Former Tanzanian prime minister Edward Lowassa appears to have weathered a seven-year political storm, as several recent opinion polls put him in the lead out of 37 presidential contenders in the October general elections.

Three polling firms show the former premier is the favourite to clinch the Chama cha Mapinduzi nomination, and that he continues to hold a vast lead over his rivals in the opposition

Mr Lowassa has held a double-digit lead over his rivals since last year, with the latest poll by the Dar es Salaam-based Samunge Social Sciences Research Centre (SSSCR) giving him 20.7 per cent approval nationwide.

His closest rival, Wilbrod Slaa of the opposition party Chama cha Democrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema), comes second with 11.7 per cent support.

The polls suggest that the controversial Richmond scandal, which saw him resign as prime minister in 2008, may not have dented his competitiveness as a potential successor to President Jakaya Kikwete. Within CCM itself, the polls show Mr Lowassa ahead of all his competitors, who are trailing him in single digits two weeks before the party unveils its flagbearer.

John Magufuli, the Minister for Works, comes in second with 7.6 per cent, followed by Foreign Minister Bernard Membe at 7 per cent, then January Makamba at 4.8 per cent and the current Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda at 2.4 per cent.

Mr Pinda was once seen as a serious contender for the presidency until early this year when his political star came tumbling down. His rating went down from 12 per cent to 2.4 per cent after he was implicated in the $180 million Tegeta Escrow scandal.

Mr Lowassa resigned in 2008 over the Richmond energy corruption saga, which cost taxpayers over $100 million. Even though his alleged involvement in the scandal remains murky, his handlers are aware that it could harm his chances of winning the presidency.

“However, we found that most people don’t actually know what happened in the Richmond scandal. It is not gaining as much traction with the average voter as his rivals would have liked,” said George Nyaronga, a researcher with SSSCR.

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Mr Lowassa’s campaign has sought to portray him as a bold and decisive leader, which pollsters say is what the majority of Tanzanians want in their next president.

CCM remains the most popular party in the country and it is expected to sweep local and parliamentary seats across the country.

A poll released late last year by Twaweza — an organisation that looks to make governments more open and responsive in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda — found that 51 per cent of respondents are likely to vote for the party’s presidential candidate, 46 per cent for its parliamentary candidates and 47 per cent for its municipal candidates.

Only 23 per cent of those surveyed said they would vote for a Chadema presidential candidate, 24 per cent for its parliamentary candidates and 23 per cent for its municipal candidates.

The other major opposition party, Civic United Front (CUF), fared badly in the poll, with only four per cent of respondents saying they would vote for the party’s candidates in the general elections.

About 19 per cent of the respondents said they will not vote for a party but an individual, which could see their vote fundamentally altering the political landscape.

CCM is faced with the dilemma of either handing the nomination to Mr Lowassa, who is considered a loyal and powerful member of the party, but has graft allegations hanging over his head, or deny him the ticket to the disaffection of the majority of party supporters rallying behind him.

His competitors within the ruling party are trying to use the scandal to hold him back, and the party will be thinking of Richmond when considering Mr Lowassa as their candidate. If he is selected, the opposition will still use it against him and to a larger extent the party.

“Most of the undecided voters, especially from CCM, are waiting to see the backlash or lack thereof, in the event Mr Lowassa is not nominated by his party,” said Gulayi Yabatinga, the head of Positive Thinkers Tanzania (PTT), which conducted a poll in March.

CCM elders — made up of former presidents and prime ministers — met last week on Thursday in what is seen as the first step in the operationalisation of the party’s succession machinery.

The elders will sift through the 38 candidates and propose five names to the 378-member national executive council (NEC), who will then forward three names to the more than 3,000-strong national congress, which will elect the party’s presidential flagbearer by July 12.

The role of the elders cannot be underestimated as while they cannot formally vote, they have the respect of the party and are seen to understand the responsibility and sensitivity of the presidency. But more importantly, they have worked with most of the candidates and they know them quite well.

Mr Lowassa had sought a CCM nomination in 1995 but lost out at the nomination stage after former president Julius Nyerere backed Benjamin Mkapa to succeed Al Hassan Mwinyi.

“At the moment there is no frontrunner, the rules and system of the ruling party are set in a way that you cannot determine a frontrunner at this stage. All the hype that we see now is bluffing,” Aikande Kwayu, a University of Oxford social scientist, told The EastAfrican.

According to Dr Kwayu, the frontrunner in CCM politics can only be known or predicted after the top five candidates are selected based on the consensus of the 34 central committee members.