Lake Turkana could be the scene of a major conflict in the near future, environmentalists are warning.

Ten years ago, then Egyptian foreign minister Boutros Boutros-Ghali said the next major wars in Africa would be over water.

Now water diplomacy is starting to take centre-stage in African and global affairs.

Experts are tracing fights over water rights and shortage as the root cause of the many civil conflicts in the continent over the past three decades.

As Kenya and Ethiopia enter a series of deals on electricity generation and supply, the livelihood of 200,000 people is threatened.

These people have for centuries depended on a lake that is fed by rivers currently threatened by a giant hydroelectric power project in Ethiopia.

The Gilgel Gibe III hydroelectric power dam, which at a cost of $1.7 billion will be one of the largest in Africa, is already causing concern among environmentalists and local communities.

Opponents say it will destroy the livelihood of thousands of people.

Situated on the Omo River Valley, the dam is expected to have a mammoth reservoir that will hold thousands of cubic metres of water.

Environmentalists and locals believe this will interfere with the flow of water into Lake Turkana.

Other flashpoints that Unep and UNDP have cited include the Nile, Niger, Volta and Zambezi basins.

The UNDP says population growth and economic development will lead to nearly one in two people in Africa living in countries facing water scarcity and water stress in 25 years.

Water scarcity is defined as less than 1,000 cubic metres of water available per person per year, while water stress means less than 1,500 cubic metres per year.

By 2025, according to UNDP, 12 more African countries will join the 13 that already suffer from water stress or water scarcity.

“Water disputes in Africa revolve around one or more of three issues: quantity, quality and timing. These play out differently on various scales, whether internationally, intra-nationally, regionally or indirectly,” says a Unep-funded report titled: “Hydropolitical vulnerability and resilience along international waters in Africa”.

The Nile Basin, which encompasses nine countries — including Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania — has been mentioned as a potential source of conflict because of the high number of people who depend on it.

For example, if the combined population of just three countries — Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan — through which the Nile runs, rises as predicted from 150 million today to 340 million in 2050, there will be intense competition for limited water resources.

This could easily spill over into war. Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea are among the Nile Basin states that are most vulnerable to climatic variations.

The amount of water left when the Nile reaches the sea has also been drastically declining, proof that the uptake along its course is rising.

In case water levels reduce drastically, Egypt, being at the lower end of the river, will be most affected.

Meanwhile, the African Resources Working Group says there are also disagreements on the use of the Okavango-Makgadikgadi Basin in Southern Africa.

Botswana’s need to sustain the delta and its lucrative ecotourism is in conflict with Namibia’s plans to pipe water from the Okavango river to supply its capital, Windhoek.

Also, dams and water transfers in the South African area of the Incomati River basin have reduced freshwater flows and increased salt levels in Mozambique’s Incomati estuary.

This has altered the estuary’s ecosystem and led to the disappearance of salt-intolerant plants and animals.