to the boss.

Weak institutions also fuel instability. In some countries, the first lady, first son or daughter, or even the head of state’s personal witch doctor wield more influence than a vice president – and sometimes are the de facto presidents.

When power is informal and succession rules are unclear, chaos follows. This is often exacerbated by the lack of presidential term limits.

This instability has led to dismissals, coups, assassinations, and full-scale wars—none more devastating than South Sudan’s December 2013 conflict, triggered when Kiir first sacked Machar as vice president.

For Machar, history appears to be repeating itself. And if Africa’s past is anything to go by, his latest standoff with Kiir will not be the last chapter in the continent’s long, blood-stained book of presidential-vice presidential rivalries.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is a journalist, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. Twitter: @cobbo3

South Sudan’s peace agreement of 2018 may be a victim of failing monitoring mechanisms, a growing consensus among stakeholders shows.

And as regional and international stakeholders scramble to prevent a resurgence of large-scale conflict in South Sudan, the biggest concern now is how to prevent the entire agreement from collapsing.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) this week admitted that the instruments of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), have not worked, especially the security arrangements.

Igad Executive Secretary, Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, observed during the 43rd Extraordinary Summit on Wednesday, that the mechanisms established to oversee security arrangements, such as the Joint Defence Board, have fallen into disuse, and confidence within the Presidency as established by the agreement has been gravely undermined.

"Moreover, progress on critical reforms, including drafting of a new constitution and preparations for elections, remain stalled, casting doubt on the practicality and chances of successfully realising the objectives of the transitional roadmap within the stipulated timelines," said Dr Workneh during the summit held virtually.

South Sudan was unrepresented in the meeting although an official explained that their scheduling requests had clashed with a busy calendar for other leaders in the bloc.

Kenyan President William Ruto and Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni as well as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed were also unable to attend, sending representatives instead. Sudan had earlier suspended cooperation with Igad and had been expected to skip the summit.

The meeting was attended by Djibouti President, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who is the current chair of Igad Heads of State, Somalia president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Ethiopia, Foreign Minister, Dr Gideon Timothewos, Kenya’s National Security Adviser, Dr Monica Juma, Uganda’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs (International Affairs), Henry Oryem Okello.

Read: Igad attempts to cool tensions in South Sudan

Others included; Moussa Faki, the outgoing chairperson of the African Union Commission; Mohamed Abdi Ware, Igad Deputy Executive Secretary, the Igad Special Envoy for South Sudan, Ismail Wais, Joram Biswaro, Special Representative of the chairperson of the African Union Commission in South Sudan and Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General in South Sudan.

The summit is being held virtually and will attempt to address concerns that emerged last when a militia clashed with South Sudanese forces in Upper Nile, the eastern state in South Sudan.

That group was linked to First Vice President Riek Machar and his party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (SPLM-IO). It saw a number of his allies detained in what authorities said was a “conflict with the law.” Machar himself remains under house arrest.

Kiir, Machar and several other representative of armed groups formed a coalition government known as the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) after Igad mediated a peace deal they signed in 2018. The agreement was known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

However, cracks have often emerged among the ranks of the coalition. The TGoNU has been extended three times, the result of failed deadlines set by South Sudan to transition to a formally elected government.

The leaders at the Igad meeting admitted to the growing lack of trust among the Parties to the R-ARCSS, further eroded by recent incidents, and formed a Ministerial Sub-Committee to immediately travel to Juba to assess the situation and initiate an inclusive dialogue among parties.

On Monday, South Sudan President Salva Kiir dismissed three more ministers in the latest Cabinet reshuffle likely to escalate the situation.

In a presidential decree broadcast on TV, Kiir removed Ruben Madol Arol as minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs and replaced him with Wek Mamer Kuol, a former deputy Cabinet minister.

Awut Deng Acuil was relieved of her duties as minister of General Education and Instruction, with educationist Kuyok Abol Kuyok set to assume the role.

Joseph Mum Majak was dismissed as minister of Trade and Industry. Both Deng and Madol have held ministerial positions since 2020, while Majak was appointed Trade minister in July 2024.

Read: South Sudan army surrounds Riek Machar’s house, detains allies

The President did not provide reasons for their dismissals. The latest Cabinet purge came in the wake of armed confrontations in Nasir, including an attack on a United Nations aircraft, which resulted in the deaths of UN personnel and dozens of soldiers on March 7.

The continued conflict in Nasir, Upper Nile State between the South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) and the White Army militias has the potential of spreading to other areas controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposing (SPLM-IO).

Dr Workneh said the developments in Nasir serve as a critical indicator of the nation’s vulnerability to violence, despite the capital Juba maintaining an outward semblance of calm.

“The latest outbreak of violence, compounded by the detention of prominent opposition figures and a widening political divide in the capital Juba, has provoked grave concern across the region,” he said.

The SPLM-IO military and political figures arrested last week included Gabriel Duop Lam, Co-Chair of the Joint Defence Board and Deputy Chief of the SSPDF, as well as senior government officials Puot Kang, Minister of Petroleum, and Stephen Par Kuol, Minister of Peacebuilding (who has since been released).

As things stand, Igad’s Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM) has been unable to enforce the ceasefire. There has been fighting in SPLM-IO controlled areas such as Upper Nile, Abyei, Twic, Western Equatoria and Jonglei.

While eight people out of the 21 people who were arrested together with the Minister of Petroleum, Puot Kang Chol have since been released, the SPLM-IO cadres within the SSPDF remain restless over fear of arrest.

SSPDF spokesperson Major General Lul Ruai Koang announced midweek that several SPLM-IO military personnel that had been integrated into the SSPDF have deserted and gone into hiding. Appeals by the army leadership for their return to work have not been obeyed.

Rajab Mohandis, a civil rights activist and member of the People’s Coalition for Civil Action, said that the appeal is likely to be ignored because the detentions, coupled with the heavy security deployment around Dr Riek Machar’s residence, signal a deliberate targeting of SPLM-IO figures. That, he argued, erodes any semblance of trust in the government’s security apparatus.

Read: Uganda says special forces deploy in Juba amid tensions

“It is naïve to expect officers who have seen their superiors detained under murky circumstances to simply return to work under the assurances of the same institution that facilitated those arrests.

‘The precedent suggests that compliance may not guarantee safety; instead, it may expose them to the same fate as their detained colleagues,” said Mr Mohandis.

South Sudan’s security sector remains deeply fractured along political and ethnic lines, with trust in state institutions low. The National Security Service (NSS) confirmed plans for further arrests, reinforcing the perception that political and military purges are underway.

The biggest challenge is the inability to unify the armed groups in line with the R-ARCSS provisions. The agreement had provided that 83,000 Necessary Unified Forces had to be completed by May 2019, eight months after the signing. Six years down the line, only 53,000 forces have been graduated, but most lack basic arms.

Mr Mohandis says that instead of being unified, the forces continue to fight among themselves, while those from the opposition continue to face arrests and detention, “showing that unification is a lost cause, symbolic and cosmetic”.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud called for the urgent unification of South Sudanese Security Forces as the fundamental pillar in the 2018 peace agreement.

“The delays in implementing this aspect of the agreement have contributed to uncertainty and insecurity,” Mohamud said during the summit of Igad, adding that continued engagement between President Salava Kiir and Dr Machar is vital for national unity and the full implementation of the peace process.

“Peace South Sudan stands at a crossroads. It can either continue down a path of division, conflict, and suffering, or it can choose peace, reconciliation, and national unity,” he said.

The Igad Secretariat recommended six measures to be taken immediately in order to restore peace in South Sudan, top of which was to release detained leaders.

Sudan says it will block entry of all Kenyan goods in the latest protest against Nairobi’s dalliance with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group that has been fighting the army since April 2023.

The decision was rendered in a decree issued by Omar Ahmed Mohamed Ali, the acting minister for Trade and Finance of Sudan, halting all imports from Kenya through all ports, border crossings, airports and entry points.

It came after the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council, for the first time, pronounced itself against the idea of forming a parallel government as declared by the RSF recently.

Sudan said the decision was made to safeguard Sudan’s “supreme interests and strengthen national security” citing Kenya’s alleged hosting of militia leaders and their allies, as well as its support for their meetings and activities—an apparent reference to armed groups opposing the Sudanese government.

The Sudanese market depends on Kenyan products such as tea, coffee, food items, and some industrial goods. In good times, Sudan bought about $37 million of Kenyan tea although that figure dropped in wartime to $18 million in 2024. The move could lead to price increases for certain goods in Sudan, even as Kenyan direct exports to Sudan may be affected.

Read: Kenya urges Sudanese rivals to join RSF coalition

However, Sudan could yet use Kenyan tea via Egypt or Gulf countries, two regions that also buy most of the Kenyan tea via the Mombasa Tea Auction, before blending and reselling. Sudan’s porous borders may also mean the goods barred from entry may yet find a way into Sudan.

However, Sudan was using trade only as the latest tool in the box, having lobbied the international community to help condemn RSF moves.

This week, the 15-member African Union Peace and Security Council, which had taken weeks to comment on the issue, finally agreed on a statement on March 11, warning that any attempts to back a parallel administration could break up Sudan.

The Council issued a press statement in which it rejected and condemned the recent announcement of parallel government by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its affiliated political and social forces in Nairobi.

The RSF has been fighting the Sudanese military government since April 2023, resulting in more than 30,000 deaths and 12 million displaced people.

Sudan itself is suspended from the AU activities, but the AU top organ in charge of peace and security decisions said it still wants to treat Khartoum using the norms of the AU.

“The Council does not recognise the purported parallel government or entity in the Republic of Sudan,” said the press release after the Council’s 1264th meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Rebel movement

The Council called on all AU member states and the international community not to recognise any parallel government or entity seeking to partition and govern any part of the territory of the Republic of Sudan or its institutions.

Read: Kenya wobbles on Sudan peace plan after criticism

It called on all member states and the international community to refrain from recognising and/or providing support to any armed or political group toward the establishment of a parallel government or state entity in the Republic of Sudan.

The RSF and some 18 other allied movements, three weeks ago, signed a charter establishing a government of ‘Peace and Unity' in Nairobi, a development that has put the Kenyan government under international radar for allowing a rebel movement to establish a parallel government in its soil.

Initially, the Kenya government said that Kenya's actions were in line with its broader role in peace negotiations and its commitment to supporting Sudan in finding a resolution to its ongoing political crisis.

Kenyan Prime Cabinet Secretary, also the Foreign Affairs and Diaspora Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi had maintained that it was following through its tradition of facilitating peace agreements in the region, including the 2004 Somalia peace process and the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in Nairobi in 2005.

However, the Kenya government has since gone slow on its support for the parallel government, especially after President William Ruto faced a series of criticisms due to his closeness with the RSF leader Muhamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemedti.’.

The African Union said that it is committed to the preservation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Sudan, while pursuing peaceful resolution of the conflict that began in April 2023, and which has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis causing the displacement of over 12 million Sudanese civilians.

Read: RSF struggles to build coalition unity as Sudan war raises humanitarian spectre

“[The] Council reaffirmed the AU unwavering commitment to continue to collaborate with all Sudanese stakeholders towards finding viable and durable solutions towards silencing the guns permanently in Sudan, based on the AU Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan, which was adopted by the PSC at the Heads of State and Government level on 27th May 2023,” says the press released.

Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed the council’s position, saying that it reflects the principles of Pan-Africanism and respects both the AU Constitutive Act and the UN Charter on the preservation of state sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and the rejection of interference in the internal affairs of states.

“Sudan renews its appreciation for these clear positions that are consistent with international law, which constitute strong support to the Sudanese people and their national institutions in defending their sovereignty, unity, dignity, and independence,” the ministry said in its consequent press release.

Kenya’s tea exports to Sudan have diminished further as conflict rages in the Horn of African country. And as it is, that war is reflecting heavily on Kenya’s sales at the Mombasa Tea Auction.

On Thursday, Sudan’s military government said it will no longer allow Kenyan tea, coffee and other products onto its territory, a protest against Nairobi’s hosting of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group that has been fighting the Sudanese army since 2023.

A dispatch from the Sudanese military government’s Ministry of Trade and Supplies said: “Sudan decides to halt all imports from Kenya via airports, seaports and land borders, effective immediately.”

Tea had been Kenya’s biggest export to Sudan, earning some $37 million in 2022 before the war. However, after violence that figure has been dropping every year. In 2023, the year of war, Kenya sold $29.6 million worth of tea. The figure dropped to $18 million in 2024.

Officials at the Mombasa Tea Auction said this week the Sudan war is a general reflection of lower sales, indicating how security affects businesses in the region.

Despite market challenges, Kenya recorded a total of $1.65 billion earnings from tea representing a nine percent increase from the marketed value of $1.39 billion recorded in 2023, overall.

However, the war in Sudan, economic restrictions in Iran, security issues in Iraq, economic turmoil in Pakistan and a political issue in Chad are continual threats for the sector this year.

In the Kenya Tea Industry Performance Report 2024 by Kenya Tea Board (KTB), shows sales to Sudan dropped the biggest among traditional big markets, as a result of conflicts.

There are fears of more losses this year following diplomatic issues with Kenya. Sudanese authorities did not say for how long the ban would remain in place.

However, diplomatic sources had already told The EastAfrican Kenya no longer backs a parallel government in Sudan and would only encourage Sudanese entities to hold dialogue to achieve political solution.

Read: Kenya urges Sudanese rivals to join RSF coalition

In 2024, Kenya tea was shipped to 96 export destinations, compared to 92 in 2023. Pakistan maintained its position as the leading export destination for Kenya tea, having imported 206.27 million kilos, which accounted for 34.7 percent of the total export volume.

Early this month, Kenya’s tea exporters voiced concern about potential blowback from Sudan. The Sudanese government described Kenya’s hosting of RSF, the group which its forces have been fighting in a civil war since March 2023, as an act of hostility against the Sudanese people, vowing to take all necessary measures to redress the balance including banning Kenya tea.

Sudan is ranked among the top 10 markets for Kenyan tea and the standoff could mean a decline in exports to Sudan, impacting trade.

The report published this week noted Chad as an emerging market for direct imports from Kenya. Prior to the war, landlocked Chad would get its import supplies from Sudan.

“Due to the blockage of trade routes from Sudan, Chad has now shifted to Nigeria and Cameroon as alternative import transshipment routes,” read the report.

The European Union is expected to sanction nine individuals in connection with violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, two EU diplomats said on Friday.

They did not identify the people set to be listed, in keeping with the practice of not revealing such details before the sanctions are officially approved. EU foreign ministers are expected to approve the sanctions in Brussels next Monday.

Rebels of the M23 group have seized east Congo’s two biggest cities since January in an escalation of a long-running conflict rooted in the spillover into Congo of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and the struggle for control of Congo’s vast mineral resources.

Congo is currently considering whether to send representatives to peace talks with the M23 group that Angola plans to host next week, government sources said on Thursday.

Rwanda is accused of backing the Tutsi-led M23 rebels, a charge it denies.

Read: UN peacekeepers deployed in DRC to counter new wave of violence

The EU summoned the ambassador of Rwanda last month, calling on the country to “immediately withdraw” troops from Congolese territory and to “stop supporting the M23 and any other armed group”.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has also said that the 27-nation bloc will review its agreement with Rwanda over critical raw materials due to the country’s links with the M23 rebels. Rwanda denies providing arms and troops to M23 rebels.

Congo’s government has said at least 7,000 people have died in the fighting since January. At least 600,000 people have been displaced by the fighting since November, according to the UN humanitarian affairs office.

So the routine financial crisis of the East African Community is on again, yawn! The cause? The same; members not meeting their obligatory contributions. Only four of the eight — Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda — are on schedule.

What do you do with a sick organ that is debilitating the entire body but does not respond to treatment? You can amputate – and we know amputees who have lived productive lives to a ripe old age.

If the organism cannot live without it, then you replace it by transplanting — we know many people living with donated kidneys or livers for decades.

Artificial organs are increasingly saving lives, while some systems’ functionality including sight can now be restored without a miracle being performed.

Do we need the community? Yes, we do. Can the EAC operate without a physical secretariat or a physical parliament chamber in one of the countries? Of course, it can.

Unless we didn’t learn anything from the Covid-19 lockdown. In which case there are two simple solutions.

The first simple solution is to let each country pay and maintain its people in Arusha – from East African Legislative Assembly members to staff working at EAC.

Host Tanzania can maintain the physical premises but if it is not willing, any of the other countries can bid to host the EAC and earn the prestige plus the business accruing from having so many highly paid expats from seven other countries.

Second simple solution is having the eight presidents go to Beijing on bended knee and ask the Chinese government to host and maintain the EAC secretariat from there.

There is no honour left where states that cannot honour their obligatory dues to an organisation they lobbied hard to join. And I am ready to bet my writing hand that Beijing would accept the request.

It can be dressed as a China-EAC summit which would resolve to shift community organs from Arusha to Beijing to cement the solidarity and speed up development projects.

To save face, they can even call it a temporary arrangement and say its duration is 60 months, well knowing that at the end there will be no reminder that the East Africans’ welcome has expired.

But since we learnt something from the lockdown, we don’t have to open a new EAC secretariat in one of the countries (though I’d have loved for Uganda to host it on one of its beautiful islands in Lake Victoria claiming it is at the centre of the of the EAC, but truthfully to boost our marine tourism).

Nor would we have to accept China’s graciously willing patronage. We just need to get the EAC operating from all the member states, thanks to the era of online interactive tools.

Each country has a ministry for East African Affairs — let each be a centre of operations. In other words, disperse the EAC secretariat to the eight capitals from Dodoma, Juba, Bujumbura, Kinshasa, Kampala, Kigali, Nairobi and Mogadishu.

This arrangement could even serve the real community of about 350 million people as the legislators and experts would be right inside their governments.

Since the problem arose from lack of money, the dispersal of the EAC would go a long way to alleviate it. There will be no need to have so many MPs as each country’s parliament committee responsible for EAC affairs would just second one or two members to EALA, which would be holding all its sessions online. Let the management be done online as the individual government implements and enforce what they have to.

As others have said before, the US cutting aid could be the biggest blessing for awakening African countries. East African countries are already debt-ridden and anyway, even Somalia whose debt was forgiven is not paying its dues.

The leaders will have to re-think the way they spend the meagre tax collections. For a start, let those who have been paying their EAC dues divert the money to buying medicines that the United States was giving them.

Buwembo is a Kampala-based journalist. E-mail: [email protected]

ACT Wazalendo has joined opposition peers in Tanzania in demanding proper reforms on electoral systems to guarantee free and fair General Election in October.

In doing so, the party joined forces with Chadema, which has already committed itself to a fresh crusade for the election to be cancelled or postponed to a later date if reforms are not pushed through in time.

ACT Wazalendo chairman Othman Masoud Othman on Wednesday outlined the party's new hardline stance on reforms at a party convention in Dar es Salaam, where he echoed similar statements made last month by his Chadema counterpart Tundu Lissu.

"We are now officially ditching reconciliation politics in favour of more combative politics, and this is because there has been no change in the massive suppression of democracy being perpetrated by CCM (the ruling party) and the government it controls," said Othman.

Othman, the first Vice-President of Zanzibar would later find himself in diplomatic quagmire in Luanda after Angolan authorities blocked him and several other opposition leaders across the continent from attending an anniversary of Angola’s Unita party.

Back in Tanzania, his party alongside the ruling CCM and Chadema are Tanzania's biggest political organisations. ACT Wazalendo’s stronghold being Zanzibar.

Chadema is more enttenched in the mainland (Union) general election, which like in Zanzibar, will involve the presidency and parliamentary representation.

The two parties have been at the forefront of opposition complaints about the handling of last year's local government elections in mainland Tanzania, which resulted in CCM candidates winning more than 99 percent of the votes, amid claims of fraud that mirrored previous civic and general polls since 2019.

Lissu, who took over the Chadema leadership in January, officially unveiled the party's new 'No reform, No election' agenda on February 12, saying it would be based on mobilising public pressure for tangible reforms to prevent a repeat of the latest civic poll debacle.

Read: Fresh battle as Lissu lays out plan to block elections in Tanzania without law reforms

He outlined a strategy of targeting democracy stakeholders from religious leaders, civil society organisations, other opposition parties, ordinary citizens and the international community via public rallies and direct lobbying to secure their backing for a cancellation or suspension of the October election if the reforms were not made beforehand.

"We are not saying we will boycott the election; what we are saying is that we will be going all out to prevent it from taking place at all unless we see the kind of system reforms needed for a competitive election," Lissu explained.

"There is no point in allowing ourselves to be led to the slaughterhouse yet again by CCM, as was the case in the 2019 and 2024 municipal polls and the 2020 general election. We are prepared to lead a nationwide upsurge of civil disobedience, if that's what it will entail," he added.

Although it suffered as heavily as Chadema in last November's controversial civic poll, ACT Wazalendo has hitherto not been quite as vocal in criticising what happened then. Instead, it has restricted itself to trying to overturn some of the results through court petitions, but with little success.

On Wednesday however, Othman - who is currently Zanzibar's vice president in the semi-autonomous archipelago's coalition government arrangement and is set to run against incumbent Hussein Mwinyi of CCM in the October poll - let loose in an address to party leaders and supporters that was just as strongly-worded as Lissu's.

He said ACT Wazalendo had tried to work closely with other political parties and a task force on political reforms formed by President Samia Suluhu Hassan to prepare a framework for tangible reforms. However, these efforts had failed to bear fruitful results.

"All the recommendations adopted at these forums have been shelved and instead rampant acts of election violations have continued unabated.

“Now the time has come for us to say enough is enough, to change our approach to the problem. It is time for real struggle," he said.

While he fell short of categorically stating that ACT Wazalendo would take up a similar 'No reform, No election' agenda as Chadema , that appeared to be the gist of his message to the party’s faithful.

Read: Tundu Lissu’s tough task after wresting Chadema from Freeman Mbowe

According to Othman, Tanzania's entire electoral system has become compromised "to the extent that citizens can no longer choose their own leaders at any level, from the grassroots to the top echelons."

"This is a dangerous situation that does not conform with our own national constitution, and therefore it can't be condoned any longer," he said.

"We are officially told that Tanzania now has an 'independent- electoral commission in place, but the reality is very different. They should stop trying to deceive us."

The ACT Wazalendo leader was referring to amendments to the country's electoral laws that Tanzania's National Assembly passed in February 2024, under which the National Electoral Commission (NEC) was renamed Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

However, there is consensus among opposition parties that aside from the name change, almost all the key facets of the old laws pertaining to the actual conduct of elections were purposely left as they were.

At this stage, however, the possibility remains a matter of speculation that could be bogged down by time constraints. Under Tanzania's law on political party activities, requests by parties to form such coalitions must be submitted, and approved, by the Registrar of Political Parties at least three months before the general election.

Raila Odinga and his ODM party have finally formalised their working relationship with President William Ruto and the ruling UDA party. This has been expected since the two men announced a “broad-based” government soon after the Gen-Z rebellion of June 25, 2024, in which 61 youth were murdered, hundreds injured, scores abducted and tortured, and dozens “disappeared”.

Without even waiting for all the dead and missing to be properly accounted for, ODM joined the government. The Gen-Z felt betrayed by Odinga, saying that the vacancies in Cabinet had been created by their blood.

The formalisation ceremony at the KICC, and events leading to it, were an eye opener to the philosophy of deceit that drives Kenya’s political class. When ODM switched allegiance to government last year, it was shocking to see its members, who had always advocated policies based loosely on social democratic ideals, become spineless praise singers of Mr Ruto.

They even began to issue veiled threats to those critical of the regime that they had for long dismissed as illegitimate and kleptomaniacal. Incredibly, they also began to exhibit cognitive dysfunction.

For example, asked about alleged Adani fraud in other countries, the newly-minted ODM Energy minister defended the corporation, arguing that the alleged fraud was not committed in Kenya.

Even a diehard regime sycophant would have been a little more circumspect in his answer. More outrageously, ODM MPs joined their UDA counterparts in threatening media freedom. The party with social democratic roots had embraced an authoritarian ideology.

At the formalisation ceremony, a 10-point memorandum of understanding was read out, as if this was revelation of a phenomenal transformative agenda. In fact, the MOU was a rehashing of themes and stipulations that are either in the statutes or the 2010 constitution.

In their speeches, the principals argued that the broad-based government aimed at uniting Kenyans. Where, pray, did they get the notion that Kenyans were disunited?

Read: ‘Woke’ Gen Z a constant irritant to Ruto, Samia and Museveni

The Gen-Z protests demonstrated that Kenyans were united against bad governance, thievery, decadent opulence of the governing class, criminal negligence and wastage.

The architects of the grand deception at KICC attempted to camouflage creation of space at the feeding trough for their acolytes as uniting Kenyans. This hoax might have worked in the past. Now, however, every Kenyan could see through this callous cynicism.

The ceremony at KICC did not mark a new beginning for the country. It demonstrated what we had always known – all political parties share the same philosophy of greed.

To people who had believed that Odinga and ODM represented social democracy, the ceremony at KICC was both disillusioning and enlightening. This experience is well illustrated by a quote from George Orwell’s Animal Farm:

“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

At KICC, it was impossible to tell who represented social democratic values who represented right-wing ideological values.

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political and social commentator.

Rwanda's users of many of the programmes that ran under the USAid are feeling the pinch of the agency’s shutdown with hundreds facing job losses.

President Donald Trump’s administration has announced closure of some 83 percent of programmes USAid ran. And some of those 5,200 contracts were in Rwanda.

Geoffrey Kayonde, the country director of Adra Rwanda, and president of International NGOs forum says the effect was almost immediate when USAid suspended operations in February.

“To many organisations, the effect was immediate, work had to stop, staff had to be laid off straight away because the bulk of staff salaries were direct project costs funded by USAid, none had any financial buffer to sustain staff even for a month,” Mr Kayonde said.

“We are talking of lives that are going to be lost. Some of us have been left with no explanations to the people we are serving on ground.

“We don’t get aid to sit in these offices, we get aid to get it to the people, especially in health, nutrition, education, livelihoods and food security, all these are key but the most important is health.”

In Rwanda, NGO’s such as Care, Hangakazi, CNF Rwanda, Alight, International alert, Pact World, World Vision, Save the Children and others, that had running projects directly funded by USAid across different sectors have been affected.

“The best way forward is to rethink our strategies for humanitarian action, and come up with alternative sources of funding our development.”

The funding freeze, which the order said will be reviewed after 90 days, excluded life-saving humanitarian assistance, including HIV treatment and the necessary medical supplies.

Read: Dead aid? African leaders forced to move on fast in Trump era

Much as this was a reprieve to HIV patients in Rwanda whose lives are sustained by antiretroviral drugs purchased with USAid funds, questions remain about the future of other HIV programmes funded by the US, for example those focused on prevention and awareness.

Nkurunziza Joseph, the country director of Never Again Rwanda, one of the affected local NGO’s said he had been forced to sack staff.

“I have already laid off about 30 percent of my staff, we had to suspend some of the activities under USAid funding to do with citizen participation and governance.

“The impact of this funding freeze is huge, livelihoods of hundreds or thousands of laid off staff are in jeopardy, Rwanda's economy will also suffer, this was funding that entered directly into the economy, and distributed across sectors through projects that are implemented, taxes paid locally, and Rwandans employed,” said Mr Nkurunziza.

The staff at Hingaweze, an agriculture and economic development programme which had a $28.9 USAid funded portfolio of projects, are in panic and suspense.

“We are under a stop work order, all projects have been frozen, we are just waiting for word from USAid..., everyone is in panic, we don’t know what is going on or going to happen,” said Victor Mugarura, the communications in charge at Hingaweze.

A source at International Organization of Migration (IOM) Rwanda, said that the organization had to “discontinue all activities funded by USAID, which funded up to 70 percent of our work.”

“We had Congolese refugees who were undergoing pre-departure process, it was in advanced stages, they had even got air tickets and were expected by their hosts in the US, but everything had to be cancelled, and the refugees went back to their camps, shocked and shattered,” said an employee of IOM who requested to remain anonymous as they were not authorised to speak publicly for the organisation.

In February, Rwanda’s Minister for finance, Yusuf Murangwa said Kigali was closely monitoring the situation in the three-month period to see the gap that may be created.

“It means that once we have identified the gap, where necessary, we will cater for it in planning," Murangwa said to parliament late in February.

"The funding has been important, but, of course, the government is the main player in the development of Rwanda, and there are also many other development partners. We see very many other bilateral partners; we see multilateral partners."

This, however, was before some of Rwanda’s development partners, like Belgium, UK, US, Sweden and others cancelled or reduced their aid, putting pressure on Rwanda to pull back its support for M23 rebels who have captured two major cities on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s territory.

The extent at which Rwanda’s economy will be hurt by the aid cuts is not yet determined, but Rwanda has continued to put a brave face.

Read: Trump decrees leave global security in disarray

In an interview with the BBC, Rwanda’s foreign affairs minister Olivier Nduhungirehe, did admit aid cancellation would hurt in some way. But he said it will push Kigali to find plan B.

“We had Development cooperation with the British government in specific sectors, of course these sectors will be affected, but Rwanda as a government will find alternative solutions.

“In any case we shall continue our path on development, and we will not be swayed by any punitive measures taken by any government on our security.”

While responding to a question about USAID funding suspension, President Paul Kagame told CNN last month that he had seen some good in the aid cuts from Washington.

“President Trump’s unconventional ways of doing things, I completely agree with him on many things.

“I think from being hurt, we might learn some lessons; to do somethings we should be doing. This aid thing I’ve never been a friend of it much as I’ve been a beneficiary of it,” Kagame said.