Since President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda sacked Amama Mbabazi as prime minister, Ugandans have not stopped talking about it. It is not as if it was surprising, if one were to discount the timing, which nobody could have predicted.

It is several months since the media started preparing the public for it by repeatedly announcing that the two men, said by some to be close friends while others say they aren’t, were embroiled in conflict.

Fuelling the tensions between them, common lore had it, were a number of issues, among them, the way the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, was being led by Mbabazi, who also happens to be its Secretary-General, and his alleged ambitions to succeed his boss.

Significant numbers of NRM members have for some time complained about their party being adrift, seen in such occurrences as its failure to pay rent for its party headquarters, and the conflicts and rebellions, some linked to botched internal elections, that have wreaked havoc on unity and cohesion.

Anyone can figure out why this would have riled the party chairman if it turned out that it was entirely Mbabazi’s fault as claimed, falsely in my view, by some members.

But what on earth, someone may wonder, is wrong with having presidential ambitions? Mr Mbabazi himself has been heard to insist that there is nothing wrong with it.

Well, under normal circumstances, this is absolutely correct. In this particular instance, however, rumours have long been circulating that he has been actively plotting and manoeuvring to succeed his boss, not after the latter bows out voluntarily, but to force him out against his will.

This, apparently, would happen via an internal election that would see Museveni soundly defeated, courtesy of pro-Mbabazi grassroots activists.

For reasons that one can only speculate about, many in Uganda and elsewhere have found it easy to believe this story and have gone on to tell and rehash it at every opportunity.

It is not easy to prove or disprove claims of this sort. However, knowledge of how politics in Uganda is organised and power managed provides some grounds for scepticism.

First, Mbabazi and Museveni have together run a political outfit in which the flow of information is tightly managed with ample help from state agencies that see no distinction between the NRM and the government.

For Mbabazi to plot against Museveni, he would have either to have forgotten this, or to find the means to ensure that the president does not find out what he is up to. And, having worked with Museveni for over 40 years and been a key actor in his government over the past 28 years, Mbabazi should know well what would happen to him if he engaged in this sort of amateurish plotting and was found out.

Mbabazi couldn’t possibly have forgotten what has happened to those who have dared challenge Museveni directly. Why, assuming he had not been overcome by some kind of madness, would he imagine he would be treated differently?

This is not to rule out the possibility that Mbabazi or people close to him could have been mobilising support for a possible succession project. The question, however, is whether he was mobilising to remove Museveni, or in the belief that the latter would not run again, in which case he would be best placed to win the internal contest to replace him.

Despite being repeatedly humiliated by fellow party members prior to his removal from the Premiership, Mbabazi has shown two qualities that might enable him to have the last laugh at the end of the day.

In the face of extreme provocation even by party members young enough to be his children, the former PM has shown remarkable talent for remaining cool-headed and focused. To a large degree this unflappability has helped him preserve his dignity while exposing some of his detractors as especially ill mannered.

I don’t know the man personally. Nor can I tell if I would vote for him if he ran for president. His capacity for staying cool-headed, however, portrays him as a man cut out for leadership. There is also something else.

Among the many things Ugandans have learnt about the country’s post-1986 leaders is their heightened sense of entitlement, which makes them behave as though they have a right to positions and power that no one else has or should claim.

It tends to manifest most especially in those that do wrong and become the subject of public reprimand, only for them to pompously invoke their “bush war” credentials.

Elsewhere, there are some who when fired take to sulking and conducting themselves as though they expected to be in office forever.

In contrast, not only did Mbabazi courteously thank Museveni for having given him the opportunity to serve, he also quickly reported to parliament and planted himself among fellow backbenchers.

It takes real character for someone who once held three ministerial portfolios simultaneously and went by the moniker “super minister,” to assume his new status with such equanimity. One of these days he may have the last laugh.

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: [email protected]