Despite quit notice on Ecowas, Sahelian bloc of coup boys still need neighbours

As at December, Ecowas had given up placating these countries, likely ending the union that had lasted 49 years. The bloc had tried to dissuade them not to leave but it finally agreed for their exit beginning from January 2025 with a transition period of six months.

These countries all toppled their elected leaders at different times during the Covid-19 season but protested Ecowas’ insistence on democracy and especially returning those elected leaders the militaries here thought they had contributed to bad governance and insecurity.

They then formed the Alliance of Sahel States (ASE) apparently as an alternative to Ecowas. They also ditched France as their traditional military ally just as much as they poked holes in economic ties to their former colonial master.

On December 15, the President of the Ecowas Commission, Dr Omar Touray, announced the six-month grace after the 66th Ordinary Session.

"The authority takes note of the notification by the Republic of Burkina Faso, Republic of Mali and Republic of Niger of their decision to withdraw from Ecowas.

"The authority acknowledges that by the provisions of Article 91 of the revised Ecowas Treaty, the three countries will officially cease to be members of Ecowas from January 29, 2025.

It set January 29, 2025 to July 29, 2025, as a transitional period and to keep Ecowas doors open to the three countries during the transition period. The exit from Ecowas, however, is no more than political.

These three countries share borders with other strong members of Ecowas, including Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire and a host of others with whom they have common cultural and linguistic ties.

They are also land-locked and will need the cooperation of Ghana, Nigeria and Benin to traverse in international trade and maritime business.

Some officials had argued they may try to recruit more members rather than play isolationist, or focus on bilateral ties with coastal states to ensure sea access.

Their foreign policies, however, have been upended. The countries have decided to pitch tents with faraway Russia which they hope could be a better alternative to Western ties.

Read: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger quit Ecowas

But Russia has been a strong backer of their security needs, sending arms, and mercenaries to Mali and Burkina Faso, for example.

The economic ties with Moscow may need time to study. Yet the exit from Ecowas may have an effect on their relationship with neighbours.

This is because most of trade and security a greements have been tunneled through Ecowas including free movement of persons and goods.

Dr Sam Smah, a sociologist said that Niger for instance, in the heart of the Sahel, depends heavily on trade and security with Nigeria providing a chunk of the electricity and social infrastructure, including the building of a transnational rail that would anchor in Niger’s Maradi to facilitate international movement of goods and human from Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali.

Niger has a poorly diversified economy, dependent largely on agriculture, he argued. The extreme poverty remained stagnant at 48.4 percent in 2023 and its inflation rate is projected to increase to 49.9 percent by 2026, the World Bank 2024 updated report says. Those conditions mean they can’t turn away from immediate neighbours just because of quitting the bloc.

“The Sahel countries will be compelled to rely in bilateral negotiation on issues which ordinarily are supposed to be their rights and more Ecowas member countries will have doubt dealing individually with the Sahel,” Prof Jamiu Afolabi of the Institute of International Analyists said.

He said Nigeria may have to scale down its projects in Niger, especially the sale of electricity to the Sahel country, provision of credit and extension of infrastructure including rail and roads.

It could also jeopardise the plan to build a dry port in Kano where goods from the Sahel states would be transported with rail to anchor and be taken to Badagr

And the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in 2023 reports that 4.5 million people, or 17 percent of the population, require humanitarian assistance in Niger, compared to 3.7 million in 2022.

In July 2024, according to UNHCR, Niger hosted almost 968,000 refugees, asylum-seekers and internally displaced people (IDPs).

Devastated by terrorism and banditry, Mali continues to suffer low-income with little diversification and exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices.

On July 26, 2023, a coup in Niger brought in a military regime under the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani who immediately invited Russian private military company Wagner. The security situation remains precarious, however, with a spike in attacks against military forces and infrastructure.

Trade disruptions due to the border closure with Benin have fueled an increase in food prices, causing the year-on-year inflation rate to rise from 1.7 percent in June 2023 to 15.5 percent in June 2024.

Read: Mali stays with West Africa currency zone despite Ecowas exit

According to the 2024 World Bank assessment, Mali’s extreme poverty rate caused by effects of security crises and the pandemic, reached 15.9 percent in 2021.

Extreme poverty worsened further to 19.1 percent in 2022, driven by the erosion of purchasing power among the most vulnerable, due to rising prices, consumption, and low economic growth.

Mali had been experiencing a period of instability and conflict since the 2012 military coup and the occupation of the northern regions by armed groups, conditions that fueled coups.

The President of the ECOWAS Commission, Dr Omar Alieu Touray warned that ECOWAS should not be defined by conflicts, elections and coups, but by development.

Touray said the exiting of ECOWAS by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger will affect citizens of the countries, and other ECOWAS countries, following the need for visas, and the review of all trade and development agreements, including ongoing ECOWAS projects in those countries.