Beware, they're waiting to subvert the Constitution

This is it! By the end of next week, we shall know whether or not we finally (finally!) have a new Constitution. Frenetic work has been done by the Committee of Experts, the media and a host of civil society organisations — as well as citizens in their individual capacities — to educate people on the contents of the draft.

As the outcome seems clear (a Yes vote — and with a clear majority, according to the opinion polls) attention is, however, shifting — to the no less onerous tasks that lies ahead: Coming back together again regardless of how we vote. And implementation.

The Society of International Development has provided us all with sobering scenarios to consider as we move into the post-referendum phase. Its report, Searching for a More Perfect Union: Scenarios for Kenya’s constitutional referendum, was released last week.

It sketches the history of the constitutional reform project and identifies those who stand to benefit as well as those who stand to lose should the Proposed Constitution of Kenya be adopted.

The report then outlines, three possible scenarios for us: Hatutaki; Ndoto; and Kula Vumbi.

In the Hatutaki (“We Don’t Want It”) scenario, the No vote prevails... and the story then goes into the consequences.

It is not a good story — being one that tells of divisions and rifts given the unquestionable blow to the authority of the two Principals and the Grand Coalition Government that a No vote would occasion.

The Ndoto (“Dream”) scenario has the Yes vote carrying the day... but the story then continues to spell out the consequences of reality setting in when it comes to managing expectations and the mammoth costs of implementation.

The worst (to me) scenario is the Kula Vumbi (“Bite the Dust”) one — a story in which vested interests, sensing defeat and eventual accountability, use their old tricks to ensure that the polling and tallying are marred by or followed by maximum violence. It is a horrible story — the outcome is essentially a No vote.

At this point, it seems clear that the Ndoto scenario will probably carry the day (knock on wood). And, naturally, the impulse now of those who have worked so hard for this, through several generations, will be to celebrate.

But only for a moment. Because, to realise the potential of a Yes vote, we are all going to have to take a deep breath and dive in yet again. Against the political and economic interests that have always co-opted, perverted or otherwise thwarted change.

And don’t imagine those interests are sleeping on the job — they are always (always!) ahead of us all.

The first battles will no doubt be over the membership of the implementation commission and the parliamentary select committee on implementation.

There will be a huge mass of legislation to be drafted and passed (when our parliament’s rate of passage of legislation is six to eight pieces a year).

Fundamental institutional changes will need to be effected — in the security services, the judiciary, the entire public service. It will be confusing.