Tanzania’s newish President John Magufuli continues to cause excitement with his frugal and anti-corruption ways. The fears that he would ban Christmas too, after scrapping Christmas cards at state expense and Independence Day feasting, have not materialised. Santa must be breathing a little easier.

More seriously, there is now a vigorous debate about what Magufuli means. Some wonder if his Scrooge-like ways can last. Others question whether he can make a big dent in corruption in the country because he is seen as a lone crusader, who still needs to rally institutional support behind his fight.

Some issues are not being debated, though. For example, ordinarily, Magufuli’s actions are the kind that would be applauded if he were the head of a listed firm. Shareholders would feel safe having their money in a company run by him, knowing a hefty dividend was more likely to be delivered.

In African politics, though, he is a rarity — which is why he looks like a creature from another planet who got lost and landed in Tanzania.

You can count the countries in Africa with Magufuli-like leaders on your fingertips — Rwanda, Senegal, Mauritania, Mauritius, Cape Verde, Nigeria, Botswana, Namibia — then you start scratching the bottom of the barrel for more worthy candidates.

Half-exception

On the bigger and longer-term question of whether Magufuli can succeed, the history of fighting corruption in Africa gives some pointers.

First, there is no African country whose president is perceived to be corrupt or is actually tainted, that has strong anti-corruption institutions.

The sole half-exception is South Africa, where there are a dwindling band of judges and a fearless anti-corruption public prosecutor, Thuli Madonsela. But they are seen as the Last of the Mohicans, left over from the idealistic post-apartheid era of Nelson Mandela and his successor Thabo Mbeki.

It is also possible to have a president who is personally seen to be honest, like Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta, but is hobbled by a government and a bureaucracy that is riddled with corruption.

And the Rwanda case is all about President Paul Kagame, around whose leadership an anti-corruption tradition and institutions have grown.

Uganda is a case where at one time both President Yoweri Museveni, at least rhetorically, was committed to fighting corruption, and feisty anti-corruption institutions began to emerge.

Once State House became ambivalent, and Museveni took to saying it was better to have a crook in government stealing taxpayer’s money, than disgruntled in the bush waging war against the people, the battle was lost and anti-corruption bodies have since been on the back foot.

These examples tell us that while an honest leader can survive behind the walls of the presidential palace in a country whose state institutions are infested with corruption, the anti-graft institutions can never withstand a corrupt leader for too long.

On balance then, Magufuli would seem to have a prayer in Tanzania. Like in battle, fighting corruption requires the mad horseman who will ride out first in the face of the enemy’s arrows, or the soldier who will stick his head out first from the trenches and risk having it shot off.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is editor of Mail & Guardian Africa (mgafrica.com). Twitter@cobbo3