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Tension, failed hopes as South Sudan marks one year

Friday July 06 2012

More failures than successes—this is the verdict of the first year of South Sudan’s independence.

July 9 marks the first anniversary of independence, but questions on the country’s stability and economic prospects are dampening the party mood as the separation from its northern neighbour continues to fuel tensions.

The general assessment is that Africa’s youngest country has few achievements in the past 12 months, while the challenges and failures are overwhelming.

But South Sudan watchers say that it is too early to judge the new country harshly, taking into account that the region has been virtually at war for almost 50 years.

South Sudan citizens are generally upbeat that at least they have achieved the independence that they pursued for almost half a century.

Among the key achievements is that a full-scale war that was looming over the rebellion in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile appears to have been averted.

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The two countries, security analysts said, were cautious any war would be very costly, as was the case during two decades of civil war.

Political inclusiveness is one area South Sudan has shown progress and which is critical to the stability of the country. But in country that is overwhelmingly dominated by SPLM, it is still not clear whether the political dialogue will hold.

A broad-based constitutional review process is in place with the country having established the National Constitutional Review Committee that provides forum for all political parties to participate in the review.

The integration of militias that were previously outside the Sudanese peace deal into the security forces has gone well despite the fact that some militia groups are still resisting integration.

Ms. Hilde F. Johnson, Special Representative to the UN Secretary-General in South Sudan, says that the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) UNMISS has been supporting state building of the new state.

UNMISS has had three areas of intervention. One is to bolster democracy and political pluralism advocating consultative approach. Second, the mission has supported police reforms that are under way.

Third, the mission has been training army officers on international law and respect for human rights. But the challenges facing the new nation outweigh the few achievements.

Between 70 to 80 per cent of the South Sudan security forces cannot read and write and there the issue of respecting human rights is a big challenge to them. Ms Johnson says that human rights violations are a concern of the mission, having recorded 43 cases of serious violations.

The tension between South Sudan and Sudan has slowed down negotiations on post-referendum issues and contributing to the instability of the new country.

In its resolution 2046, the UN Security Council set a deadline of August 2 to resolve outstanding issues between the two countries including oil, borders, returnees and the disputed territory of Abyei. It also explicitly called for the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement - North (SPLM-N) and the Government of Sudan to reach a negotiated settlement on security in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and enable humanitarian access.

The biggest challenge is that South Sudan is facing the prospects of the collapse of the economy following the stopping of oil production that provides 98 per cent of the country’s income.

Since South Sudan shut down oil production in January, the country has experienced 80 per cent inflation, forcing a significant budget cuts in crucial areas such as education and health.

Inflation is higher in the border areas because of border closures, meaning residents can no longer cross over to find food or engage in trade. In the absence of oil revenue, South Sudan has been trying to diversify the economy. The country has a big potential in agriculture but this is unlikely to be fully exploited in the short term.

In March, the World Bank released a report saying that the South Sudan economy is facing a bleak future and could collapse between six to eighteen months is the country does not resume oil production.

Ms Johnson say that the economy can still be salvaged with additional funding from external sources and the resumption of oil production. “If any of the two does not materialise, then the economy is under dire threat of collapse. This fact has been acknowledged by the government and the government has promised not to print money and also not top deplete foreign exchange,” she said.

The other big challenge is corruption. A UN report in 2010 reported that $4 billion in government accounts has not been accounted for.

Between 2005 and 2006, there was no substantive minister for finance; institutions and commercial banks were weak. President Salva Kiir recently launched a comprehensive strategy in the war against corruption. One of the measures is weeding out ghost workers in the civil service to cut down on expenditure.

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