It is a bag of mixed fortunes for Uganda’s political parties as the country catches early election fever ahead of the 2016 poll cycle.

In what is already shaping into a three-horse race, the three major political parties by seats in parliament have hit the campaign trail early, either combing the countryside or moving to heal internal rifts in preparation for an election that is likely to see President Yoweri Museveni contest for a record fifth time.

The past few months have been a busy period for President Museveni as he traverses the countryside trying to address the key grievances of his grassroots supporters in eastern and central Uganda.

The Democratic Party, coming out of an election that saw it grow its presence in the house by 88 per cent but left it bitterly divided at the grassroots, has also been trying to get its act together with a revival effort that has so far attracted impressive participation.

Largest opposition

Uganda’s largest opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change, however, is going through a trying time as it comes to terms with the loss of six seats in the 2011 elections and a potentially damaging internal rift that has so far defied resolution.

Elections left the party divided between supporters of leader of the opposition in parliament Nathan Nandala Mafabi and former army commander Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu.

READ: Polls over, FDC must now reknit fractured ranks

A committee set up to resolve the impasse recommended fresh polls but this is also is proving contentious.

Several FDC patriarchs refused to give comments, citing a moratorium on discussing the party’s affairs in public.

But Ladislaus Rwakafuzi, a human-rights advocate who chaired a committee set up to chart a way out of the current polarisation, said the party’s NEC will meet next month to try to resolve outstanding differences.

“There is a possibility that the differences will heal well before 2016. I am not pessimistic,” he said.

President Museveni, sensing growing anger over unfulfilled promises, unmitigated corruption, poor public service delivery and creaking infrastructure, has been fighting a twin battle to try and rein in rebels within his party ranks while reaching out to his disgruntled grassroots supporters.

He has addressed the latter group with actions that show he shares their concerns and the government is willing to address them.

He has dedicated the past three months to an anti-poverty campaign in the Luwero Triangle, the region that bore the brunt of the five-year bush war that brought him to power, and the long loyal Busoga region in the east of the country, which has recently demonstrated its discontent at unfulfilled promises by returning opposition candidates in recent by-elections.

In Luwero, Museveni has pledged to turn the former war zone into a model region by deploying soldiers to spearhead key projects at county and sub county level to fight poverty. He has placed the programme under the overall control of his brother, retired Gen Salim Saleh.

The region has wallowed in poverty ever since he came to office, with infrastructure remaining poor and compensation to those who contributed to the war effort melting away in the hands of government officials.

The Luwero Triangle tour follows an earlier sojourn in the Busoga region where, as part of efforts to placate disgruntled youth, Museveni handed over a sack containing Ush250 million ($97,000) to youth groups in the area.

Opposition politicians are interpreting these actions as indicative of an early campaign season.

“When you see Museveni going to Luwero, you know he has started campaigning. He only goes there when he is looking for votes for the next elections,” said Uganda People’s Congress vice president Joseph Bossa.

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Although Museveni faces discontent in Buganda, where a largely urban population is more sensitive to affairs of state and the continuing standoff with monarchists remains a bone of contention, observers say it is unlikely the opposition can leverage these given the issues they are dealing with.

The 2011 polls were good for the Democratic Party after it managed to claw back some lost ground, increasing its presence in parliament from eight to 15 seats.

Those gains were all in Buganda, where one of the seats was previously held by the FDC and the rest by the NRM.

Encouraged by this, DP leaders two months ago launched a DP revival committee that is trying to woo back key members who defected to either stand as independents or formed their own political parties.

Any gains it makes will come at the expense of either the NRM or the FDC, the two parties that have eaten away at what was once considered the party’s home territory.

Despite early progress, there are indications that the election of DP flagbearers for 2016 will remain a polarising factor given a running split in the party’s youth wing.

In contrast, the Forum for Democratic Change, which lost six seats in the last election, must defend itself against a resurgent DP and the NRM.

It must also resolve a potentially divisive search for a flagbearer, after last year’s process that elected Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu as Dr Kizza Besigye’s replacement left the party split down the middle.

The party has for a year been polarised between supporters of new party president Maj Gen Muntu and those of his runner-up and leader of opposition Nathan Nandala Mafabi following a hotly contested party election to replace its charismatic founder president, Dr Besigye, who retired two years ahead of time to “allow the new president to smoothly take over” ahead of the general election. But Dr Besigye does not rule himself out of the 2016 race, creating further uncertainty.

On July 19, the party’s national executive council meeting ended in further divisions, with Mr Nandala’s supporters arguing that Maj Gen Muntu’s election was meant to only complete Besigye’s five-year term.

Divisions

Mr Nandala’s supporters insist on another election next year while their rivals say Maj-Gen Muntu was elected for a five-year term. With the acrimony, little activity by the party is visible.

The DP’s legal adviser, Mukasa Mbidde, agrees that Mr Museveni was in high gear campaigning “but we are also doing our bit. It is the NRM and DP that are campaigning and the rest are sleeping,” he said.

His party has also been hit by divisions following the contested 2010 delegates conference that elected Norbert Mao as the party’s flagbearer, but he insists “We are turning the disunity into a campaign resource.

“We are promoting reconciliation at all levels without demanding apologies from anyone. At the same time, we are rejuvenating our branches right from the grassroots. That is why we have structured our DP revival crusade along nine-man village committees. By the next delegates conference next year, we shall be a competitive force to reckon with,” Mr Mbidde added.

Frank Tumwebaze, the minister for the Presidency, defended Museveni’s tour of the countryside.

“There nothing strange or irregular about an early campaign. If the opposition do nothing to sell themselves to the people, that is their problem. The president has programmes to mobilise the masses for development,” he said.