The deadline for Ugandan troops to leave South Sudan is less than two weeks away but Kampala is yet to give the order for its forces to start withdrawing as demanded by the peace agreement signed in August.

The agreement, which President Salva Kiir signed on August 26 — a week after his rival and former deputy Dr Riek Machar had appended his signature — gave all foreign armies and militia 45 days to withdraw.

Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces deployed between 2,500 and 3,000 troops in South Sudan following the outbreak of war mid December 2013, to fight alongside forces loyal to President Salvar Kiir.

Under the agreement, an Inter-Governmental Authority on Development force from Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda was supposed to replace foreign armies, but it was always difficult to have replacement boots on the ground, Kampala argues.

“Internationally mediated security arrangements are always fluid. We are committed to pulling out as a unilateral arrangement, but the army never leaves a vacuum. If we withdrew now, where is the Igad force that is going to deploy in our place? That’s why you are getting mixed signals [on our withdrawal]” deputy government spokesman Col Shaban Bantariza said. 

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'No order for withdrawal'

Earlier, UPDF spokesman Lt Col Paddy Ankunda also said that the army leadership was aware of the impending deadline but the troops were to stay put because no order for withdrawal had been given.

The peace deal, signed in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa ;eft President Kiir in a weaker position — by demanding the pull-out of UPDF, the main foreign force backing him, as well as demilitarisation of a 25-km radius around the capital Juba and handing Riek Machar a more central role in government.

President Kiir expressed “serious reservations” about some of the clauses in the peace deal and how the mediation was conducted, although it ensured that the conflict ended.

Col Bantariza said the UPDF will follow a phased withdrawal.

“The military, the world over never jumps out; its withdrawal from operations is always phased out sector by sector,” he said.

Indeed, such a phased pull-out, considering the few days remaining before the deadline, presents a logistical nightmare for UPDF, which has to move personnel as well as heavy equipment, some under the cover darkness, for security reasons.

Yet, with a peace agreement in place, the switch of position by Kampala that its troops will stay runs counter to claims that UPDF’s deployment in South Sudan has achieved its objectives — to stop genocide, secure South Sudan’s key installations and the trade routes between Uganda and Juba.

Just weeks after deployment, the leader of opposition in parliament Wafula Oguttu took the government to task over the involvement of the country’s army in a conflict outside Uganda’s borders without parliamentary approval.

Mr Oguttu also demanded explanations about the source of funding to maintain soldiers and equipment in the conflict, and argued that this would come at a heavy price for Uganda through “senseless loss of human life.”

Nearly two years on, the government has yet to give specifics of how many UPDF soldiers have been killed in the conflict, although officials agree that maintaining about 3,000 soldiers and equipment in South Sudan is a huge cost to the struggling Uganda economy.

This argument is premised on the fact that Uganda’s economy has fallen on hard times since the shooting started in Juba; the shilling has depreciated nearly 30 per cent, as Uganda’s taxman was collecting $30 million per month from Uganda’s trade activities with South Sudan.

Bank of Uganda 2012 data shows that by the time the conflict broke out, remittances from South Sudan were worth $210 million — second only to those from the UK; hence, it was in Uganda’s economic interests to deploy in South Sudan.

In Kampala, critics also argue that the continued presence of the UPDF in South Sudan and government officials’ change of goalposts means there is more than meets the eye. There has not been any official briefing on what UPDF has achieved in South Sudan, its exit strategy and the losses inflicted on the army in terms of soldiers and equipment.

Pulling out would mean disclosing the numbers of soldiers killed in a war that was not approved by parliament, and this would attract public outrage, security analyst and the former Director of External Security Organisation David Pulkol argues.

Hence, Uganda is buying time because even with a phased withdrawal, it will not be possible to pull out all sectors of Uganda’s troops, Mr Pulkol told The EastAfrican.

Although the main base of UPDF is near Juba Airport, there are troops trapped in places like Bor and Nisitu.

“Of course it makes sense that they don’t leave a vacuum, but government is also buying time to negotiate passage for its troops. That’s why president Museveni has been to Khartoum. The UPDF is besieged in some places, making it difficult to withdraw even by air because helicopter gunships can be brought down,” he said.