Rwandan dissidents abroad could prove the only obstacle to the ruling party Rwanda Patriotic Front’s plans to extend President Paul Kagame’s rule beyond 2017. 

While it is almost certain that President Kagame will bounce back in 2017 following a decision by the ruling party and other political parties in the country to support the drive to amend the Constitution to remove term limits, the only obstacle now remains external opposition led by former allies of the Rwandan leader.

Observers say Rwandan dissidents abroad are gaining ground in and outside the country, with the Rwandan leader last week recognising that the exiled former government officials and military officers are behind the campaign to discredit the Rwandan government. 

With two years remaining to the 2017 presidential polls, the RPF’s plans to reinstall President Kagame could meet stiff resistance from exiled Rwandans who are putting pressure on foreign governments and donors to push Kigali to open up the political space.

With little or no opposition inside the country, RPF and President Kagame are expected to have a smooth run in the 2017 election.

One of the president’s vocal critics Dr David Himbara, who prior to fleeing in 2010 was his principal private secretary, has begun a campaign to block his former boss’s plans to remain in office.

“Rwanda is a totalitarian state that has silenced a nation. But we living outside the country have an obligation to fight tyranny. Kagame needs legitimacy from outside Rwanda,” Mr Himbara said.

He has started a campaign dubbed “Democracy in Rwanda,” in which he urges Rwandans in the diaspora to exert pressure on donors and western governments to stop supporting the Rwandan government.

President Kagame last week described Dr Himbara and other dissidents abroad who are influencing Western countries as “‘fools and criminals’” who have cases to answer back home.

Fighting the government

During a military cadet passing out parade last week, President Kagame cautioned the fresh officers against working with “criminals” who once donned the respected military fatigues but have since turned to fighting the government. 

Only the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda has expressed its opposition to plans to amend the Constitution, filing a petition in the Supreme Court to block attempts to amend article 101 of to remove term limits. 

The case, which will be heard on Wednesday, has suffered a setback after the party failed to secure a lawyer to represent it.