On the face of it, Sudan’s application to join the East Africa Community was rejected on the basis that it failed the geographical proximity rule.

But it has emerged that several other issues informed the decision by East African leaders on Wednesday, some of which could also frustrate its neighbour South Sudan’s bid to join the bloc.

Sources who attended the Heads of State Summit and Council of Ministers meeting in Bujumbura, Burundi last week said some leaders felt Khartoum did not have mature enough institutions such as revenue collection and Customs authorities and that it might take too long to develop them, making it incompatible with EAC countries who already have strong organs and infrastructure in place.

South Sudan, sources said, could also fail the institutions test when its application comes up for discussion next year.

“Geographical proximity is not a guarantee of automatic entry into the EAC,” said David Nalo, Permanent Secretary at Kenya’s EAC Ministry. 

“Juba still has a long way to go in fixing proper economic, social and political institutions such as capital markets, the central bank, revenue and Customs authorities.”

 Analysts argued that countries with faltering institutions would pose a challenge to the other nations as they could delay the establishment of a monetary union or a political federation, which require proper and near uniform national bodies.

Following the separation of Juba and Khartoum, the former has been making advances in establishing governing structures, adopting foundational legislation and initiating key reforms such as standardising a primary school curriculum and rationalising a bloated public sector payroll. But the government is faced with innumerable demands.

Khartoum’s faltering democratic credentials meanwhile have recently raised questions about the strength of its governance institutions.

Sources said that officials raised concerns that Sudan was not honest in its application as it had bid to join just days before the July 9 official separation with South Sudan, having filed on June 12, 2011.

The feeling was that this was a bid to get around the geographical proximity rule under the EAC Treaty, which only allows into the bloc a country that neighbours a partner state. Sudan currently does not share a border with any of the EAC states –– Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda.

Sudan’s bid was also faced with questions over its human-rights record, with President Omar al-Bashir facing accusations of crimes against humanity in the Darfur region.

“When it comes to Sudan and South Sudan, Kenya is facing a big dilemma as it has been the link between the two as they sought peace,” said Macharia Munene, a professor of international relations at the United States International University in Nairobi.

“As things stand now, Juba may join the EAC before Khartoum; either way, Kenya will have achieved its geopolitical strategy of boosting its influence in the region and tapping into the resources in the two nations,” said Prof Munene, arguing that, that was the main reason Kenya was supporting the entry of the two nations.

Tanzania and Uganda were opposed to Sudan’s bid to join EAC on the basis of lack of proximity and the country’s human-rights record.

Diplomatic hurdles

The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant of arrest against President Bashir, a decision that last week dragged Kenya into the muddy waters of the Hague process.

The High Court in Nairobi issued an order in favour of the Kenya chapter of the International Commission of Jurists, directing that Bashir be arrested if he sets foot on Kenyan soil.

Regional policymakers see Khartoum’s easiest route as being to wait for Juba to be admitted into the bloc. South Sudan also sent in its application on November 11 but the Heads of State Summit directed the Council of Ministers to verify this bid on the basis of the criteria for admission of foreign countries and submit recommendations to the Summit in its next meeting next year.

“When Juba joins, Khartoum can put up a case for geographical proximity,” said Mr Nalo.

But analysts said Sudan can still join the regional economic grouping should its eastern neighbour Ethiopia –– said to be seeking observer status in the East African Community –– secure this approval.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is the other country that has applied for observer status in the EAC.

The push by Juba and Khartoum to join the EAC has analysts and policymakers studying the economic implications of the two countries joining the regional bloc, as they bring with them huge investment opportunities and resources such as oil.

Sudan has large areas of arable land, as well as gold and cotton.