The bloom is off the rose with a vengeance — Kenya’s once thriving flower industry shrank this year by 33 per cent. This was after experiencing luxuriant growth for over two decades.

“For the first time in close to 20 years, the flower industry has registered negative growth, with the period up to September 2009 registering 80,000 tonnes, down from 120,000 tonnes the previous year,” said Kenya Flower Council chief executive officer Jane Ngige.

She added, “We project that by December, the sector will be down by almost 40 per cent.”

Expectations that the high season would bring better returns are fading, owing to the twin blights of the global financial crisis and the scorching sun.

The Kenya Flower Council reported at its 2009 annual general meeting in Nairobi last week that it is not business as usual.

For almost two decades now, the sector has boasted an annual positive growth rate of 15 per cent-plus.

The high season begins in September and ends in early July, but the falling waters of Lake Naivasha, the wilting demand by external markets and the renewed carbon miles debate in the UK have conspired to spread gloom.

There is little sign of an immediate answer to the multiple challenges facing the industry. 

Reports indicate that demand for flowers dropped by 30 per cent in the first half of the year, compared with the same period in 2008, as consumers in rich countries cut down cuts due to layoffs and an employment freeze in Europe, Kenya’s principal market.

“With less money to spend, people are staying indoors for longer, reducing the demand for flowers,” said Fresh Produce Exporters of Kenya (Fpeak) chairman Tiku Shah. Growers have confirmed that in the coming months, they will have to prune workers off the payroll.

“Workers will be the first casualty,” said an exporter who did not want to be named for fear of spreading panic in the labour-sensitive sector.

The growers, however, are in a precarious situation, with trade unions signalling that they will not accept layoffs.

Although no official report has come in to that effect, the information on the ground is that workers are being quietly sent home with promises that they will be recalled when things get better.

Joshua Oyuga, national treasurer of the Kenya Plantation and Agricultural Workers Union, says both big and small flower farms have informed the union of their intention to lay off workers.

The details are scant, but The EastAfrican learnt that a number of flower farms have scaled down production and switched to vegetables in greenhouses to take advantage of the better prices for quality produce in Europe.

“This is a better option than closing down,” said Fpeak chief executive officer Stephen Mbithi.

Indeed, the Horticultural Crops Development Authority reports that while flower prices have dipped, those for fruits and vegetables have risen due to scarcity as the dry weather prevails.

The price of vegetables has more than doubled, drawing flower exporters into the business, until now the preserve of small-scale producers.

The flip side is that this trend could knock out of business some of the hundreds of thousands of smallholders, reversing the gains made by the sector over the years in creating rural employment.

Mrs Ngige said that in the country’s main growing area of Naivasha, flower farms have agreed to scale down production by almost 25 per cent as they go slow on irrigation to save the drying lake.

The Naivasha Municipal Council and the Water Resources Management Authority have installed metres and introduced a water rationing programme to control extraction. Otherwise, the lake could dry up for the third — and perhaps last — time.

Meanwhile, the decision by the world’s second largest producer of flowers, Columbia, to dump its produce in Europe following the collapse of the US market is dealing a major blow to Kenya’s flower sector.

The first sign that the flower industry was headed for trouble this year was the low-key celebration of Valentine’s Day. It was billed as the worst in history for flower exports.

“We had a terrible February 14, with earnings dipping 30 per cent,” said  Fresh Produce Exporters Association of Kenya CEO Stephen Mbithi.

Dr Mbithi added that there was a slight improvement in May because of Mother’s Day, the second most important day in the flower sales calendar.

But that was the only good news of the year, as the sector went into the cold season, when growth is subdued.

Lobbyists now want the government to implement reforms to save 500,000 jobs in the horticultural sector.