The Democratic Republic of Congo’s electoral body recently announced presidential elections would be delayed until 2018, further angering the opposition, which has been demanding that President Joseph Kabila step down this year.

They have accused Kabila, in power since 2001 and whose current mandate ends in December, of delaying the vote to remain in office.

At least 50 people have been killed by security forces during protests over the delays.

There seems to be optimism in Africa’s power capitals that things will blow over in DRC and all will be well.

The UN envoy to DR Congo, Maman Sidikou, would argue that view is a triumph of hope over experience. A few days ago, he told the UN Security Council that there was an “extreme risk” to the stability of the country and that the crisis could spark large-scale violence.

Then on Tuesday, a UN official stated that its peacekeeping mission in DRC, known as Monusco, planned to move more troops and police to Kinshasa in preparation.
There is a real reason to keep awake over DRC. Africa’s biggest copper producer, the country has never had a peaceful transition of power.

Africa’s second largest country, with its underdeveloped infrastructure, and years of plunder and misrule especially under Mobutu Sese Seko, has always been difficult to govern from the capital Kinshasa.

It has also historically been plagued by secession and militant forces in its mineral-rich regions – where opposition to President Joseph Kabila’s perceived power grab is most intense.

After the overthrow of Mobutu in 1997 by an alliance of countries led by Rwanda, but also Uganda, Angola and Zimbabwe among others, the coalition fractured with the assassination in January 2001 of the inept president Laurent Kabila.

Rwanda and Uganda backed rival rebel groups in the east, while Angola and Zimbabwe fought on the side of the government in Kinshasa, now under his son Joseph.

By 2008, the resulting so-called Africa’s World War had caused, by some accounts, 5.4 million deaths, mainly through disease and starvation, making it the deadliest conflict worldwide since World War II.

The DRC has held together partly because of the much-maligned Monusco, the largest and most expensive peacekeeping mission in the world, and Rwanda and Uganda’s ceasing support for rebels in the face of international pressure and their own changing geopolitical interests.

The last main rebel threat to Kinshasa in the east, the M23 rebels, were defeated when the UN added the largely Tanzanian and South African-manned force intervention brigade (FIB) to Monusco with an aggressive combat mandate.

But a breakdown in DRC over Kabila’s power play this time around could end differently.

For one, with President John Magufuli coming to power in Tanzania, and the improvement of relations with Rwanda, it’s unlikely the country would still look to play the same aggressive role against rebels who are perceived to be backed by Rwanda.

But also, Angola and Zimbabwe today — and their ageing leaders facing transition — are a pale shadow of the countries that helped Kinshasa force a draw in the Congo war. The real risk of a major regime crisis in Kinshasa is therefore higher than at any point in the past 10 years.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher of data visualiser Africapaedia and Rogue Chiefs. Twitter@cobbo3