The jostling among the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) presidential hopefuls to succeed Jakaya Kikwete next year has hit a new low, with dirty tricks becoming more ominous.

The tendency has been for supporters of one postulant maligning and discrediting would-be rivals. That CCM has summoned, cautioned and “banned” a few from premature campaigns has not dampened the enthusiasm of some protagonists.

The dirty tricks took a new turn recently when social media platforms carried pictures of Tanzanian banknotes bearing the picture of presumed front runner Edward Lowassa. The obvious implication, said one commentator, would be that Lowassa’s presidency is a foregone conclusion.

Dirty tricks?

Lowassa was swift in denouncing what he termed a desecration of national symbols. He was quoted as saying: “I think this is a bad joke; we should not be playing around with national symbols. I have nothing to do with this thing.”

It is not known if the prank was pulled off by his supporters or his detractors were trying to cast him in a bad light. A commentator said this was proof of how low Tanzanian politics had sunk.

“If it’s Lowassa’s people, then they have no sense of what is good for their man,” he said. “If it’s his opponents trying to discredit him, then we should brace ourselves for extremely rough times ahead.”

The list of those rumoured to be eyeing Ikulu is growing longer by the week. First are the six summoned by the party structures in Dodoma: Former prime ministers Edward Lowassa and Frederick Sumaye, ministers Stephen Wassira and Bernard Membe, deputy minister January Makamba and ex-minister William Ngeleja.

READ: As the race to succeed Kikwete hots up, Lowassa is the man to watch

Conspicuously missing though was East African Affairs Minister Samuel Sitta, the new Constituent Assembly (CA) chair and former speaker of the national assembly who is thought to be a front runner, prompting a local journalist to remark: “Sitta has been seen in places of worship raising funds and saying things that suggest he is campaigning, and yet he was not called to Dodoma. There must be a reason why he was not called.”

The Dar University law graduate in his early seventies, a long-serving minister and regional governor from the Nyerere days known for his unrelenting ambition and an ability to express himself well, handsomely won the CA vote last week to place himself at the helm of constitution writing.

A Dar University don remarked: “This will propel Sam to higher things; knowing him as we do, he will use it to his advantage.”

Sitta may have stolen a march on his rivals — unless he fails to rein in the riotous grouping that the CA has proved to be. The other presumed aspirants will hope that he falter.

READ: Eyes on Sitta as Kikwete succession race hots up

Frequently mentioned in the intraparty tussle is John Magufuli, the Works minister with a PhD in chemistry who has won accolades for his hands-on approach to road construction — so much so that a Ugandan columnist with The EastAfrican suggested he be naturalised Ugandan so he can do the same for Uganda. With a penchant for populism but lacking in finesse, he is thought to be an unlikely winner.

READ: Our roads are so bad; we haven’t travelled enough to know Magufuli

Harrison Mwakyembe, the Transportation minister, is a lawyer with the same hands-on style. His gung-ho attempts include attempting to make a long-dormant railway line serve Dar.

He was the MP whose “Richmond” report seven years ago helped to fell Lowassa, which makes him an archrival of the former premier. His chances are thought to be modest.

Eyeing the presidency

Frederick Sumaye was among the “Dodoma Six” and is thought to be eyeing the presidency.

His main claim to fame is having served 10 years as PM under president Benjamin Mkapa, though that is seen in some quarters as less indicative of his personal merit than of Mkapa’s preference for light intellectual mettle around him.

He is famous for stating that he had not known why Tanzania was poor until he spent three months on a summer course at Harvard. Considered a lightweight, he will most likely try his luck next year, just like nine years ago.

Stephen Wassira is a rugged, straight-talking hulk of a minister with a reputation that has earned him the sobriquet “Tyson” (though it is unclear if he ever boxed anyone in recent times). Seen as Kikwete’s enforcer in his hard-to-define docket of “policy and co-ordination” in the president’s office, the dogged campaigner is nonetheless an unlikely electoral charmer.

Technology deputy minister January Makamba, the representative of the “Young Turks,” permanently on social media and projecting a profile of modernity and innovativeness, has a CCM pedigree from an ex-SG father. In his early forties, he meets the minimum age criterion but is perceived to be a novice.

A Zanzibari candidate on the other hand, would send signals of a healthy Union and dispel talk of a possible breakup. The choice would be between Zanzibar President Ali Mohammed Shein and Tanzania Defence Minister Hussein Mwinyi, son of Ali Hassan Mwinyi, the island’s last Union president two decades ago.

It has also been suggested — though not documented — that Kikwete would prefer a female successor. That would indicate two former “Unocrats”: Lands Minister Anna Tibaijuka, the ex-UN Habitat head, and Justice Minister Asha Rose Migiro, the immediate former UN deputy secretary-general.

The former is an activist economist with contacts among world leaders and a fighter who would relish the rough and tumble of a barbed campaign while the latter is a brilliant law lecturer with a sweet smile and little appetite for bruising encounters.

Whoever CCM eventually chooses, it must bear in mind that it will have competition from an increasingly assertive opposition and that the fortunes of its candidate will hinge on public acceptability.