As tribal tension grips Uganda’s oil-rich region of Bunyoro, there are fresh fears that the area could be swamped by a wave of instability, bringing on the very resource curse that the government has worked hard to avoid since discovering the deposits a few years ago.

These fears are not far-fetched. The fact that Bunyoro, until now one of the most stable areas of the country, is suddenly enveloped in tension, immediately raises questions of what instability in Uganda’s oil-rich region means for production, with the start of drilling now in sight. This means oil revenues will soon start flowing in — further stoking tensions over its sharing.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development came up with a National Oil and Gas Policy in 2007 to cushion the country from going the way of Nigeria’s Niger Delta and other countries that have struck oil but failed to manage the resource.

There are genuine questions now whether Bunyoro can survive the current quarrel between the Banyoro and Bakiga “immigrants” and remain stable, or whether Uganda could fall prey to the curse of oil.

“Who says Bunyoro has ever been stable? This situation has been hibernating and now that it is out in the open, it is potentially explosive unless resolved. Of course, oil production will be affected,” said Stephen Biraahwa Mukitale, MP for Buliisa County. Buliisa is one of four districts that along with Masindi, Hoima and Kibaale form the oil-rich Bunyoro Kingdom.

The oil in Bunyoro and in Amuru district of northern Uganda gives the country the capacity to produce up to 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day for 25 years, according to studies.

But the situation in Bunyoro is increasingly fragile. For weeks now, Bunyoro has adopted an unyielding stand against the “immigrant” communities settled in the Kingdom, mainly the Bakiga, who are accused of being politically domineering, or at least showing a tendency to become so, according to Internal Affairs State Minister Matia Kasaija, who himself hails from the Bunyoro Kingdom.

It all started when the Daily Monitor published a controversial letter, penned by President Yoweri Museveni, directing the “ring-fencing” of certain political offices in Bunyoro and blocking immigrant Bakiga from contesting political offices for 20 years.

The thrust of President Museveni’s letter is to correct the “historical imbalances” Bunyoro has suffered since 1893 when the British colonialists overran the kingdom, depopulated it and deported its king, the Kabalega.

The colonialists also gave chunks of land to Baganda collaborators who had helped in crushing Kabalega’s rebellion.

But few of the Baganda who benefited from this land redistribution ever settled in Bunyoro, creating a class of “absentee landlords,” while other immigrants began to settle in a depopulated Bunyoro from the 1930s onwards, resulting in changes in the patterns of land ownership, settlement, population and now the politics of Bunyoro.

But Buyaga County legislator Barnabas Tinkamanyire, an immigrant himself, says the Bakiga are not ready to cede ground, a situation that may foment instability in the oil fields.

The government however maintains that these are not grounds enough to fear the worst. In a telephone interview with The EastAfrican, Mr Kasaija said last week that the clashes in Bunyoro are little more than an exaggerated war of words, which cannot destabilise oil production.

“What instability? There is and there will be a war of words, yes, but not a war of shooting,” he said.